Articles | Volume 22, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Sep 2018
Research article |
| 28 Sep 2018
| 28 Sep 2018
Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products
José Miguel Delgado
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Sebastian Voss
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Gerd Bürger
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Klaus Vormoor
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Aline Murawski
German Research Centre of Geosciences GFZ Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
José Marcelo Rodrigues Pereira
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil
Eduardo Martins
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil
Francisco Vasconcelos Júnior
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources – FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil
Till Francke
Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil J. Pontes Filho et al.
- A Bivariate Return Period Copula Application of Flood Peaks and Volumes for Climate Adaptation in Semi-Arid Regions T. Studart et al.
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al.
- Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T. Pilz et al.
- Integrating Regressive and Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasting via a Hybrid Hydrological Forecasting System: Application to the Paraíba do Sul River Basin G. França et al.
- Time Lags Between Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Evaluating Indicator Scales and Propagation Patterns G. de Medeiros et al.
- Enhancing Drought Prediction in Semi-Arid Climates: A Synthetic Data and Neural Network Approach Applied to Karaman Region, Turkey A. Duvan & S. Yildizel
- Regional-scale seasonal forecast of surface water availability in a semi-arid environment: The case of Ceará State in Northeast of Brazil E. Rottler et al.
- Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 2: Model Performance for Historical Seasonal Forecasts F. Vasconcelos Junior et al.
- Groundwater access reduces water insecurity and diarrhea hospitalizations in the drought-affected tropical drylands of Ceará, Brazil T. de Sousa et al.
- Use of Climate Information in Water Allocation: A Case of Study in a Semiarid Region J. Pereira et al.
- Rainfall Prediction in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil Using Generalized Additive Models L. Dantas et al.
- Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks E. Pinheiro & T. Ouarda
- Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain) T. Van Hateren et al.
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Copula-Based Multivariate Frequency Analysis of the 2012–2018 Drought in Northeast Brazil J. Pontes Filho et al.
- A Bivariate Return Period Copula Application of Flood Peaks and Volumes for Climate Adaptation in Semi-Arid Regions T. Studart et al.
- Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting of large dryland catchments in Brazil A. Costa et al.
- Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T. Pilz et al.
- Integrating Regressive and Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasting via a Hybrid Hydrological Forecasting System: Application to the Paraíba do Sul River Basin G. França et al.
- Time Lags Between Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Evaluating Indicator Scales and Propagation Patterns G. de Medeiros et al.
- Enhancing Drought Prediction in Semi-Arid Climates: A Synthetic Data and Neural Network Approach Applied to Karaman Region, Turkey A. Duvan & S. Yildizel
- Regional-scale seasonal forecast of surface water availability in a semi-arid environment: The case of Ceará State in Northeast of Brazil E. Rottler et al.
- Simple GCM Simulations of Rainfall Over Northeast Brazil, Part 2: Model Performance for Historical Seasonal Forecasts F. Vasconcelos Junior et al.
- Groundwater access reduces water insecurity and diarrhea hospitalizations in the drought-affected tropical drylands of Ceará, Brazil T. de Sousa et al.
- Use of Climate Information in Water Allocation: A Case of Study in a Semiarid Region J. Pereira et al.
- Rainfall Prediction in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil Using Generalized Additive Models L. Dantas et al.
- Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks E. Pinheiro & T. Ouarda
- Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain) T. Van Hateren et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
Short summary
The feasibility of drought prediction is assessed in the Brazilian northeast. The models were provided by a regional agency and a European meteorological agency and downscaling was done using three empirical models. This work showed that the combination of different forecast and downscaling models can provide skillful predictions of drought events on timescales relevant to water managers. But the models also showed little to no skill for quantitative predictions of monthly precipitation.
The feasibility of drought prediction is assessed in the Brazilian northeast. The models were...
