A large transient multi-scenario multi-model ensemble of future streamflow and groundwater projections in France

Sauquet, Eric; Evin, Guillaume; Siauve, Sonia; Aissat, Ryma; Arnaud, Patrick; Bérel, Maud; Bonneau, Jérémie; Branger, Flora; Caballero, Yvan; Colléoni, François; Ducharne, Agnès; Gailhard, Joël; Habets, Florence; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Héraut, Louis; Hingray, Benoît; Huang, Peng; Jaouen, Tristan; Jeantet, Alexis; Lanini, Sandra; Le Lay, Matthieu; Magand, Claire; Mimeau, Louise; Monteil, Céline; Munier, Simon; Perrin, Charles; Robelin, Olivier; Rousset, Fabienne; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Strohmenger, Laurent; Thirel, Guillaume; Tocquer, Flore; Tramblay, Yves; Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Vidal, Jean-Philippe

doi:10.5194/hess-30-2277-2026

Articles | Volume 30, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2277-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2277-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 30, issue 8

Research article

|

22 Apr 2026

Research article |

| 22 Apr 2026

A large transient multi-scenario multi-model ensemble of future streamflow and groundwater projections in France

Eric Sauquet, Guillaume Evin, Sonia Siauve, Ryma Aissat, Patrick Arnaud, Maud Bérel, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Yvan Caballero, François Colléoni, Agnès Ducharne, Joël Gailhard, Florence Habets, Frédéric Hendrickx, Louis Héraut, Benoît Hingray, Peng Huang, Tristan Jaouen, Alexis Jeantet, Sandra Lanini, Matthieu Le Lay, Claire Magand, Louise Mimeau, Céline Monteil, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Olivier Robelin, Fabienne Rousset, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Laurent Strohmenger, Guillaume Thirel, Flore Tocquer, Yves Tramblay, Jean-Pierre Vergnes, and Jean-Philippe Vidal

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2277-2026-supplement

Data sets

Ensemble des projections hydrologiques Explore2 (débit) Éric Sauquet et al. https://doi.org/10.57745/YHMBHC

Explore 2 dataset: a set of regionalized and bias corrected climate projections for impact studies over France Paola Marson et al. https://doi.org/10.14768/4aba213f-ad73-431d-b914-88ce1b42468d

Short summary

The Explore2 project has provided an unprecedented set of hydrological projections in terms of the number of hydrological models used and the spatial and temporal resolution. The results have been made available through various media. Under the high-emission scenario, the hydrological models mostly agree on the decrease in seasonal flows in the south of France, confirming its hotspot status, and on the decrease in summer flows throughout France, with the exception of the northern part of France.