Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany:  development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model

Ehmele, Florian; Kunz, Michael

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019

Articles | Volume 23, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 2

Research article

|

25 Feb 2019

Research article |

| 25 Feb 2019

Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model

Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz

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Final revised paper (published on 25 Feb 2019)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 16 Apr 2018)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Recommendation to "Flood-Related Extreme Precipitation in Southwestern Germany: Development of a Two-Dimensional Stochastic Precipitation Model"', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 May 2018
- AC3: 'Response to RC1', Florian Ehmele, 09 Jul 2018
RC2: 'On the paper by Ehmele and Kunz', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 May 2018
- AC2: 'Response to RC2', Florian Ehmele, 09 Jul 2018
RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #3, 30 May 2018
- AC1: 'Response to RC3', Florian Ehmele, 09 Jul 2018
EC1: 'Interesting manuscript but major revisions needed', Jan Seibert, 10 Jul 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (10 Jul 2018) by Jan Seibert

AR by Florian Ehmele on behalf of the Authors (02 Aug 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Aug 2018) by Jan Seibert

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (05 Sep 2018)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (06 Sep 2018)

RR by Nadav Peleg (15 Nov 2018)

ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (16 Nov 2018) by Jan Seibert

AR by Florian Ehmele on behalf of the Authors (19 Dec 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Dec 2018) by Jan Seibert

RR by Nadav Peleg (22 Dec 2018)

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

Dear Authors,

The current version of the manuscript is much improved in comparison to the original version. The Authors did reply to all my comments satisfactory. From my side, there is only one minor issue that remain unsolved. The paper present a new stochastic gridded rainfall model, and the motivation for it is well described - the need to generate multiple realizations to address extreme rainfall events. However, the Authors ignore the fact that there are many weather generators, stochastic and 2-dimensional, which are already available. This is explicitly written in Page 2 Line 10-13: "... Albeit considering the long-term variability of precipitation, which leads to more reliable estimates for extremes, these approaches still lack spatial representativeness". This statement is simple not true. There are several models that produce the same output as your model, and even at much higher space-time resolution (sub-daily, sub-kilometer), to name a few: STORM (Singer et al., 2018), STREAP (Paschalis et al., 2013) that is an advanced version of the "String of Beads" models (Pegram and Clothier, 2001), AWE-GEN-2d (Peleg et al., 2017) and a model recently presented by Benoit et al. (2018). I suggest the Authors to acknowledge the fact that there are other stochastic 2-dimensional rainfall models in the market, and to explicitly discuss the advantages of the model suggested here in comparison to the others. As I see it, the model suggested by the Author is a semi-physical model, thus can be consider more "robust" than the other stochastic models I listed abode that are statistically based. I suggest the Authors to mention something in this direction at the introduction and conclusions sections. Other than that I think the manuscript is ready for publication.

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ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (05 Feb 2019) by Jan Seibert

AR by Florian Ehmele on behalf of the Authors (08 Feb 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (11 Feb 2019) by Jan Seibert

AR by Florian Ehmele on behalf of the Authors (12 Feb 2019)

Short summary

The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.