Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 21 Nov 2025
| 21 Nov 2025
Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Swinda K. J. Falkena
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Frank Selten
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Related authors
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2063–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Under varying freshwater flux forcing parameters or climate change, the AMOC may collapse from a relatively strong state to a substantially weaker state. It is important to understand the dynamics of the AMOC collapse in the CESM. We show that the stability of the AMOC in the CESM is controlled by only a few feedback processes.
René M. van Westen, Caroline A. Katsman, and Dewi Le Bars
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5102, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) modulates the global climate and dynamic sea level. A transition of the AMOC to a much weaker state would cause a redistribution of dynamic sea level across the global ocean surface. Here, we analyse climate model simulations to investigate dynamic sea-level changes associated with a collapsing AMOC. Under an AMOC collapse, the dynamic sea level rises substantially in the North Atlantic Ocean.
René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 20, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component in the global climate system. Observations of the present-day AMOC indicate that it may weaken or collapse under global warming, with profound disruptive effects on future climate. However, AMOC weakening is not correctly represented because an important feedback is underestimated due to biases in the Atlantic's freshwater budget. Here we address these biases in several state-of-the-art climate model simulations.
Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René M. van Westen, Freddy Bouchet, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Computing the probability of occurrence of rare events is relevant because of their high impact but also difficult due to the lack of data. Rare event algorithms are designed for that task, but their efficiency relies on a score function that is hard to compute. We compare four methods that compute this function from data and measure their performance to assess which one would be best suited to be applied to a climate model. We find neural networks to be most robust and flexible for this task.
Amber Boot, René M. van Westen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 17, 335–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Maud Rise polynya is a hole in the sea ice surrounding Antarctica that occurs during winter. It appeared in 2016 and 2017. Our study concludes that heat and salt accumulation around 1000 m depth are likely to be important for polynya formation. The heat is mixed upward to the surface where it is able to melt the sea ice and, thus, create a polynya. How often the polynya forms depends largely on the variation in the time of the heat and salt accumulation.
René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 16, 1443–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1443-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the mid-1970s and quite recently in 2017, a large open-water area appeared in the Antarctic sea-ice pack, the so-called Maud Rise polynya. From several model studies, the reoccurrence time of this polynya seems arbitrary. In this study, we address the reoccurrence time of the polynya using a high-resolution climate model. We find a preferred multidecadal return time in polynya formation. The return time of the polynya is associated with a large-scale ocean mode in the Southern Ocean.
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2063–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Under varying freshwater flux forcing parameters or climate change, the AMOC may collapse from a relatively strong state to a substantially weaker state. It is important to understand the dynamics of the AMOC collapse in the CESM. We show that the stability of the AMOC in the CESM is controlled by only a few feedback processes.
René M. van Westen, Caroline A. Katsman, and Dewi Le Bars
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5102, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) modulates the global climate and dynamic sea level. A transition of the AMOC to a much weaker state would cause a redistribution of dynamic sea level across the global ocean surface. Here, we analyse climate model simulations to investigate dynamic sea-level changes associated with a collapsing AMOC. Under an AMOC collapse, the dynamic sea level rises substantially in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1833–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The subpolar gyre is a wind-driven circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean that enables the mixing of water between the surface and deeper layers. We investigate the interactions between the strength of the gyre circulation, salinity, temperature, and mixing in climate models. We find that most models capture an increase in salinity or a decrease in temperature, leading to mixing. However, the feedback from the density in the gyre centre to the strength of its circulation is poorly represented.
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic subpolar gyre is a counter-clockwise flowing ocean current that is partly driven by convection. There are indications that the convection in the subpolar gyre region can stop under climate change, with potentially large consequences for the wider North Atlantic. Here, we study a simple model of the subpolar gyre and find that in the scenarios we study, convection never stops permanently. This provides useful context for interpreting more complex models and observations.
Rikke Stoffels, Imme Benedict, Lukas Papritz, Frank Selten, and Chris Weijenborg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1752, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Summertime North Atlantic storms bring heavy rainfall, especially near their centers and along their fronts. By tracking precipitating air parcels back in time we find that the moisture comes from areas of strong ocean evaporation, with hotspots in the Gulf Stream region. We also find that sometimes evaporation in a previous storm can contribute to rainfall in the next. Unlike in winter, summer storms also draw moisture from land, and their properties are partly shaped by former tropical storms.
Jippe J. A. Hoogeveen, Jan Fokke Meirink, and Frank M. Selten
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-418, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the effect of clouds on the reflection of sunlight to space and thermal radiation from earth to space. We found a few possible inhomogeneities in the measurements. A clear decrease in reflection of sunlight was found, which we partly attributed to changes in cloud cover. Thermal radiation could be attributed relatively reliably, however we were unable to find the expected decrease due to greenhouse gasses. We do not know a conclusive cause for this.
Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Frank M. Selten, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1037–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We might be able to constrain uncertainty in future climate projections by investigating variations in the climate of the past. In this study, we investigate the interactions of climate variability between the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and the North Pacific in a warm past climate – the mid-Pliocene, a period roughly 3 million years ago. Using model simulations, we find that, although the variability in El Niño was reduced, the variability in the North Pacific atmosphere was not.
René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 20, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component in the global climate system. Observations of the present-day AMOC indicate that it may weaken or collapse under global warming, with profound disruptive effects on future climate. However, AMOC weakening is not correctly represented because an important feedback is underestimated due to biases in the Atlantic's freshwater budget. Here we address these biases in several state-of-the-art climate model simulations.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Laura Muntjewerf, Richard Bintanja, Thomas Reerink, and Karin van der Wiel
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4581-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4581-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The KNMI Large Ensemble Time Slice (KNMI–LENTIS) is a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with EC-Earth3. It covers two climate scenarios by focusing on two time slices: the present day (2000–2009) and a future +2 K climate (2075–2084 in the SSP2-4.5 scenario). We have 1600 simulated years for the two climates with (sub-)daily output frequency. The sampled climate variability allows for robust and in-depth research into (compound) extreme events such as heat waves and droughts.
Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René M. van Westen, Freddy Bouchet, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Computing the probability of occurrence of rare events is relevant because of their high impact but also difficult due to the lack of data. Rare event algorithms are designed for that task, but their efficiency relies on a score function that is hard to compute. We compare four methods that compute this function from data and measure their performance to assess which one would be best suited to be applied to a climate model. We find neural networks to be most robust and flexible for this task.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Fei Luo, Frank Selten, Kathrin Wehrli, Kai Kornhuber, Philippe Le Sager, Wilhelm May, Thomas Reerink, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 905–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies have identified the weather systems in observational data, where wave patterns with high-magnitude values that circle around the whole globe in either wavenumber 5 or wavenumber 7 are responsible for the extreme events. In conclusion, we find that the climate models are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their associated surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Gijs van Kempen, Karin van der Wiel, and Lieke Anna Melsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-961-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we combine climate model results with a hydrological model to investigate uncertainties in flood and drought risk. With the climate model, 2000 years of
current climatewas created. The hydrological model consisted of several building blocks that we could adapt. In this way, we could investigate the effect of these hydrological building blocks on high- and low-flow risk in four different climate zones with return periods of up to 500 years.
Amber Boot, René M. van Westen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 17, 335–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Maud Rise polynya is a hole in the sea ice surrounding Antarctica that occurs during winter. It appeared in 2016 and 2017. Our study concludes that heat and salt accumulation around 1000 m depth are likely to be important for polynya formation. The heat is mixed upward to the surface where it is able to melt the sea ice and, thus, create a polynya. How often the polynya forms depends largely on the variation in the time of the heat and salt accumulation.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 16, 1443–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1443-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the mid-1970s and quite recently in 2017, a large open-water area appeared in the Antarctic sea-ice pack, the so-called Maud Rise polynya. From several model studies, the reoccurrence time of this polynya seems arbitrary. In this study, we address the reoccurrence time of the polynya using a high-resolution climate model. We find a preferred multidecadal return time in polynya formation. The return time of the polynya is associated with a large-scale ocean mode in the Southern Ocean.
