Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jul 2018
Research article |
| 13 Jul 2018
| 13 Jul 2018
Modeling the glacial lake outburst flood process chain in the Nepal Himalaya: reassessing Imja Tsho's hazard
Center for Water and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin,
Austin, TX, USA
David R. Rounce
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK,
USA
Daene C. McKinney
Center for Water and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin,
Austin, TX, USA
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Cited
40 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Primary and potential secondary risks of landslide outburst floods Y. Gao et al. 10.1007/s11069-022-05776-z
- Glacier structure influence on Himalayan ice‐front morphology M. Peacey et al. 10.1002/esp.5576
- Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods G. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w
- UAV-Derived Himalayan Topography: Hazard Assessments and Comparison with Global DEM Products C. Watson et al. 10.3390/drones3010018
- Assessing national exposure to and impact of glacial lake outburst floods considering uncertainty under data sparsity H. Chen et al. 10.5194/hess-29-733-2025
- Identifying the Potential Dam Sites to Avert the Risk of Catastrophic Floods in the Jhelum Basin, Kashmir, NW Himalaya, India M. Rather et al. 10.3390/rs14071538
- Reconstructing the History of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, East Nepal: An Interdisciplinary Approach A. Byers et al. 10.3390/su12135407
- Glacier-Glacial Lake Interactions and Glacial Lake Development in the Central Himalaya, India (1994–2017) P. Pandey et al. 10.1007/s12583-020-1056-9
- Quantitative analysis of artificial dam failure effects on debris flows – A case study of the Zhouqu ‘8.8’ debris flow in northwestern China Y. Chong et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148439
- Temporal and Spatial Changes and GLOF Susceptibility Assessment of Glacial Lakes in Nepal from 2000 to 2020 J. Hu et al. 10.3390/rs14195034
- Future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107783
- Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Baksan River Basin, the Central Caucasus, Russia E. Kornilova et al. 10.3390/hydrology8010024
- Torrential Hazards’ Mitigation Measures in a Typical Alpine Catchment in Slovenia J. Sodnik et al. 10.3390/app132011136
- A Perspective of the Cumulative Risks from Climate Change on Mt. Everest: Findings from the 2019 Expedition K. Miner et al. 10.3390/ijerph18041928
- Mass wasting and erosion in different morphoclimatic zones of the Makalu Barun region, Nepal Himalaya J. Kalvoda & A. Emmer 10.1080/04353676.2021.2000816
- Risk assessment of a glacial lake with abruptly slowing expansion, Jiongpu, Southeastern Tibet T. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109471
- Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia W. Furian et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.821798
- Erosional dam breach modelling for multi-glacial lake outburst process and downstream flood exposure assessment in the Eastern Himalayas A. Chowdhury et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132417
- Historical beacon fire lines as early warning systems for glacier lake outbursts in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram Mountains L. Iturrizaga 10.1007/s11069-019-03705-1
- In full transition: Key impacts of vanishing mountain ice on water-security at local to global scales W. Haeberli & R. Weingartner 10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100074
- Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1029/2022JF006826
- Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes – a case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau H. Duan et al. 10.5194/tc-17-591-2023
- Analysis of glacial lake outburst flood terrain and sedimentary deposits in Valle Soler, Northern Patagonia Icefield J. Burton et al. 10.1080/02723646.2020.1839213
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- Expansion and hazard risk assessment of glacial lake Jialong Co in the central Himalayas by using an unmanned surface vessel and remote sensing D. Li et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147249
- Future growth and decline of high mountain Asia's ice-dammed lakes and associated risk L. Compagno et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00520-8
- Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods G. Veh et al. 10.1029/2021EF002426
- Mass Loss From Calving in Himalayan Proglacial Lakes C. Watson et al. 10.3389/feart.2019.00342
- Simulation and Assessment of Future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalayas T. Zhang et al. 10.3390/w13101376
- Reconstructing the Chongbaxia Tsho glacial lake outburst flood in the Eastern Himalaya: Evolution, process and impacts Y. Nie et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107393
- Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990 D. Shugar et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4
- A rockfall-induced glacial lake outburst flood, Upper Barun Valley, Nepal A. Byers et al. 10.1007/s10346-018-1079-9
- Six Decades of Glacier Mass Changes around Mt. Everest Are Revealed by Historical and Contemporary Images O. King et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.019
- Glacial change and hydrological implications in the Himalaya and Karakoram Y. Nie et al. 10.1038/s43017-020-00124-w
- Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun M. Gouli et al. 10.1080/19475705.2023.2266219
- Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal Himalayas N. Khadka et al. 10.1007/s10113-023-02142-y
- Review of moraine dam failure mechanism R. Neupane et al. 10.1080/19475705.2019.1652210
- Modeling the glacial lake outburst flood process chain in the Nepal Himalaya: reassessing Imja Tsho's hazard J. Lala et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018
- Hydrodynamic modelling of glacial lake outburst flood in lower Barun lake A. Mandal et al. 10.1007/s44290-025-00176-1
- Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes I. Kougkoulos et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Primary and potential secondary risks of landslide outburst floods Y. Gao et al. 10.1007/s11069-022-05776-z
- Glacier structure influence on Himalayan ice‐front morphology M. Peacey et al. 10.1002/esp.5576
- Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods G. Zhang et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w
- UAV-Derived Himalayan Topography: Hazard Assessments and Comparison with Global DEM Products C. Watson et al. 10.3390/drones3010018
- Assessing national exposure to and impact of glacial lake outburst floods considering uncertainty under data sparsity H. Chen et al. 10.5194/hess-29-733-2025
- Identifying the Potential Dam Sites to Avert the Risk of Catastrophic Floods in the Jhelum Basin, Kashmir, NW Himalaya, India M. Rather et al. 10.3390/rs14071538
- Reconstructing the History of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, East Nepal: An Interdisciplinary Approach A. Byers et al. 10.3390/su12135407
- Glacier-Glacial Lake Interactions and Glacial Lake Development in the Central Himalaya, India (1994–2017) P. Pandey et al. 10.1007/s12583-020-1056-9
- Quantitative analysis of artificial dam failure effects on debris flows – A case study of the Zhouqu ‘8.8’ debris flow in northwestern China Y. Chong et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148439
- Temporal and Spatial Changes and GLOF Susceptibility Assessment of Glacial Lakes in Nepal from 2000 to 2020 J. Hu et al. 10.3390/rs14195034
- Future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107783
- Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Baksan River Basin, the Central Caucasus, Russia E. Kornilova et al. 10.3390/hydrology8010024
- Torrential Hazards’ Mitigation Measures in a Typical Alpine Catchment in Slovenia J. Sodnik et al. 10.3390/app132011136
- A Perspective of the Cumulative Risks from Climate Change on Mt. Everest: Findings from the 2019 Expedition K. Miner et al. 10.3390/ijerph18041928
- Mass wasting and erosion in different morphoclimatic zones of the Makalu Barun region, Nepal Himalaya J. Kalvoda & A. Emmer 10.1080/04353676.2021.2000816
- Risk assessment of a glacial lake with abruptly slowing expansion, Jiongpu, Southeastern Tibet T. Peng et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2024.109471
- Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia W. Furian et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.821798
- Erosional dam breach modelling for multi-glacial lake outburst process and downstream flood exposure assessment in the Eastern Himalayas A. Chowdhury et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132417
- Historical beacon fire lines as early warning systems for glacier lake outbursts in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram Mountains L. Iturrizaga 10.1007/s11069-019-03705-1
- In full transition: Key impacts of vanishing mountain ice on water-security at local to global scales W. Haeberli & R. Weingartner 10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100074
- Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1029/2022JF006826
- Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes – a case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau H. Duan et al. 10.5194/tc-17-591-2023
- Analysis of glacial lake outburst flood terrain and sedimentary deposits in Valle Soler, Northern Patagonia Icefield J. Burton et al. 10.1080/02723646.2020.1839213
- Modeling lake outburst and downstream hazard assessment of the Lower Barun Glacial Lake, Nepal Himalaya A. Sattar et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126208
- Expansion and hazard risk assessment of glacial lake Jialong Co in the central Himalayas by using an unmanned surface vessel and remote sensing D. Li et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147249
- Future growth and decline of high mountain Asia's ice-dammed lakes and associated risk L. Compagno et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00520-8
- Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods G. Veh et al. 10.1029/2021EF002426
- Mass Loss From Calving in Himalayan Proglacial Lakes C. Watson et al. 10.3389/feart.2019.00342
- Simulation and Assessment of Future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalayas T. Zhang et al. 10.3390/w13101376
- Reconstructing the Chongbaxia Tsho glacial lake outburst flood in the Eastern Himalaya: Evolution, process and impacts Y. Nie et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107393
- Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990 D. Shugar et al. 10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4
- A rockfall-induced glacial lake outburst flood, Upper Barun Valley, Nepal A. Byers et al. 10.1007/s10346-018-1079-9
- Six Decades of Glacier Mass Changes around Mt. Everest Are Revealed by Historical and Contemporary Images O. King et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.019
- Glacial change and hydrological implications in the Himalaya and Karakoram Y. Nie et al. 10.1038/s43017-020-00124-w
- Hazard assessment of a pair of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya: unfolding combined outbursts of Upper and Lower Barun M. Gouli et al. 10.1080/19475705.2023.2266219
- Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and glacial lakes in Nepal Himalayas N. Khadka et al. 10.1007/s10113-023-02142-y
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Review of moraine dam failure mechanism R. Neupane et al. 10.1080/19475705.2019.1652210
- Modeling the glacial lake outburst flood process chain in the Nepal Himalaya: reassessing Imja Tsho's hazard J. Lala et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3721-2018
- Hydrodynamic modelling of glacial lake outburst flood in lower Barun lake A. Mandal et al. 10.1007/s44290-025-00176-1
- Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes I. Kougkoulos et al. 10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6
Latest update: 08 Mar 2025
Short summary
Many glacial lakes in the Himalayas are held in place by natural sediment dams, which are prone to collapse, causing a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). This study models a GLOF as a process chain, in which an avalanche enters the lake, creates a large wave that erodes the sediment dam, and produces a flood downstream. Results indicate that Imja Tsho presents little hazard for the next 30 years, but the model is replicable and should be used at other lakes that may present greater hazard.
Many glacial lakes in the Himalayas are held in place by natural sediment dams, which are prone...
