Articles | Volume 28, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
15 Mar 2024
Review article |
| 15 Mar 2024
| 15 Mar 2024
A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Seth Westra
School of Architectural and Civil Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Rory Nathan
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Acacia Pepler
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, Australia
National Environmental Science Program Climate System Hub, Sydney, Australia
Timothy H. Raupach
National Environmental Science Program Climate System Hub, Sydney, Australia
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
Andrew Dowdy
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, Australia
National Environmental Science Program Climate System Hub, Sydney, Australia
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Fiona Johnson
Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
Australia Research Council Training Centre in Data Analytics for Resources and Environments, Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
Michelle Ho
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Kathleen L. McInnes
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
Doerte Jakob
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Jason Evans
National Environmental Science Program Climate System Hub, Sydney, Australia
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Kensington, New South Wales, Australia
Gabriele Villarini
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Hayley J. Fowler
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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- Improving event-based methods for modelling flood risk in a variable and non-stationary climate R. Nathan https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0292
- Quantified thermodynamic environments conducive to flash heavy rainfalls during persistent heavy rainfall events under different synoptic patterns over North China Plain since 2000 X. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108884
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- Flood Event Escalation and Urban Drainage Design Implications Under Nonstationary Rainfall in São Paulo State, Brazil A. Brandão et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18050561
- Developing national-scale basic guideline on flood-adaptation strategies under climate change using probabilistic and deterministic factors T. Osawa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2025.123723
- Evaluating a Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model for Dam Inflow and Flood Inundation Forecasting in Extreme Rainfall Events A. Alejandro et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04718-9
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- Recent trends in extratropical lows and their rainfall over Australia A. Pepler & M. Osman https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24002
- Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation in Metropolitan Areas .. Juliastuti et al. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.9070
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- Evaluation of key flood risk drivers under climate change using a bottom-up approach D. O’Shea et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131694
- Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia L. Jayaweera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818
- Scaling relationships between catchment area and peak discharge across the Fitzroy Basin, eastern Australia J. Jaffrés et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135535
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- Cross-regional impact of land and ocean evaporation on extreme precipitation in North China Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103273
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- A research agenda for improving flood resilience in Australia F. Johnson & S. Hettiarachchi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133887
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Understanding the implications of climate change for Australia’s surface water resources: Challenges and future directions C. Wasko et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132221
- Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Urban Watersheds Using Open-Source Bayesian Software: Contrasting Case Studies from Texas C. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18050636
- The impact of climate change on dam overtopping floods in Australia M. Ho et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5851-2025
- Improving event-based methods for modelling flood risk in a variable and non-stationary climate R. Nathan https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0292
- Quantified thermodynamic environments conducive to flash heavy rainfalls during persistent heavy rainfall events under different synoptic patterns over North China Plain since 2000 X. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108884
- Stormwater detention basin design: a review of traditional approaches and current challenges M. Sambito et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2026.2628347
- Increasing probability of record-breaking precipitation: A case-study in the Eastern Italian Alps M. Pesce et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102314
- Temperature scaling of extratropical cyclone precipitation M. Jucker https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae688a
- Modelling non-stationarity in extreme rainfall using large-scale climate drivers L. Jayaweera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131309
- Sponge Landscapes: Flood Adaptation Landscape Type Framework for Resilient Agriculture E. Palazzo https://doi.org/10.3390/land14102023
- Season-Ahead Flood Quantile Forecasting with Climate-Informed Models for Indian Catchments A. Ganapathy et al. https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6750
- Re-estimation of Design Rainfall Under SSP5-8.5 and Implications for Flood Design Standards T. Cheong et al. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2025.25.6.367
- Climate Change Effects on Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Model-based Estimation and Large Ensemble-based Frequency Analysis Y. Hiraga et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133724
- Reconstruction and early warning of flash floods in Zhongdu River, Sichuan Province, China C. Ye et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-025-0280-2
- Flood Event Escalation and Urban Drainage Design Implications Under Nonstationary Rainfall in São Paulo State, Brazil A. Brandão et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18050561
- Developing national-scale basic guideline on flood-adaptation strategies under climate change using probabilistic and deterministic factors T. Osawa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2025.123723
- Evaluating a Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model for Dam Inflow and Flood Inundation Forecasting in Extreme Rainfall Events A. Alejandro et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04718-9
- Mapping resilience: A framework for analysing surface-water dynamics and persistent pools in non-perennial rivers using remote sensing, rainfall and river discharge data T. Tayer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134750
- Recent trends in extratropical lows and their rainfall over Australia A. Pepler & M. Osman https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24002
- Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation in Metropolitan Areas .. Juliastuti et al. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.9070
- Climatological variability of a thunderstorm environment dataset in tropical and temperate regions A. Dowdy et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08076-5
- Changing thunderstorms environments in Saudi Arabia: Frequency, variability and drivers of change M. El Rafei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109186
- Orographic and land-sea contrast effects in convection-permitting simulations of extreme sub-daily precipitation P. Mazzoglio et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100798
- Novel climate analysis methods applied to the Australian ESCI projections data A. Dowdy & A. King https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1492228
- Evaluation of key flood risk drivers under climate change using a bottom-up approach D. O’Shea et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131694
- Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia L. Jayaweera et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818
- Scaling relationships between catchment area and peak discharge across the Fitzroy Basin, eastern Australia J. Jaffrés et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135535
- Groundwater vulnerability and drinking water sustainability under compound hydroclimatic extremes: a spatial analysis of the Magelang volcanic catchment, Indonesia S. Nuranto et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2026.165
- Future precipitation extremes: Differential changes from point to catchment scale revealed by a convection-permitting model ensemble P. Vohnicky et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133822
- Cross-regional impact of land and ocean evaporation on extreme precipitation in North China Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103273
- Detection and spatial modelling of trends in UK rainfall frequency D. Faulkner et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2622458
- A research agenda for improving flood resilience in Australia F. Johnson & S. Hettiarachchi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133887
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Jul 2026
Short summary
In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and...
