Review of “Exploring future water resources and uses considering water demand scenarios and climate change for the French Sèvre Nantaise basin” submitted to Hydrology and Earth System Science for consideration for publication.
The manuscript has been revised. Overall, the manuscript has improved, but still major revisions are required. The authors should critically revise the new added text, which is often not easy to understand. This is in particular the case for the new text in the Discussion. See also the specific comments below. Besides, there are two main points that need revisions, which are both related to the storyline approach.
A large part of the Introduction is about the different approaches that are being used in climate change impact assessments. The authors refer to top-down and bottom-up approaches, which have limitations according to the authors. However, a clear description of the bottom-up approach and its limitations is lacking. Then a number of other approaches are mentioned. In the last paragraph of the Introduction the authors mention their approach, i.e. the storyline-based approach, which was not mentioned before. Please describe in 1 sentence what this approach involves and why it is supposed to be a better alternative to the other approaches mentioned in the Introduction.
Regarding what is finally meant with the storyline approach. It turns out that the authors chose 5 climate change scenarios, with differences in annual and seasonal projections in temperature and precipitation. It is, however, not clearly described why these 5 projections are selected. The authors named their approach the storyline approach. So what are the storylines of each of the projections? This should be described more clearly.
Below I have provided specific comments to the text, figures and tables.
Specific comments
Lines 14: Change “develop” to “developed”.
Lines 21-22: “Only…catchment”, please revise this sentence. It is grammatically not correct and also it is unclear what the authors try to say.
Lines 22-23: To which negative impacts are the authors referring to? Climate change? And what is not fully satisfactory? The authors mean to say that the adaptation measures are not able to fully reduce the negative impacts? Please revise.
Lines 47-48: From this sentence it seems that all hydrological models neglect water uses, which is obviously not the case. Please revise.
Lines 50-51: It would be useful to include here a sentence which describes the main difference between conventional hydrological models and IWRM models.
Lines 54-66: It would be useful to highlight here that WEAP is a lumped model and SWAT a semi-distributed model. Moreover, when reading this paragraph, I’m expecting that the authors use any of the two models, but that is not the case. So why is the model used by the authors not described here?
Lines 73-83: Here the authors describe two different approaches, i.e. top-down and bottom-up. It is relatively well described what is the top-down approach and what is its limitation. However, it is unclear what the authors mean with the bottom-up approach. Moreover, it is not described what is the limitation of this approach.
Line 74: Please change “explosion of uncertainty” to something more scientific.
Line 83: I suggest to start a new paragraph from “An alternative…” onward.
Lines 95-96: What do the authors mean with “cross-referencing water resources and water uses”? And what is meant with “a posteriori comparison”?
Lines 99-100: If this approach (the authors mean incorporation of water uses in hydrological modelling?) is not substantiated by scientific publications, then I suggest to remove this from the manuscript. The manuscript is intended to be published in a scientific journal in which the approaches used should be backed by the scientific literature.
106-108: Of course, the details will follow in the Material and methods, but at least the novelty of the used approach should become clear in this sentence. The authors refer to “a limited number of consistent climate futures”, it is not clear enough what is meant by this. Also, how does this relate to the description of the alternatives for top-down and bottom-up approaches in lines 83-93?
Lines 103-106: Please revise this sentence. There is nothing novel in applying a model that has been applied for over 10 years. Besides, what is actually meant with “highly performing”?
Lines 200-201: What is actually meant by “physically-consistent pathways” in the context of the storyline approach? Most readers will assume that that the storylines have a more socioeconomic origin, this is not the case? If this is not the case, then I suggest to change the name of the approach (i.e. storyline) to something more appropriate.
Lines 203-207: It can be the case that the work for this manuscript has been done in the context of stakeholder consultation or participation, however, by submitting the manuscript to a scientific journal a different approach of presenting the results should be adopted. Looking at the results, there does not seem to be so much difference between the different projections. Moreover, the authors do not present any results related to hydrological extremes. Moreover, there are ways to show the variability within an ensemble.
Line 263: Please replace this sentence with: “Gather and analyse measured water withdrawal and release data”
Lines 264-265: Please replace “we do…Santos et al. (2023)” with “please see Santos et al. (2023) for more details”.
Lines 266-267: Start this sentence with “Propose…models” followed by “, based on…”
Lines 269-270: “measured water withdrawal and release data”
Lines 271-272: Please explain briefly why this is the case.
Figure 2: Please replace “dam reservoir” with “reservoir”. Moreover, please describe in the caption what is shown in the figure, all other details regarding the methods should be described in the text.
Lines 522-524: Please revise this sentence, I do not understand what the authors try to say here, especially from “which a…not counter.”
548: I suggest to change the title to: “On the complexity of catchment-scale water resources management”
Line 549: Also in this sentence I would remove “real-life”.
