Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 30, issue 10
Articles | Volume 30, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2913-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2913-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 30, issue 10
Research article
 | 
18 May 2026
Research article |  | 18 May 2026

Increasing daily precipitation extremes despite declining annual totals in southern Europe: a modeling study on the effects of Mediterranean Sea warming

Alfonso Senatore, Luca Furnari, Gholamreza Nikravesh, Jessica Castagna, and Giuseppe Mendicino

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Latest update: 18 May 2026
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Short summary
Observations and reanalyses show widespread declines in annual precipitation but increases in one-day maxima in Southern Europe. Very high-resolution simulations over a representative Mediterranean sub-region isolate sea surface temperature effects: with all else unchanged, projected warmer seas mainly raise the frequency of heavy rainfall over land by intensifying previously moderate events. For the most extreme cases, mean overland totals change little because peak rainfall remains offshore.
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