Cited articles
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a
Bellomo, K., Meccia, V. L., D'Agostino, R., Fabiano, F., Larson, S. M., von Hardenberg, J., and Corti, S.: Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model, Climate Dynamics, 61, 3397–3416, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2, 2023. a, b, c, d, e
Ben-Yami, M., Good, P., Jackson, L., Crucifix, M., Hu, A., Saenko, O., Swingedouw, D., and Boers, N.: Impacts of AMOC collapse on monsoon rainfall: A multi-model comparison, Earths Future, 12, e2023EF003959, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003959, 2024. a
Brayshaw, D. J., Woollings, T., and Vellinga, M.: Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC, Journal of Climate, 22, 3146–3155, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2594.1, 2009. a
Chang, P., Zhang, S., Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Fu, H., Wang, H., Castruccio, F. S., Chen, Y., Edwards, J., Fu, D., Jia, Y., Laurindo, L. C., Liu, X., Rosenbloom, N., Small, R. J., Xu, G., Zeng, Y., Zhang, Q., Bacmeister, J., Bailey, D. A., Duan, X., DuVivier, A. K., Li, D., Li, Y., Neale, R., Stössel, A., Wang, L., Zhuang, Y., Baker, A., Bates, S. C., Dennis, J., Diao, X., Gan, B., Gopal, A., Jia, D., Jing, Z., Ma, X., Saravanan, R., Strand, W. G., Tao, J., Yang, H., Wang, X., Wei, Z., and Wu, L.: An unprecedented set of high-resolution earth system simulations for understanding multiscale interactions in climate variability and change, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2020MS002298, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002298, 2020. a
Chen, G., Wang, W.-C., Bao, Q., and Li, J.: Evaluation of simulated cloud diurnal variation in CMIP6 climate models, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 127, e2021JD036422, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036422, 2022. a
Cheng, Y., Huang, M., Zhu, B., Bisht, G., Zhou, T., Liu, Y., Song, F., and He, X.: Validation of the community land model version 5 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033539, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033539, 2021. a
Cook, B. I., Mankin, J. S., Marvel, K., Williams, A. P., Smerdon, J. E., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios, Earths Future, 8, e2019EF001461, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461, 2020. a, b, c, d
Dullaart, J. and van der Wiel, K.: Underestimation of meteorological drought intensity due to lengthening of the drought season with climate change, Environmental Research-Climate, 3, 041004, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad8d01, 2024. a, b, c, d
Falkena, S. K., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A., and Shepherd, T. G.: Revisiting the identification of wintertime atmospheric circulation regimes in the Euro-Atlantic sector, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 2801–2814, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3818, 2020. a, b, c
Franzke, C., Horenko, I., Majda, A. J., and Klein, R.: Systematic metastable atmospheric regime identification in an AGCM, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66, 1997–2012, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS2939.1, 2009. a
Hentgen, L., Ban, N., Kröner, N., Leutwyler, D., and Schär, C.: Clouds in convection-resolving climate simulations over Europe, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 124, 3849–3870, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030150, 2019. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Holm, E., Janiskova, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Radnoti, G., de Rosany, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023a. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7, 2023b. a
Ionita, M., Nagavciuc, V., Scholz, P., and Dima, M.: Long-term drought intensification over Europe driven by the weakening trend of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies, 42, 101176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101176, 2022. a
Jackson, L. C., Kahana, R., Graham, T., Ringer, M. A., Woollings, T., Mecking, J. V., and Wood, R. A.: Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM, Climate Dynamics, 45, 3299–3316, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2, 2015. a, b
Jackson, L. C., Alastrué de Asenjo, E., Bellomo, K., Danabasoglu, G., Haak, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Lee, W., Meccia, V. L., Saenko, O., Shao, A., and Swingedouw, D.: Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023. a, b
Jacob, D., Goettel, H., Jungclaus, J., Muskulus, M., Podzun, R., and Marotzke, J.: Slowdown of the thermohaline circulation causes enhanced maritime climate influence and snow cover over Europe, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023286, 2005. a
Johns, W. E., Baringer, M. O., Beal, L. M., Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Bryden, H. L., Hirschi, J. J. M., Marotzke, J., Meinen, C. S., Shaw, B., and Curry, R.: Continuous, array-based estimates of Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26.5° N, Journal of Climate, 24, 2429–2449, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3997.1, 2011. a
Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in version 4 of the Community Land Model, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 3, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS00045, 2011. a
Laybourn, L., Abrams, J. F., Benton, D., Brown, K., Evans, J., Elliot, J., Swingedouw, D., Lenton, T. M., and Dyke, J. G.: The Blind Spot. Cascading Climate Impacts and Tipping Points Threaten National Security, The Institute for Public Policy Research, http://www.ippr.org/articles/security-blind-spot (last access: 21 February 2025), 2024. a, b, c
Lee, J., Biemond, B., van Keulen, Daan, H. Y., van Westen, R. M., de Swart, H. E., Dijkstra, H. A., and Kranenburg, W. M.: Global increases in salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions, Nature Communications, 16, 3444, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58783-6, 2025. a, b
Levermann, A., Griesel, A., Hofmann, M., Montoya, M., and Rahmstorf, S.: Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation, Climate Dynamics, 24, 347–354, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0505-y, 2005. a
Meccia, V. L., Simolo, C., Bellomo, K., and Corti, S.: Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC, Environmental Research Letters, 19, 014054, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad14b0, 2024. a
Michel, S. L., von der Heydt, A. S., van Westen, R. M., Baatsen, M. L., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Increased wintertime European atmospheric blocking frequencies in General Circulation Models with an eddy-permitting ocean, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 50, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00372-9, 2023. a, b, c
Monteith, J. L.: Evaporation and environment: Symposia of the society for experimental biology, vol. 19, Cambridge University Press (CUP) Cambridge, 205–234, 1965. a
