Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jul 2018
Research article |
| 17 Jul 2018
Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event
Iris Manola
Meteorology and Air Quality, Department of Environmental Sciences,
Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Bart van den Hurk
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU),
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the
Netherlands
Hans De Moel
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU),
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU),
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Cited
34 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling the Scaling of Short‐Duration Precipitation Extremes With Temperature H. Van de Vyver et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000665
- Linking Total Precipitable Water to Precipitation Extremes Globally S. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002473
- A Temperature-Scaling Approach for Projecting Changes in Short Duration Rainfall Extremes from GCM Data R. Dahm et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020313
- Automating rainfall recording: Ensuring homogeneity when instruments change C. Wasko et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127758
- Estimating design hydrologic extremes in a warming climate: alternatives, uncertainties and the way forward A. Sharma et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0623
- Review: Can temperature be used to inform changes to flood extremes with global warming? C. Wasko https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0551
- Blue-green roofs with forecast-based operation to reduce the impact of weather extremes T. Busker et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113750
- Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method E. Van Uytven et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020
- The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature C. Wasko & R. Nathan https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02523-5
- Application of the non-stationary peak-over-threshold methods for deriving rainfall extremes from temperature projections O. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124318
- Incorporating non-stationarity from climate change into rainfall frequency and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves K. Schlef et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128757
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277
- Observed and Projected Scaling of Daily Extreme Precipitation with Dew Point Temperature at Annual and Seasonal Scales across the Northeast United Sates S. Steinschneider & N. Najibi https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0183.1
- Uncertainty of Rate of Change in Korean Future Rainfall Extremes Using Non-Stationary GEV Model J. Seo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020227
- Pyraingen: A python package for constrained continuous rainfall generation C. Dykman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.105984
- A Methodological Approach to Improving Extreme Precipitation Reanalysis Data Using the Clausius-Clapeyron Relationship: A Case Study in a Mediterranean City A. Papadopoulos-Zachos & C. Anagnostopoulou https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101195
- A framework for climate-adaptive geotechnical analysis and design A. Insana et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-025-04628-x
- Characterizing past and future trend and frequency of extreme rainfall in urban catchments: a case study P. Mzava et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/h2oj.2020.009
- Rain-on-wet-soil compound floods in lowlands: the combined effect of large rain events and shallow groundwater on discharge peaks in a changing climate C. Brauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-249-2026
- Increasing Trends in Discharge Maxima of a Mediterranean River during Early Autumn G. Varlas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15061022
- Past and projected climate change impacts on rainfall erosivity: Advancing our knowledge for the eastern Mediterranean island of Crete M. Grillakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104625
- Analysis of urban rainfall from hourly to seasonal scales using high‐resolution radar observations in the Netherlands I. Manola et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6241
- Hydrological simple water balance modeling for increasing geographically isolated doline wetland functions and its application to climate change O. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.105812
- Urban flood regulating ecosystem services under climate change: how can Nature-based Solutions contribute? T. Wübbelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2023.1081850
- Kolmogorov-like scaling and multifractal complexities in rainfall events J. GhoshDastider et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/adc242
- Assessing differences in the response of forest aboveground biomass and composition under climate change in subtropical forest transition zone Z. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135746
- A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China J. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020
- Challenges in the attribution of river flood events P. Scussolini et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.874
- Rapid intensification of recent extreme precipitation events in southern Norway under warmer climate conditions I. Mužić et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00200-z
- Updating intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban infrastructure design under a changing environment L. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1519
- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025
- A Hybrid Data and Knowledge Driven Risk Prediction Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems Considering Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Rainfalls Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIA.2024.3430247
- Fighting big data and ensemble fatigue in climate change impact studies: Can we turn the ensemble cascade upside down? E. Van Uytven et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6696
- Recombining past event precipitation and antecedent catchment states generates unprecedented floods L. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02691-6
34 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling the Scaling of Short‐Duration Precipitation Extremes With Temperature H. Van de Vyver et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000665
- Linking Total Precipitable Water to Precipitation Extremes Globally S. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002473
- A Temperature-Scaling Approach for Projecting Changes in Short Duration Rainfall Extremes from GCM Data R. Dahm et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020313
- Automating rainfall recording: Ensuring homogeneity when instruments change C. Wasko et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127758
- Estimating design hydrologic extremes in a warming climate: alternatives, uncertainties and the way forward A. Sharma et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0623
- Review: Can temperature be used to inform changes to flood extremes with global warming? C. Wasko https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0551
- Blue-green roofs with forecast-based operation to reduce the impact of weather extremes T. Busker et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113750
- Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method E. Van Uytven et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020
- The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature C. Wasko & R. Nathan https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02523-5
- Application of the non-stationary peak-over-threshold methods for deriving rainfall extremes from temperature projections O. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124318
- Incorporating non-stationarity from climate change into rainfall frequency and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves K. Schlef et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128757
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277
- Observed and Projected Scaling of Daily Extreme Precipitation with Dew Point Temperature at Annual and Seasonal Scales across the Northeast United Sates S. Steinschneider & N. Najibi https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0183.1
- Uncertainty of Rate of Change in Korean Future Rainfall Extremes Using Non-Stationary GEV Model J. Seo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020227
- Pyraingen: A python package for constrained continuous rainfall generation C. Dykman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.105984
- A Methodological Approach to Improving Extreme Precipitation Reanalysis Data Using the Clausius-Clapeyron Relationship: A Case Study in a Mediterranean City A. Papadopoulos-Zachos & C. Anagnostopoulou https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101195
- A framework for climate-adaptive geotechnical analysis and design A. Insana et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-025-04628-x
- Characterizing past and future trend and frequency of extreme rainfall in urban catchments: a case study P. Mzava et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/h2oj.2020.009
- Rain-on-wet-soil compound floods in lowlands: the combined effect of large rain events and shallow groundwater on discharge peaks in a changing climate C. Brauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-249-2026
- Increasing Trends in Discharge Maxima of a Mediterranean River during Early Autumn G. Varlas et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15061022
- Past and projected climate change impacts on rainfall erosivity: Advancing our knowledge for the eastern Mediterranean island of Crete M. Grillakis et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104625
- Analysis of urban rainfall from hourly to seasonal scales using high‐resolution radar observations in the Netherlands I. Manola et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6241
- Hydrological simple water balance modeling for increasing geographically isolated doline wetland functions and its application to climate change O. Lee et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.105812
- Urban flood regulating ecosystem services under climate change: how can Nature-based Solutions contribute? T. Wübbelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2023.1081850
- Kolmogorov-like scaling and multifractal complexities in rainfall events J. GhoshDastider et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/adc242
- Assessing differences in the response of forest aboveground biomass and composition under climate change in subtropical forest transition zone Z. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135746
- A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China J. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020
- Challenges in the attribution of river flood events P. Scussolini et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.874
- Rapid intensification of recent extreme precipitation events in southern Norway under warmer climate conditions I. Mužić et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00200-z
- Updating intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban infrastructure design under a changing environment L. Yan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1519
- It could have been much worse: spatial counterfactuals of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr Valley, Germany S. Vorogushyn et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2007-2025
- A Hybrid Data and Knowledge Driven Risk Prediction Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems Considering Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Rainfalls Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIA.2024.3430247
- Fighting big data and ensemble fatigue in climate change impact studies: Can we turn the ensemble cascade upside down? E. Van Uytven et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6696
- Recombining past event precipitation and antecedent catchment states generates unprecedented floods L. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02691-6
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 26 Jul 2026
Short summary
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. We investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a
future weatherscenario.
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a...
