Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-787-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
Robert Reinecke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (UNESCO), 56002 Koblenz, Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
60438 Frankfurt, Germany
Hannes Müller Schmied
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
60438 Frankfurt, Germany
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F) Frankfurt, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany
Tim Trautmann
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
60438 Frankfurt, Germany
Lauren Seaby Andersen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31,
14473 Potsdam, Germany
Peter Burek
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Martina Flörke
Institute of Engineering Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Ruhr-University Bochum, 44801 Bochum, Germany
Simon N. Gosling
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD,
United Kingdom
Manolis Grillakis
Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and
Technology Hellas, Rethymno 74100, Greece
Naota Hanasaki
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Aristeidis Koutroulis
School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania 73100, Greece
Yadu Pokhrel
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State
University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824, USA
Wim Thiery
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich,
Universitaetsstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Yoshihide Wada
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Satoh Yusuke
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Petra Döll
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt,
60438 Frankfurt, Germany
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F) Frankfurt, 60325 Frankfurt, Germany
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Cited
69 citations as recorded by crossref.
- DHI-GHM: Real-time and forecasted hydrology for the entire planet A. Murray et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129431
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- Bridging the gap from hydrological to biogeochemical processes using tracer-aided hydrological models in a tropical montane ecosystem J. Pesántez et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129328
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- Salinity impacts on irrigation water-scarcity in food bowl regions of the US and Australia J. Thorslund et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7df4
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- Sustainability of mining activities in the European Mediterranean region in terms of a spatial groundwater stress index E. Varouchakis et al. 10.1016/j.spasta.2022.100625
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- Participatory Bayesian Network modeling of climate change risks and adaptation regarding water supply: Integration of multi-model ensemble hazard estimates and local expert knowledge F. Kneier et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105764
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- Hydrogeochemical evaluation, groundwater contamination and associated health risk in southern Tangail, Bangladesh H. Al- Asad et al. 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.138806
- Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models S. Gnann et al. 10.1038/s44221-023-00160-y
- Competency of groundwater recharge of irrigated cotton field subjacent to sowing methods, plastic mulch, water productivity, and yield under climate change M. Saeed et al. 10.1007/s11356-021-17017-0
- An amplified groundwater recharge response to climate change 10.1038/s41558-024-01955-x
- Ground Truthing Global-Scale Model Estimates of Groundwater Recharge Across Africa C. West et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4184338
- The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle X. Kuang et al. 10.1126/science.adf0630
- Spatiotemporal dynamics of global rain-fed groundwater recharge from 2001 to 2020 S. Nazari et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132490
- Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa C. Chawanda et al. 10.5194/hess-28-117-2024
- Simulation of groundwater-flow dynamics in the U.S. Northern High Plains driven by multi-model estimates of surficial aquifer recharge F. Felfelani et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130703
- Ground truthing global-scale model estimates of groundwater recharge across Africa C. West et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159765
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- Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations J. Boulange et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
- Groundwater Depletion Rate Over China During 1965–2016: The Long‐Term Trend and Inter‐annual Variation Z. Huang et al. 10.1029/2022JD038109
- A Critical Review of Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources: A Focus on the Current Status, Future Possibilities, and Role of Simulation Models V. Davamani et al. 10.3390/atmos15010122
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- Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds E. Dubois et al. 10.3390/cli10010006
- Projected Climate‐Driven Changes of Water Table Depth in the World's Major Groundwater Basins M. Costantini et al. 10.1029/2022EF003068
- On the evaluation of climate change impact models T. Wagener et al. 10.1002/wcc.772
- Climatic and anthropogenic controls on groundwater dynamics in the Mekong River Basin T. Kabir et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129761
- Groundwater is a hidden global keystone ecosystem M. Saccò et al. 10.1111/gcb.17066
- Simulation of national-scale groundwater dynamics in geologically complex aquifer systems: an example from Great Britain M. Bianchi et al. 10.1080/02626667.2024.2320847
- Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration T. Peiris & P. Döll 10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023
- Past and Future Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin: Current Understanding and Future Research Directions J. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.eng.2021.06.026
- The decline in the groundwater table depth over the past four decades in China simulated by the Noah-MP land model M. Li et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127551
- Solar irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa: economic feasibility and development potential G. Falchetta et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acefe5
- Enhancing Groundwater Recharge Through Nature-Based Solutions: Benefits and Barriers M. Kebede et al. 10.3390/hydrology11110195
- Changing Water Cycle under a Warming Climate: Tendencies in the Carpathian Basin I. Jánosi et al. 10.3390/cli11060118
- Reconstructing cave past to manage and conserve cave present and future A. Hughes et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111051
- Understanding process controls on groundwater recharge variability across Africa through recharge landscapes C. West et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127967
- Decline in Iran’s groundwater recharge R. Noori et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42411-2
- Risk of Climate Change for Hydroelectricity Production in China Is Small but Significant Reductions Cannot Be Precluded for More Than a Third of the Installed Capacity W. Wan et al. 10.1029/2022WR032380
- Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology M. Smith et al. 10.1126/science.adk8755
- Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change L. Söller et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1448625
- Projecting China’s future water footprints and water scarcity under socioeconomic and climate change pathways using an integrated simulation approach Y. Sun et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100385
- Indirect effects of revegetation dominate groundwater recharge change at the basin scale X. Yan et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142396
- Ending groundwater overdraft without affecting food security N. Perez et al. 10.1038/s41893-024-01376-w
69 citations as recorded by crossref.
