Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 3
Articles | Volume 29, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-719-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-719-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 3
Research article
 | 
07 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 07 Feb 2025

Expected annual minima from an idealized moving-average drought index

James H. Stagge, Kyungmin Sung, Irenee Felix Munyejuru, and Md Atif Ibne Haidar

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Short summary
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and related drought indices are used globally to measure drought severity. The index uses a predictable structure, which we leverage to determine the theoretical likelihood of a year with an extreme worse than a given threshold. We show these likelihoods differ by the length (number of months) and resolution (daily vs. monthly) of the index. This is important for drought managers when setting decision thresholds or when communicating risk to the public.
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Drought, society, and ecosystems (NHESS/BG/GC/HESS inter-journal...