Lines 567-569: It is a bit unclear what the authors try to say here. What do you mean that you did not have access to the type of irrigation in the catchment? You mean that you could not assess which type of irrigation system is being used in the catchment? And you mean that the processes that are accounted for by SWAT+ could have been implemented in the IWRM model? Please revise.
Line 570: “It is a challenge to implement the complexity of natural and influenced water transfers into the model.”
Lines 570-573: There is no need to repeat all the capabilities of the model here. I suggest to remove this sentence and to start the next sentence with “The airGRiwrm tool gives a very complete representation of…”.
Lines 576-578: With “underground water withdrawals” the authors mean “groundwater withdrawals”? What is actually the relationship between groundwater withdrawals and the exponential reservoir of the GR6J model? You mean that aquifers are not an important source of water within the catchment?
Line 581: Please change the wording of “very performing”.
Lines 584-585: That is why you calibrated the model, why is it important to clarify that here?
Lines 585-586: So what is the benefit of using a conceptual model over a physically-based model? Please elaborate more on this.
Lines 613-621: I’m not sure what the authors try to say here. The French government adopted an approach that has been used for a decade now in climate research, i.e. the use of relative temperature increase scenarios, instead of, for instance, RCP scenarios. This approach has not been used in the current study, because the French report on this was published after the current study was performed, but it could have been used. What can the reader learn from this with respect to the uncertainties of the study? Please revise.
Lines 624-625: Maybe I’m mistaken, but the authors did not choose the 5 used climate projections based on the uncertainty of each individual model. This uncertainty has also not been calculated for all climate projections. So how can this claim be made?
Lines 632-633: The authors mean “the GR6J rainfall-runoff model”? What do the authors mean with that the performance of the model was shown in the past?
Line 635: What do the authors mean with efficiency of the modelling framework? This can mean that the model uses little resources (i.e. a fast model) or can have other meanings. Moreover, to which points are the authors referring?
Lines 640-643: This sentence says that “The impact of water demand evolution…was deemed to be limited on stream flow and water demand satisfaction evolution…”. I do not understand what the authors try to say. Please revise.
Lines 644-646: Why do the authors make here a comparison with continental and global-scale models? This is the first time that this subject is mentioned. I suggest to remove this sentence from the conclusions.
Lines 646-653: Do the results of this study help in this initiative? Or how can this initiative benefit from the results of this work? I’m not sure if this comparison is suited to be included in the conclusions. I suggest to move this to the Discussion section. |
The Santos et al. manuscript presents an interesting study on the integrated water resource management (IWRM) modelling approach to explore the impacts of climate change and future demand scenarios at a catchment in Northwest France. While the overall scientific approach appears to be sound, I have a few comments and suggestions below, which will hopefully improve some aspects of the paper's presentation:
1) The Methods section presents three versions of the hydrological model: calib, uninf, and iwrm. If I understood it correctly, only the calib version of the model is used for parameter calibration and model validation using the observed streamflow data, and the other model variants, uninf and iwrm, do not have the corresponding observed data to gauge their performance. However, Table 5 in the Results section shows the model performance of all three variants. So, what are the uninf and iwrm variants being compared against? And what is the point of showing which model variant performs best? As I understand it, each model variant serves a totally different purpose, and they are not competing against each other.
2) In my opinion, the water demand and release models of the iwrm variant are the most important contribution of this paper. However, more information might be needed to determine the robustness of the water demand and release models presented here. Not much information has been provided about the input data used for the models described in Appendix B. Where has this data been sourced from? Is the model implementation done in spatial grids, or is it spatially lumped at the subcatchment level? The cattle watering model equation allows for information on different cattle types. How many different cattle types were considered? And how is their water demand calculated? The same question applies to the demand calculation for other uses. Also, why does the formula for drinking water demand add cattle and industrial water demands to the population's consumption? Perhaps it might be useful to provide a detailed schematic, maybe at a subcatchment level, of how the different water demand models are feeding into the base hydrological model to create the iwrm variant.
3) Another potentially innovative aspect that has unfortunately been sidelined in the paper is information from the stakeholder workshops. I think more detailed information is needed on how the three future scenarios were initially designed and on the specific value added by the stakeholder feedback. As currently presented, we are only seeing the final product, and the importance of stakeholders in shaping these scenarios for the local conditions is being ignored.
4) Lastly, while the iwrm model presented in this study seems innovative, it is certainly not the first one to have attempted a quantification of future water demand. There have been a large number of studies conducted using other models, most notably WEAP, to address water demand management and forecasting. In this context, I find it troubling that the presented iwrm model, and its results, have not been discussed in the context of other existing models. It would be quite valuable for the authors to discuss the similarities and differences in the specific aspects of their iwrm model and others found in the literature.