Human amplified changes in precipitation–runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States

Kelly, Sara A.; Takbiri, Zeinab; Belmont, Patrick; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5065-2017

Articles | Volume 21, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5065-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5065-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 10

Research article

|

09 Oct 2017

Research article |

| 09 Oct 2017

Human amplified changes in precipitation–runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States

Sara A. Kelly, Zeinab Takbiri, Patrick Belmont, and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Download

Final revised paper (published on 09 Oct 2017)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 15 Mar 2017)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of Kelly et al.', Ben Livneh, 02 Apr 2017
- AC1: 'Reply to RC1: 'Review of Kelly et al.', Ben Livneh, 02 Apr 2017', Sara Kelly, 28 Apr 2017
RC2: 'Comment on “Human amplified changes in precipitation-runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States” by Sara A. Kelly et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Apr 2017
RC3: 'HESS-2017-133 review', Anonymous Referee #3, 15 May 2017
RC4: 'Comments on "Human amplified changes in precipitation-runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States"', Anonymous Referee #4, 19 May 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by Editor and Referees) (23 May 2017) by Nunzio Romano

AR by Sara Kelly on behalf of the Authors (04 Jul 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Jul 2017) by Nunzio Romano

RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (22 Jul 2017)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (09 Aug 2017)

Suggestions for revision or reasons for rejection

The present study associates observed changes in streamflow patters in four large basins of the Midwestern Unites States to changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration and human interventions, particularly the increasing cultivation of soybean and corn enhanced by artificial drainage. It analyses 79 years (1935 - 2013) of precipitation, streamflow, artificial drainage, and cultivation data, to provide a extensive statistical time series analysis, identifying breakpoint years that evidence the hypothesized changes. Additionally, the changes in basin storage are associated to changes in climate or in land-cover using a simple water budget. The paper concludes that artificial drainage as part of large agricultural development in the Midwestern US amplifies the changes in rainfall-runoff response because of an increased hydrologic connectivity and a reduced storage in the basin.

This version is a minor revision of the original submission that I reviewed a few months ago; therefore, I do not see significant changes to address successfully all of the referee comments. Most of the improvements have been made on the form of the text and in a lesser extent to address the several criticisms on the document provided by the different reviewers. I would be more keen to see a thorough revision of the manuscript than a justification of why such changes have not been assimilated.

Particularly, with respect to those provided in my revision, I keep the main major comments as unsolved:
- It is not a stylistic request to divide results from discussion. It is indeed difficult to separate them because of the tendency to confuse result description from interpretation. This is a skill necessary to develop in order to be objective at drawing conclusions and remove speculations or interpretations that are not completely based on the current data and results.
- The study uses 7 metrics to analyze the streamflow regime that might be redundant as these are related to flow magnitude mainly. In the previous revision, I have recommended to include other hydrological indices that relate to the different flow attributes (magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and flashiness). The authors could perform a correlation analysis between the metrics, gauges, and catchments, or a Principal Component Analysis to either demonstrate that the indices they are using are indeed independent, or to identify more informative hydrological indices that characterize streamflow more comprehensively.

I judge the paper could be suitable for publication after these revisions.

Hide

ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by Editor and Referees) (11 Aug 2017) by Nunzio Romano

AR by Sara Kelly on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (17 Aug 2017) by Nunzio Romano

AR by Sara Kelly on behalf of the Authors (26 Aug 2017) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

Humans have profoundly altered land cover and soil drainage for agricultural purposes in the Midwestern USA. Here we investigate whether climate alone can explain recent increases in observed streamflows throughout the region. Using multiple analyses, including statistical tests and water budgets, we conclude that historical drainage installation has likely amplified the streamflow response to regional precipitation increases. We stress that better documentation of artificial drainage is needed.