Orihuela-Pinto, B., England, M. H., and Taschetto, A. S.: Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation, Nature Climate Change, 12, 558–565, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01380-y, 2022. a, b, c
Osso, A., Craig, P., and Allan, R. P.: An assessment of CMIP6 climate signals and biases in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture over Europe, International Journal of Climatology, 43, 5698–5719, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8169, 2023. a
Penman, H. L.: Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A-Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 193, 120–145, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1948.0037, 1948. a
Rahmstorf, S. and Ganopolski, A.: Long-term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model, Climatic Change, 43, 353–367, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005474526406, 1999. a
Ritchie, P. D. L., Smith, G. S., Davis, K. J., Fezzi, C., Halleck-Vega, S., Harper, A. B., Boulton, C. A., Binner, A. R., Day, B. H., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Mecking, J. V., Sitch, S. A., Lenton, T. M., and Bateman, I. J.: Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point, Nature Food, 1, 76–83, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0011-3, 2020. a, b, c, d
Romanou, A., Rind, D., Jonas, J., Miller, R., Kelley, M., Russell, G., Orbe, C., Nazarenko, L., Latto, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: Stochastic bifurcation of the North Atlantic circulation under a midrange future climate scenario with the NASA-GISS ModelE, Journal of Climate, 36, 6141–6161, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0536.1, 2023. a
Saini, H., Pontes, G., Brown, J. R., Drysdale, R. N., Du, Y., and Menviel, L.: Australasian hydroclimate response to the collapse of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation under pre-industrial and last interglacial climates, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 40, e2024PA004967, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024PA004967, 2025. a, b
Singer, M., Asfaw, D., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M. O., Miralles, D. G., Quichimbo Miguitama, E., MacLeod, D., and Michaelides, K.: Hourly potential evapotranspiration (hPET) at 0.1degs grid resolution for the global land surface from 1981–present, University of Bristol [data set], https://doi.org/10.5523/bris.qb8ujazzda0s2aykkv0oq0ctp, 2020. a
Singer, M. B., Asfaw, D. T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M. O., Miralles, D. G., MacLeod, D., Quichimbo, E. A., and Michaelides, K.: Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1 resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present, Scientific Data, 8, 224, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9, 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Soden, B. J. and Held, I. M.: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, Journal of Climate, 19, 3354–3360, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3799.1, 2006. a
Sproul, A. B.: Derivation of the solar geometric relationships using vector analysis, Renewable Energy, 32, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2006.05.001, 2007. a
Srokosz, M. A. and Bryden, H. L.: Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises., Science, 348, 1255575–1255575, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255575, 2015. a, b
van der Wiel, K. and Bintanja, R.: Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes, Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00077-4, 2021. a
van der Wiel, K., Batelaan, T. J., and Wanders, N.: Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate, Climate Dynamics, 60, 1781–1800, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06373-3, 2023. a, b, c, d
van Thienen, P., ter Maat, H., and Stofberg, S.: Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe, Cambridge Prisms-Water, 3, e3, https://doi.org/10.1017/wat.2024.14, 2025. a
van Westen, R. M. and Dijkstra, H. A.: Asymmetry of AMOC Hysteresis in a State-Of-The-Art Global Climate Model, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL106088, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106088, 2023. a, b
van Westen, R. M. and Dijkstra, H. A.: Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport, Ocean Sci., 20, 549–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024, 2024. a
van Westen, R. M., Jacques-Dumas, V., Boot, A. A., and Dijkstra, H. A.: The Role of Sea ice Insulation Effects on the Probability of AMOC Transitions, Journal of Climate, 37, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0060.1, 2024a. a, b
van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances, 10, eadk1189, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189, 2024b. a, b, c, d
van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Strongly Eddying Ocean-Only Model, Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL114532, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL114532, 2025a. a
van Westen, R. M., Vanderborght, E., Kliphuis, M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Physics-based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse under Climate Change, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 130, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022651, 2025b. a, b, c, d
van Westen, R. M., van der Wiel, K., Falkena, S. K. J., and Selten, F.: AMOC Hydroclimate Responses in the CESM, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16905376, 2025c. a
Vanderborght, E., van Westen, R. M., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Feedback processes causing an AMOC collapse in the community earth system model, Journal of Climate, 1, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0570.1, 2025. a
Vellinga, M. and Wood, R. A.: Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Climatic Change, 54, 251–267, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016168827653, 2002. a, b
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.: A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, Journal of Climate, 23, 1696–1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2010. a
Wild, M., Dümenil, L., and Schulz, J.-P.: Regional climate simulation with a high resolution GCM: surface hydrology, Climate Dynamics, 12, 755–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050141, 1996. a
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moderates the European climate. The AMOC is a tipping element and may collapse to a substantially weaker state under climate change. Such an event induces global and regional climate shifts. The European hydroclimate becomes drier under an AMOC collapse, this response is not considered in the
standardhydroclimate projections. Our results indicate a considerable influence of the AMOC on the European hydroclimate.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moderates the European climate. The AMOC...
