Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 11
Articles | Volume 30, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3529-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-3529-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 11
Research article
 | 
11 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 11 Jun 2026

Projections of future hydrological drought in a reservoir-regulated region: the roles of climate change and reservoir operation

Shaokun He, Sirui Sun, Yanghe Liu, Kebing Chen, Lingling Zhu, and Yu Gong

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Short summary
Climate change and human activities jointly shape river droughts, yet their combined impacts remain uncertain. We pair a data-driven river model with scenario-based climate projections to assess future water shortages in China’s Upper Hanjiang River. We also evaluate improved reservoir operating rules. Results show rising risk of prolonged drought, while refined reservoir operations ease short events but cannot offset long-term deficits, informing resilient water-energy planning.
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