Articles | Volume 30, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2913-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2913-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 May 2026
Research article |
| 18 May 2026
| 18 May 2026
Increasing daily precipitation extremes despite declining annual totals in southern Europe: a modeling study on the effects of Mediterranean Sea warming
Alfonso Senatore
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende 87036, Cosenza, Italy
Luca Furnari
Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende 87036, Cosenza, Italy
Gholamreza Nikravesh
Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende 87036, Cosenza, Italy
Jessica Castagna
Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende 87036, Cosenza, Italy
Giuseppe Mendicino
Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Rende 87036, Cosenza, Italy
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Short summary
Observations and reanalyses show widespread declines in annual precipitation but increases in one-day maxima in Southern Europe. Very high-resolution simulations over a representative Mediterranean sub-region isolate sea surface temperature effects: with all else unchanged, projected warmer seas mainly raise the frequency of heavy rainfall over land by intensifying previously moderate events. For the most extreme cases, mean overland totals change little because peak rainfall remains offshore.
Observations and reanalyses show widespread declines in annual precipitation but increases in...
