Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6373-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6373-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 18 Nov 2025
| 18 Nov 2025
Growth in agricultural water demand aggravates water supply-demand risk in arid Northwest China: more a result of anthropogenic activities than climate change
Yang You
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
Pingan Jiang
Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumuqi 830052, China
Yakun Wang
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
Wene Wang
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
Dianyu Chen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
Xiaotao Hu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comprehensive evaluation of the suitability of groundwater reservoir construction in arid regions on the basis of the PMW–TOPSIS model: a case study of the Tailan River Basin, Xinjiang, China M. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-13036-7
- Resilience-based crop patterns navigate multi-dimensional trade-offs in arid northwestern China K. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115060
- Dormant microbes dominate soils across China and are regulated by water and resource availability X. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03377-3
- Assessment of multi-driver human interventions on streamflow and its components based on information and complexity metrics X. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136394
- A grid-based framework for assessing ecological water requirements in arid inland river basins: A case study of the Tarim River mainstream, China X. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103772
- Quantifying driving mechanisms and spatial optimization of water supply-demand dynamics in humid subtropical regions: Evidence from a typical hilly region of southern China (1996–2023) P. Li & S. Qi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115275
- Physicochemical, biochemical and bacteriological indicators of water quality of Temacine Lake in the Sahara Desert M. Oustani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enmm.2026.101143
- Scenario-based evidence for anthropogenic contributions to future water supply-demand risk in the Songliao Basin Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103620
- Critical Thresholds of Ecosystem Service Responses to Water Supply–Demand Balance in Arid Regions of China: The Kubuqi Desert J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15061032
- The “Greenness-Quality Paradox” in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Disentangling Non-Linear Drivers via Interpretable Machine Learning C. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020363
- The Triple Sustainability Dynamic in Türkiye's Agricultural Sector: Projections Until 2030 on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Water Intensity, and Economic Dynamics E. Karataş https://doi.org/10.15316/selcukjafsci.1913181
- Directional policy alignment in water resources carrying capacity for sustainable city futures in drylands X. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2026.107966
- Hybrid PSO-SVM and symbolic regression model for agricultural water demand prediction H. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-34995-8
- Water-yield supply–demand relationships in Northwest China three water lines region: An InVEST–glacier assessment Y. Gai et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110752
- An asymmetric ecological future: Spatiotemporal differentiation of ecosystem services in Mongolia M. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105672
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Comprehensive evaluation of the suitability of groundwater reservoir construction in arid regions on the basis of the PMW–TOPSIS model: a case study of the Tailan River Basin, Xinjiang, China M. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-026-13036-7
- Resilience-based crop patterns navigate multi-dimensional trade-offs in arid northwestern China K. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115060
- Dormant microbes dominate soils across China and are regulated by water and resource availability X. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03377-3
- Assessment of multi-driver human interventions on streamflow and its components based on information and complexity metrics X. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136394
- A grid-based framework for assessing ecological water requirements in arid inland river basins: A case study of the Tarim River mainstream, China X. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103772
- Quantifying driving mechanisms and spatial optimization of water supply-demand dynamics in humid subtropical regions: Evidence from a typical hilly region of southern China (1996–2023) P. Li & S. Qi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115275
- Physicochemical, biochemical and bacteriological indicators of water quality of Temacine Lake in the Sahara Desert M. Oustani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enmm.2026.101143
- Scenario-based evidence for anthropogenic contributions to future water supply-demand risk in the Songliao Basin Y. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103620
- Critical Thresholds of Ecosystem Service Responses to Water Supply–Demand Balance in Arid Regions of China: The Kubuqi Desert J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15061032
- The “Greenness-Quality Paradox” in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Disentangling Non-Linear Drivers via Interpretable Machine Learning C. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020363
- The Triple Sustainability Dynamic in Türkiye's Agricultural Sector: Projections Until 2030 on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Water Intensity, and Economic Dynamics E. Karataş https://doi.org/10.15316/selcukjafsci.1913181
- Directional policy alignment in water resources carrying capacity for sustainable city futures in drylands X. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2026.107966
- Hybrid PSO-SVM and symbolic regression model for agricultural water demand prediction H. Lv et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-34995-8
- Water-yield supply–demand relationships in Northwest China three water lines region: An InVEST–glacier assessment Y. Gai et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110752
- An asymmetric ecological future: Spatiotemporal differentiation of ecosystem services in Mongolia M. Shi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105672
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Oct 2026
Short summary
By coupling PLUS-InVEST models under 24 climate-land scenarios, we constructed a water supply-demand risk (WSDR) assessment framework to quantify impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resource allocation patterns and associated risks. Results demonstrate that significant cultivated land expansion drives a surge in water demand. The root cause lies in frequent anthropogenic perturbations (land use change), which intensify conflicts between water demand-supply capacity.
By coupling PLUS-InVEST models under 24 climate-land scenarios, we constructed a water...
