Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 20 Nov 2020
| 20 Nov 2020
Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East
Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of
Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Feng Ma
School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of
Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton
University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
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- Recent warm-season dryness/wetness dominated by hot-dry wind in Northern China Y. Feng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130436
- An Assessment of the Coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological Model on Streamflow Simulations over the Source Region of the Yellow River Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040468
- Assessing global drought conditions under climate change: A comparison of stationary and non-stationary approaches and identification of hotspot regions D. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131663
- Scrutinise the variations of glaciers and their climatic attributions in the Sanjiangyuan National Park during 1969–2018 L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.007
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- An integrative analysis of hydroclimatic elements in the three-river source region for historical and future periods: Shift toward an intensified hydrological cycle R. Mahmood et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2024.01.005
- Climate warming outweighs vegetation greening in intensifying flash droughts over China M. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fb
- Global terrestrial drought and its projected socioeconomic implications under different warming targets N. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174292
- Less concentrated precipitation and more extreme events over the Three River Headwaters region of the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate J. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107311
- Development and evaluation of temperature-induced variable source area runoff generation model L. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127894
- High‐Resolution Land Surface Modeling of the Effect of Long‐Term Urbanization on Hydrothermal Changes Over Beijing Metropolitan Area P. Ji et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034787
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- Changes and drivers of long-term land evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin: A water balance perspective H. Bai et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132763
- Bias Correction for Precipitation Simulated by RegCM4 over the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the Mixed Distribution Quantile Mapping Method B. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121566
- Diurnal variation of summer precipitation in the Sanjiangyuan region, China: a moisture perspective X. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07843-0
- Evaluating Land Surface Temperature Variation and Its Responses to Climate Change and Human Activities on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau X. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15313
- Divergent Drying Mechanisms in Humid and Non-Humid Regions Across China Y. Feng & X. Mou https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16224193
38 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations G. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002542
- Characterization and projection of spatial and temporal changes in habitat quality of Sanjiangyuan based on land use change R. Jiang & J. Liu https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-024-2271-6
- Can the water vapor from the hinterland Tibetan Plateau affect the cloud and precipitation of the Source Region of the Three Rivers? Z. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-08015-w
- Moisture source anomalies connected to flood‐drought changes over the three‐rivers headwater region of Tibetan Plateau R. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8147
- Projected Drought Prevalence in Malawi’s Lufilya Catchment: A Study Using Regional Climate Models and the SPI Method L. Kumwenda et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16243548
- Impacts of climate warming on global floods and their implication to current flood defense standards J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129236
- High-resolution land surface modeling of the irrigation effects on evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin C. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130986
- Optimal reliability ensemble averaging approach for robust climate projections over China Y. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8485
- Direct vegetation response to CO2 rise is critical in projecting seasonal soil moisture droughts in mainland China S. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133639
- Recent warm-season dryness/wetness dominated by hot-dry wind in Northern China Y. Feng et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130436
- An Assessment of the Coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological Model on Streamflow Simulations over the Source Region of the Yellow River Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040468
- Assessing global drought conditions under climate change: A comparison of stationary and non-stationary approaches and identification of hotspot regions D. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131663
- Scrutinise the variations of glaciers and their climatic attributions in the Sanjiangyuan National Park during 1969–2018 L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2022.06.007
- Hydrological response to climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region T. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023
- Quantifying the Impacts of Land Use/Cover and Climate Change on Water Conservation in the Source Region of the Yellow River Y. Su et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15050876
- Light use efficiency models incorporating diffuse radiation impacts for simulating terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity: A global comparison H. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109376
- Elevation dependency of snowfall changes under climate change over the Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from CMIP6 GCMs Y. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107832
- Quantitative analysis of input data uncertainty for SPI and SPEI in Peninsular Malaysia based on the bootstrap method Y. Tan et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2232348
- Accelerated hydrological cycle on the Tibetan Plateau evidenced by ensemble modeling of Long-term water budgets Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128710
- Divergent Trends of Open Surface Water Body Area of River and Lake Dominated Regions in the Yangtze River Basin from 1986 to 2022 Y. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17061008
- Future hydrological drought changes over the upper Yellow River basin: The role of climate change, land cover change and reservoir operation P. Ji et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129128
- An integrative analysis of hydroclimatic elements in the three-river source region for historical and future periods: Shift toward an intensified hydrological cycle R. Mahmood et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2024.01.005
- Climate warming outweighs vegetation greening in intensifying flash droughts over China M. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fb
- Global terrestrial drought and its projected socioeconomic implications under different warming targets N. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174292
- Less concentrated precipitation and more extreme events over the Three River Headwaters region of the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate J. Du et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107311
- Development and evaluation of temperature-induced variable source area runoff generation model L. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127894
- High‐Resolution Land Surface Modeling of the Effect of Long‐Term Urbanization on Hydrothermal Changes Over Beijing Metropolitan Area P. Ji et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034787
- Hydrological alterations driven by climate change and human activities: historical attribution, future projections, and process mechanisms in the Daqing River Basin, China X. Song et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2026.124
- Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin W. Zeng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14126989
- Increasing Socioeconomic Exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events Under a Warming Climate in the Yangtze River Basin J. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162411264
- Decomposing riverine nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes into different frequency classes along the Yangtze River, China W. Gao & Z. Duan https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2025.04.027
- CMIP6 projects less frequent seasonal soil moisture droughts over China in response to different warming levels S. Chen & X. Yuan https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe782
- Temporal and spatial changes in hydrological wet extremes of the largest river basin on the Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8dc
- Changes and drivers of long-term land evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin: A water balance perspective H. Bai et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132763
- Bias Correction for Precipitation Simulated by RegCM4 over the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the Mixed Distribution Quantile Mapping Method B. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121566
- Diurnal variation of summer precipitation in the Sanjiangyuan region, China: a moisture perspective X. Yao et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07843-0
- Evaluating Land Surface Temperature Variation and Its Responses to Climate Change and Human Activities on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau X. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15313
- Divergent Drying Mechanisms in Humid and Non-Humid Regions Across China Y. Feng & X. Mou https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16224193
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 11 Jun 2026
Short summary
By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models,...
