Can large-scale tree cover change negate climate change impacts on future water availability?

Engel, Freek; Hoek van Dijke, Anne J.; Roebroek, Caspar T. J.; Benedict, Imme

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1895-2025

Articles | Volume 29, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1895-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1895-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 29, issue 7

Research article

|

15 Apr 2025

Research article |

| 15 Apr 2025

Can large-scale tree cover change negate climate change impacts on future water availability?

Freek Engel, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Caspar T. J. Roebroek, and Imme Benedict

Data sets

Global evaporation to precipitation flows obtained with Lagrangian atmospheric moisture tracking O. A. Tuinenburg et al. https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.912710

CMIP6 derived ensemble of global vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, and reference evapotranspiration N. Bjarke et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7789759

Tree cover carrying capacity C. T. J. Roebroek et al. https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000637086

Short summary

A warming climate alters the freshwater availability over land, and, due to related tree cover change and potential forestation, this availability can be further enhanced or negated. We find that large-scale change in tree cover may counteract climate-driven changes on a global scale, whereas, regionally, the climate and tree cover impacts can differ extensively. Current ecosystem restoration projects should account for the effects of (re-)forestation on (non-)local water availability.