Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3335-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3335-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
Research article
 | 
14 Aug 2019
Research article |  | 14 Aug 2019

Potential application of hydrological ensemble prediction in forecasting floods and its components over the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, China

Li Liu, Yue Ping Xu, Su Li Pan, and Zhi Xu Bai

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Short summary
The ensemble flood forecasting system can skillfully predict annual maximum floods with a lead time of more than 10 d and has skill in forecasting the snowmelt-related components about 7 d ahead. The accuracy of forecasts for the annual first floods is inferior, with a lead time of only 5 d. The snowmelt-induced surface runoff is the most poorly captured component by the system, and the well-predicted rainfall-related components are the major contributor to good performance.
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