- DHI-GHM: Real-time and forecasted hydrology for the entire planet A. Murray et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129431
- Groundwater recharge is diffuse in semi-arid African drylands: Evidence from highly instrumented observatories J. Sorensen et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131227
- Evaluation of Groundwater Vulnerability in the Upper Kelkit Valley (Northeastern Turkey) Using DRASTIC and AHP-DRASTICLu Models Ü. Yıldırım 10.3390/ijgi12060251
- Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes L. Müller & P. Döll 10.5194/gc-7-121-2024
- Groundwater recharge rate estimation using remotely sensed and ground-based data: A method application in the mesoscale Thur catchment N. Burri et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100972
- Evaluating the impact of projected CO2, temperature, and rainfall change on groundwater resources in a rice–wheat dominated cropping region of northwestern India S. Kumar et al. 10.2166/wcc.2023.062
- Modeling and assessing the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in endorheic basins of Northwest China W. Cheng et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170829
- The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2.2e: description and evaluation of modifications and new features H. Müller Schmied et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al. 10.1029/2021EF002295
- Bridging the gap from hydrological to biogeochemical processes using tracer-aided hydrological models in a tropical montane ecosystem J. Pesántez et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129328
- Making waves: Pulling the plug—Climate change effects will turn gaining into losing streams with detrimental effects on groundwater quality A. Uhl et al. 10.1016/j.watres.2022.118649
- WATER POLLUTION AND AGRICULTURE: MULTI-POLLUTANT PERSPECTIVES M. WANG et al. 10.15302/J-FASE-2023527
- Salinity impacts on irrigation water-scarcity in food bowl regions of the US and Australia J. Thorslund et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7df4
- Forecasting Future Groundwater Recharge from Rainfall Under Different Climate Change Scenarios Using Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning and Ensemble Learning Techniques D. Banerjee et al. 10.1007/s11269-024-03850-8
- Sustainability of mining activities in the European Mediterranean region in terms of a spatial groundwater stress index E. Varouchakis et al. 10.1016/j.spasta.2022.100625
- Influence of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources in Osogbo, Osun State, Nigeria O. Fadipe et al. 10.1007/s40996-024-01389-7
- Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe L. Busschaert et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022
- Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication C. Telteu et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-3843-2021
- Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity W. Berghuijs et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-01953-z
- Projected changes of groundwater levels in northeastern Romania according to climate scenarios for 2020–2100 L. Sfîcă et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101108
- Mapping steady-state groundwater levels in the Mediterranean region: The Iberian Peninsula as a benchmark N. Ben-Salem et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130207
- Participatory Bayesian Network modeling of climate change risks and adaptation regarding water supply: Integration of multi-model ensemble hazard estimates and local expert knowledge F. Kneier et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105764
- Global Recharge Data Set Indicates Strengthened Groundwater Connection to Surface Fluxes W. Berghuijs et al. 10.1029/2022GL099010
- Hydrogeochemical evaluation, groundwater contamination and associated health risk in southern Tangail, Bangladesh H. Al- Asad et al. 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.138806
- Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models S. Gnann et al. 10.1038/s44221-023-00160-y
- Competency of groundwater recharge of irrigated cotton field subjacent to sowing methods, plastic mulch, water productivity, and yield under climate change M. Saeed et al. 10.1007/s11356-021-17017-0
- An amplified groundwater recharge response to climate change 10.1038/s41558-024-01955-x
- Ground Truthing Global-Scale Model Estimates of Groundwater Recharge Across Africa C. West et al. 10.2139/ssrn.4184338
- The changing nature of groundwater in the global water cycle X. Kuang et al. 10.1126/science.adf0630
- Spatiotemporal dynamics of global rain-fed groundwater recharge from 2001 to 2020 S. Nazari et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132490
- Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa C. Chawanda et al. 10.5194/hess-28-117-2024
- Simulation of groundwater-flow dynamics in the U.S. Northern High Plains driven by multi-model estimates of surficial aquifer recharge F. Felfelani et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130703
- Ground truthing global-scale model estimates of groundwater recharge across Africa C. West et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159765
- Uncertainty in model estimates of global groundwater depth R. Reinecke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8587
- Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations J. Boulange et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
- Groundwater Depletion Rate Over China During 1965–2016: The Long‐Term Trend and Inter‐annual Variation Z. Huang et al. 10.1029/2022JD038109
