Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation  in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River

Lu, You; Tian, Fuqiang; Guo, Liying; Borzì, Iolanda; Patil, Rupesh; Wei, Jing; Liu, Dengfeng; Wei, Yongping; Yu, David J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021

Articles | Volume 25, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Socio-hydrology and transboundary rivers

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 4

Research article

|

09 Apr 2021

Research article |

| 09 Apr 2021

Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River

You Lu, Fuqiang Tian, Liying Guo, Iolanda Borzì, Rupesh Patil, Jing Wei, Dengfeng Liu, Yongping Wei, David J. Yu, and Murugesu Sivapalan

Download

Final revised paper (published on 09 Apr 2021)
Preprint (discussion started on 10 Aug 2020)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of "Socio-Hydrologic Modeling of the Dynamics of Cooperation in the Transboundary Lancang-Mekong River"', Gopal Penny, 25 Sep 2020
- AC1: 'Interactive comment on "Socio-Hydrologic Modeling of the Dynamics of Cooperation in the Transboundary Lancang-Mekong River" by You Lu et al.', Fuqiang Tian, 23 Nov 2020
RC2: 'Review hess-2020-388', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Nov 2020
- AC2: 'Interactive comment on "Socio-Hydrologic Modeling of the Dynamics of Cooperation in the Transboundary Lancang-Mekong River" by You Lu et al.', Fuqiang Tian, 23 Nov 2020
RC3: 'Review of Socio-Hydrologic Modeling of the Dynamics of Cooperation in the Transboundary Lancang-Mekong River', Anonymous Referee #3, 23 Nov 2020
- AC3: 'Interactive comment on “Socio-Hydrologic Modeling of the Dynamics of Cooperation in the Transboundary Lancang-Mekong River” by You Lu et al.', Fuqiang Tian, 28 Nov 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (07 Dec 2020) by Giuliano Di Baldassarre

AR by Fuqiang Tian on behalf of the Authors (03 Jan 2021) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Jan 2021) by Giuliano Di Baldassarre

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (13 Feb 2021)

RR by Gopal Penny (22 Feb 2021)

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

My primary concerns with the original manuscript were that (i) it was unclear how the authors envisioned translating this model to other transboundary basins, and (ii) the paper lacked an adequate description of parameter selection and calibration.

The first concern (i) has been addressed within the manuscript conclusions. The authors have mostly addressed the second concern (ii) pertaining to parameter selection and calibration by describing their process throughout Section 3 and adding a new table (Table 3) that shows the value of key parameters and the range used in the uncertainty analysis. There are a couple of minor points that should still be addressed, as I describe in the comments below.

1. The distinction between parameter selection versus parameter calibration for P is unclear given differences between the author response and the manuscript. The authors’ response states:

“As for the parameters in policy feedback module, such as political factor P, responsive change rate s, and sensitivity of agriculture loss and fishery loss 𝜀𝑎 and 𝜀𝑓, they should be “calibrated” so that the simulated cooperation demand and cooperation level are consistent with reality and sentiment analysis data.”

This appears to contradict the manuscript, which states (L484):

“The parameters in the policy feedback are defined a priori because there is limited research and knowledge at present on the quantification of cooperation and political benefits, which need further investigation.”

2. In the uncertainty analysis (Fig. 12), why is there no effect of the China Political Factor on cooperation demand? Perhaps this has to do with the logistic structure of the model for the change in cooperation level C, but nevertheless this counters the narrative that indirect political benefits to China (and therefore willingness to cooperate) relieved economic pressure (and therefore cooperation demand) in downstream countries. This should be clarified.

Hide

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (02 Mar 2021) by Giuliano Di Baldassarre

AR by Fuqiang Tian on behalf of the Authors (07 Mar 2021) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.