Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6373-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6373-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 29, issue 22
Research article
 | 
18 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 18 Nov 2025

Growth in agricultural water demand aggravates water supply-demand risk in arid Northwest China: more a result of anthropogenic activities than climate change

Yang You, Pingan Jiang, Yakun Wang, Wene Wang, Dianyu Chen, and Xiaotao Hu

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Short summary
By coupling PLUS-InVEST models under 24 climate-land scenarios, we constructed a water supply-demand risk (WSDR) assessment framework to quantify impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resource allocation patterns and associated risks. Results demonstrate that significant cultivated land expansion drives a surge in water demand. The root cause lies in frequent anthropogenic perturbations (land use change), which intensify conflicts between water demand-supply capacity.
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