- A Critical Review of Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources: A Focus on the Current Status, Future Possibilities, and Role of Simulation Models V. Davamani et al. 10.3390/atmos15010122
- ‘Overuse-charge’ agricultural water price mechanism in groundwater overdraft areas W. Xiqin et al. 10.2166/wp.2021.195
- Uncertainties in chloride-based tracing methods for deep drainage estimation under shallow- and deep-rooted plants Y. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128226
- Global evaluation of model agreement and uncertainty in terrestrial water storage simulations from ISIMIP 2b framework J. Ju et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129137
- Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia) S. Ben Nsir et al. 10.3390/w14142242
- Enhancing groundwater recharge in drinking water protection zones in Flanders (Belgium): A novel approach to assess stormwater managed aquifer recharge potential L. Speijer et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101747
- Changes in mean evapotranspiration dominate groundwater recharge in semi-arid regions T. Turkeltaub & G. Bel 10.5194/hess-28-4263-2024
- A 500-year annual runoff reconstruction for 14 selected European catchments S. Nasreen et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4035-2022
- A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector M. Golub et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
- Predictive analysis of groundwater balance and assessment of safe yield using a probabilistic groundwater model for the Dead Sea Basin D. Al Atawneh et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1380877
- Evaluating CO2 effects on semi-empirical and empirical stomatal conductance simulation in land surface models N. Chitsaz et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129385
- An ensemble approach for predicting future groundwater levels in the Zagreb aquifer impacted by both local recharge and upstream river flow O. Larva et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128433
- Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds E. Dubois et al. 10.3390/cli10010006
- Projected Climate‐Driven Changes of Water Table Depth in the World's Major Groundwater Basins M. Costantini et al. 10.1029/2022EF003068
- On the evaluation of climate change impact models T. Wagener et al. 10.1002/wcc.772
- Climatic and anthropogenic controls on groundwater dynamics in the Mekong River Basin T. Kabir et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129761
- Groundwater is a hidden global keystone ecosystem M. Saccò et al. 10.1111/gcb.17066
- Simulation of national-scale groundwater dynamics in geologically complex aquifer systems: an example from Great Britain M. Bianchi et al. 10.1080/02626667.2024.2320847
- Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration T. Peiris & P. Döll 10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023
- Past and Future Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin: Current Understanding and Future Research Directions J. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.eng.2021.06.026
- The decline in the groundwater table depth over the past four decades in China simulated by the Noah-MP land model M. Li et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127551
- Solar irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa: economic feasibility and development potential G. Falchetta et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acefe5
- Enhancing Groundwater Recharge Through Nature-Based Solutions: Benefits and Barriers M. Kebede et al. 10.3390/hydrology11110195
- Changing Water Cycle under a Warming Climate: Tendencies in the Carpathian Basin I. Jánosi et al. 10.3390/cli11060118
- Reconstructing cave past to manage and conserve cave present and future A. Hughes et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111051
- Understanding process controls on groundwater recharge variability across Africa through recharge landscapes C. West et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127967
- Decline in Iran’s groundwater recharge R. Noori et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42411-2
- Risk of Climate Change for Hydroelectricity Production in China Is Small but Significant Reductions Cannot Be Precluded for More Than a Third of the Installed Capacity W. Wan et al. 10.1029/2022WR032380
- Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology M. Smith et al. 10.1126/science.adk8755
- Groundwater stress in Europe—assessing uncertainties in future groundwater discharge alterations due to water abstractions and climate change L. Söller et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1448625
- Projecting China’s future water footprints and water scarcity under socioeconomic and climate change pathways using an integrated simulation approach Y. Sun et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100385
- Indirect effects of revegetation dominate groundwater recharge change at the basin scale X. Yan et al. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142396
- Ending groundwater overdraft without affecting food security N. Perez et al. 10.1038/s41893-024-01376-w
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 27 Dec 2024
Short summary
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Groundwater recharge is the primary process of regenerating groundwater resources. We find that groundwater recharge will increase in northern Europe by about 19 % and decrease by 10 % in the Amazon with 3 °C global warming. In the Mediterranean, a 2 °C warming has already lead to a reduction in recharge by 38 %. However, these model predictions are uncertain.
Billions of people rely on groundwater as an accessible source of drinking water and for...