Articles | Volume 28, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-87-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-87-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 05 Jan 2024
| 05 Jan 2024
Past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe based on convection-permitting climate simulations
Department of Fluvial Morphology, Sediment Dynamics and Management, Federal Institute of Hydrology, 56068 Koblenz, Germany
Michael Haller
Climate and Environment Consultancy, Deutscher Wetterdienst, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Christoph Brendel
Hydrometeorology, Deutscher Wetterdienst, 63067 Offenbach am Main, Germany
Gudrun Hillebrand
Department of Fluvial Morphology, Sediment Dynamics and Management, Federal Institute of Hydrology, 56068 Koblenz, Germany
Thomas Hoffmann
Department of Fluvial Morphology, Sediment Dynamics and Management, Federal Institute of Hydrology, 56068 Koblenz, Germany
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23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing combined sewer overflow performance under climate projections and urban development M. Hauser et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134546
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- A Global Review of Rainfall Erosivity Estimation: Methods, Challenges, and Way Forward M. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-01006-1
- GIS-Based Agricultural Land Use Favorability Assessment in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Apuseni Mountains G. Săvan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14188348
- Assessing Erosion-Triggering Rainfall Patterns in Central Italy: Frequency, Trends, and Implications for Soil Protection L. Vergni & F. Todisco https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010044
- Discrepancies in the effects of the key factors on soil erosion on various temporal scales in the eastern Tibetan Plateau under global warming C. Wei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2026.117805
- Spatial Distribution, Temporal Behaviour, and Trends of Rainfall Erosivity in Central Italy Using Coarse Data F. Todisco et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17060801
- Rainfall amount shapes the soil erosion and vegetation protection effectiveness in soil conservation X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134219
- Long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of global monthly rainfall erosivity derived from daily precipitation data and machine learning (1981–2020) B. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2026.100679
- Dynamic evolution of rainfall erosivity in different rocky desertification areas and analysis of multidimensional driving factors Y. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102492
- Towards the development of bias-corrected rainfall erosivity time series for Europe F. Matthews et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132460
- Evaluation and projected changes in rainfall erosivity: Topography dependence revealed by Convection-Permitting climate projections for the Mediterranean island of Sicily E. Dallan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.108975
- Declining Bank Erosion Rate Driven by Hydrological Alterations of a Small Sub-Alpine River A. Pusztai-Eredics & T. Kiss https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11080114
- Rainfall-induced lateral and vertical microplastic transport of varying sizes in agricultural fields E. Severe et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D5EM00304K
- Effect of cover crops on pluvial flooding: a modelling study in agricultural lowland hill in Slovakia M. Ševčík et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2026.1710617
- Climate driven generative time-varying model for improved decadal storm power predictions in the Mediterranean N. Diodato et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02196-2
- Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion in the Ceyhan Basin Using the RUSLE Model under the SSP5-8.5 Scenario M. Kiliç https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.3.34
- Ерозійна здатність опадів як кліматичний чинник прояву водної ерозії ґрунтового покриву у паркових і лісопаркових насадженнях Львова В. Скробала & О. Дулиба https://doi.org/10.36930/40350208
- Coupled salt and nitrogen dynamics in coastal reservoir-adjacent aquifer systems under extreme rainfall event Y. Mo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2025.104762
- Unravelling the interplay between event frequency and intensity in driving rainfall erosivity future changes: Insights from convection-permitting climate simulations in a mediterranean island A. Ezeaba et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110350
- HESS Opinions: Floods and droughts – are land use, soil management, and landscape hydrology more significant drivers than increasing CO2? K. Auerswald et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2185-2025
- Comparative analysis of rainfall event characteristics and rainfall erosivity between two experimental plots in Austria and Slovenia B. Szeles et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102353
- Grass species diversity reduces water and nutrient loss under simulated extreme precipitation H. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134499
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing combined sewer overflow performance under climate projections and urban development M. Hauser et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134546
- Assessing and designing post-mining landscapes for climate change erosion risk using a landscape evolution model G. Hancock https://doi.org/10.1016/j.teadva.2026.200150
- A Global Review of Rainfall Erosivity Estimation: Methods, Challenges, and Way Forward M. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-01006-1
- GIS-Based Agricultural Land Use Favorability Assessment in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Apuseni Mountains G. Săvan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14188348
- Assessing Erosion-Triggering Rainfall Patterns in Central Italy: Frequency, Trends, and Implications for Soil Protection L. Vergni & F. Todisco https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010044
- Discrepancies in the effects of the key factors on soil erosion on various temporal scales in the eastern Tibetan Plateau under global warming C. Wei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2026.117805
- Spatial Distribution, Temporal Behaviour, and Trends of Rainfall Erosivity in Central Italy Using Coarse Data F. Todisco et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17060801
- Rainfall amount shapes the soil erosion and vegetation protection effectiveness in soil conservation X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134219
- Long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of global monthly rainfall erosivity derived from daily precipitation data and machine learning (1981–2020) B. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2026.100679
- Dynamic evolution of rainfall erosivity in different rocky desertification areas and analysis of multidimensional driving factors Y. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102492
- Towards the development of bias-corrected rainfall erosivity time series for Europe F. Matthews et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132460
- Evaluation and projected changes in rainfall erosivity: Topography dependence revealed by Convection-Permitting climate projections for the Mediterranean island of Sicily E. Dallan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.108975
- Declining Bank Erosion Rate Driven by Hydrological Alterations of a Small Sub-Alpine River A. Pusztai-Eredics & T. Kiss https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11080114
- Rainfall-induced lateral and vertical microplastic transport of varying sizes in agricultural fields E. Severe et al. https://doi.org/10.1039/D5EM00304K
- Effect of cover crops on pluvial flooding: a modelling study in agricultural lowland hill in Slovakia M. Ševčík et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2026.1710617
- Climate driven generative time-varying model for improved decadal storm power predictions in the Mediterranean N. Diodato et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02196-2
- Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion in the Ceyhan Basin Using the RUSLE Model under the SSP5-8.5 Scenario M. Kiliç https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.3.34
- Ерозійна здатність опадів як кліматичний чинник прояву водної ерозії ґрунтового покриву у паркових і лісопаркових насадженнях Львова В. Скробала & О. Дулиба https://doi.org/10.36930/40350208
- Coupled salt and nitrogen dynamics in coastal reservoir-adjacent aquifer systems under extreme rainfall event Y. Mo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2025.104762
- Unravelling the interplay between event frequency and intensity in driving rainfall erosivity future changes: Insights from convection-permitting climate simulations in a mediterranean island A. Ezeaba et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2026.110350
- HESS Opinions: Floods and droughts – are land use, soil management, and landscape hydrology more significant drivers than increasing CO2? K. Auerswald et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2185-2025
- Comparative analysis of rainfall event characteristics and rainfall erosivity between two experimental plots in Austria and Slovenia B. Szeles et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102353
- Grass species diversity reduces water and nutrient loss under simulated extreme precipitation H. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134499
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Jul 2026
Short summary
We calculated past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe from high-resolution precipitation data (3 km and 1 h) generated by the COSMO-CLM convection-permitting climate model. Future rainfall erosivity can be up to 84 % higher than it was in the past. Such increases are much higher than estimated previously from regional climate model output. Convection-permitting simulations have an enormous and, to date, unexploited potential for the calculation of future rainfall erosivity.
We calculated past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe from high-resolution...
