Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 14 Nov 2020
| 14 Nov 2020
Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA),
Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022, Valencia, Spain
Abel Solera
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA),
Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022, Valencia, Spain
Jaime Madrigal
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA),
Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022, Valencia, Spain
Joaquín Andreu
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA),
Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022, Valencia, Spain
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA),
Universitat Politècnica de València, 46022, Valencia, Spain
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- Habitat alteration assessment for the management of environmental flows in regulated basins J. Pardo-Loaiza et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115653
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- Graphical representation of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty to enable better policy making in hydrological disaster management J. George & P. Athira https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105449
- A national hydrological projections service for Australia L. Wilson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100331
- Adaptive management of water resources system in the arid Aksu river basin, northwest China P. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138185
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- Climate Change Risks on Mediterranean River Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures (Spain) C. Estrela-Segrelles et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03469-1
- A Water Shortage Risk Assessment Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation and Copulas T. Qian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111465
- From global climate models to local water stress: A framework for estimating future water availability in the Mediterranean L. Garrote et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102960
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25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought response in CORDEX models- case of Rio Angulo basin G. Fernández et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02487-9
- A large-sample modelling approach towards integrating streamflow and evaporation data for the Spanish catchments P. Yeste et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5331-2024
- Assessment of potential water availability in the Ebro basin under future climate scenarios I. Granados et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23863781.2025.2544676
- Assessing the impact of AI-based meteorological postprocessing on seasonal hydrological forecasting skill in Mediterranean semi-arid basins D. De León Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103535
- Efecto del cambio climático en la calidad del agua de la Cuenca del Júcar S. Suárez-Almiñana et al. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2021.14644
- Habitat alteration assessment for the management of environmental flows in regulated basins J. Pardo-Loaiza et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115653
- Integrating seasonal forecasts into real-time drought management: Júcar River Basin case study S. Suárez-Almiñana et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102777
- Review of risk analysis and management practices for urban water utilities’ sustainability and resilience M. Aslam et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04835-5
- Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) G. Gómez-Martínez et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172424
- Graphical representation of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty to enable better policy making in hydrological disaster management J. George & P. Athira https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105449
- A national hydrological projections service for Australia L. Wilson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100331
- Adaptive management of water resources system in the arid Aksu river basin, northwest China P. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138185
- Improving regional hydrological modeling in the Iberian Peninsula using the VIC model and optimized WRF/Noah-MP parameterizations N. Tacoronte et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104274
- How Good Are Drought Forecasts? Skill of multi-model Seasonal Forecast of Meteorological Droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean Basin D. Avila-Velasquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00965-9
- El rol del sistema soporte de decisión AQUATOOL en la gestión de sequías en España J. Andreu et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23863781.2026.2729720
- A deep learning-based probabilistic framework for streamflow prediction and water quality assessment A. Mena et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135934
- Exploring inconsistent and susceptible reservoir storage areas using frequency and rule-based decision tree approach S. Pal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101146
- The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Sector in Spain J. Albiac et al. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2382624X25400132
- A Review of Assessment Methods for Water Shortage Risk: Trend Analysis, Method Summary, and Future Research Prospects T. Qian et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-024-00332-1
- Comparative Governance and Policy Effectiveness in Drought Management: Lessons from Two Regions in Ecuador and Spain S. Megens & J. Olcina https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.7093
- Climate Change Risks on Mediterranean River Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures (Spain) C. Estrela-Segrelles et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03469-1
- A Water Shortage Risk Assessment Model Based on Kernel Density Estimation and Copulas T. Qian et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111465
- From global climate models to local water stress: A framework for estimating future water availability in the Mediterranean L. Garrote et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102960
- Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change P. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114394
- A multi-sourced assessment of the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil moisture in the MARINE flash flood model J. Eeckman et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 12 Nov 2026
Short summary
This work responds to the need for an effective methodology that integrates climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making. This general approach is based on a model chain for management and drought risk assessments and applied to the Júcar River basin (Spain), showing a worrying deterioration of the basin's future water resources availability and drought indicators, despite a considerable uncertainty of results from the mid-century onwards.
This work responds to the need for an effective methodology that integrates climate change...
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