Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3191-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3191-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
Research article
 | 
23 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 23 Jul 2024

Scientific logic and spatio-temporal dependence in analyzing extreme-precipitation frequency: negligible or neglected?

Francesco Serinaldi

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Short summary
Neglecting the scientific rationale behind statistical inference leads to logical fallacies and misinterpretations. This study contrasts a model-based approach, rooted in statistical logic, with a test-based approach, widely used in hydro-climatology but problematic. It reveals the impact of dependence in extreme-precipitation analysis and shows that trends in the frequency of extreme events over the past century in various geographic regions can be consistent with the stationary assumption.
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