Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model

van Westen, René M.; van der Wiel, Karin; Falkena, Swinda K. J.; Selten, Frank

doi:10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025

Articles | Volume 29, issue 22

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 29, issue 22

Research article

|

21 Nov 2025

Research article |

| 21 Nov 2025

Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model

René M. van Westen, Karin van der Wiel, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Frank Selten

Data sets

AMOC Hydroclimate Responses in the CESM René M. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16905376

Hourly potential evapotranspiration (hPET) at 0.1degs grid resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present Michael Singer et al. https://doi.org/10.5523/bris.qb8ujazzda0s2aykkv0oq0ctp

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Short summary

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moderates the European climate. The AMOC is a tipping element and may collapse to a substantially weaker state under climate change. Such an event induces global and regional climate shifts. The European hydroclimate becomes drier under an AMOC collapse, this response is not considered in the standard hydroclimate projections. Our results indicate a considerable influence of the AMOC on the European hydroclimate.