Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3191-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3191-2024
Research article
 | 
23 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 23 Jul 2024

Scientific logic and spatio-temporal dependence in analyzing extreme-precipitation frequency: negligible or neglected?

Francesco Serinaldi

Data sets

Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3.26 Matthew J. Menne et al. https://doi.org/10.7289/V5D21VHZ

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Short summary
Neglecting the scientific rationale behind statistical inference leads to logical fallacies and misinterpretations. This study contrasts a model-based approach, rooted in statistical logic, with a test-based approach, widely used in hydro-climatology but problematic. It reveals the impact of dependence in extreme-precipitation analysis and shows that trends in the frequency of extreme events over the past century in various geographic regions can be consistent with the stationary assumption.