Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products
José Miguel Delgado
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Sebastian Voss
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Gerd Bürger
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Klaus Vormoor
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Aline Murawski
German Research Centre of Geosciences GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
José Marcelo Rodrigues Pereira
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil
Eduardo Martins
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil
Francisco Vasconcelos Júnior
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil
Till Francke
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil J. Pontes Filho et al. 10.3390/w12030834
- Regional-scale seasonal forecast of surface water availability in a semi-arid environment: The case of Ceará State in Northeast of Brazil E. Rottler et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102058
- Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 2: Model Performance for Historical Seasonal Forecasts F. Vasconcelos Junior et al. 10.1002/joc.8725
- Use of Climate Information in Water Allocation: A Case of Study in a Semiarid Region J. Pereira et al. 10.3390/w15132460
- Rainfall Prediction in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil Using Generalized Additive Models L. Dantas et al. 10.3390/w12092478
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al. 10.1007/s40333-021-0097-y
- Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T. Pilz et al. 10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
- Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks E. Pinheiro & T. Ouarda 10.1038/s41598-023-47841-y
- Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain) T. Van Hateren et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105206
- Estimates of groundwater depletion under extreme drought in the Brazilian semi-arid region using GRACE satellite data: application for a small-scale aquifer M. Melati et al. 10.1007/s10040-019-02065-1
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil J. Pontes Filho et al. 10.3390/w12030834
- Regional-scale seasonal forecast of surface water availability in a semi-arid environment: The case of Ceará State in Northeast of Brazil E. Rottler et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102058
- Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 2: Model Performance for Historical Seasonal Forecasts F. Vasconcelos Junior et al. 10.1002/joc.8725
- Use of Climate Information in Water Allocation: A Case of Study in a Semiarid Region J. Pereira et al. 10.3390/w15132460
- Rainfall Prediction in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil Using Generalized Additive Models L. Dantas et al. 10.3390/w12092478
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al. 10.1007/s40333-021-0097-y
- Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T. Pilz et al. 10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019
- Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks E. Pinheiro & T. Ouarda 10.1038/s41598-023-47841-y
- Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain) T. Van Hateren et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105206
Latest update: 04 Feb 2025
Short summary
The feasibility of drought prediction is assessed in the Brazilian northeast. The models were provided by a regional agency and a European meteorological agency and downscaling was done using three empirical models. This work showed that the combination of different forecast and downscaling models can provide skillful predictions of drought events on timescales relevant to water managers. But the models also showed little to no skill for quantitative predictions of monthly precipitation.
The feasibility of drought prediction is assessed in the Brazilian northeast. The models were...