Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4591-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4591-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
The paradoxical evolution of runoff in the pastoral Sahel: analysis of the hydrological changes over the Agoufou watershed (Mali) using the KINEROS-2 model
Laetitia Gal
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Manuela Grippa
Geosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Pierre Hiernaux
Geosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Léa Pons
Geosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
Laurent Kergoat
Geosciences Environnement Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
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Cited
39 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape R. Yonaba et al.
- Analysing rainfall and runoff patterns over the Niger River in Mali, West Africa A. Toure et al.
- Geomorphometric soil erosion modelling in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review of model applicability, validation gaps, and policy integration K. Boroko et al.
- Effects of vegetation composition changes on surface runoff and land degradation in Sahelian Watersheds E. Nkiaka et al.
- A dynamic land use/land cover input helps in picturing the Sahelian paradox: Assessing variability and attribution of changes in surface runoff in a Sahelian watershed R. Yonaba et al.
- Réflexion sur la nature des eaux-ressources à partir de la notion de zone critique. Illustrations en Afrique de l’Ouest F. Gangneron
- Rainfall-discharge relationship and water balance over the past 60 years within the Chari-Logone sub-basins, Lake Chad basin A. Mahamat Nour et al.
- Distinct and combined impacts of climate and land use scenarios on water availability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco F. Choukri et al.
- What if the rains do not come? C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Spatio-temporal dynamics of suspended particulate matter in the middle Niger River using in-situ and satellite radiometric measurements M. Boubacar Moussa et al.
- Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams: Perspectives for critical zone science and research on socio‐ecosystems O. Fovet et al.
- Identifying drivers of streamflow extremes in West Africa to inform a nonstationary prediction model K. Chun et al.
- Tipping points in climate-driven variables of ecosystem resilience across Africa's Niger River Basin C. Ogbue et al.
- Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013–2017 M. Cissoko et al.
- From meteorological to hydrological drought: a case study using standardized indices in the Nakanbe River Basin, Burkina Faso T. Fowé et al.
- Trend and variability in a new, reconstructed streamflow dataset for West and Central Africa, and climatic interactions, 1950–2005 M. Sidibe et al.
- Sécheresse climatique et dynamique éolienne sur la côte nord du Sénégal. Sensibilité dunaire et estimation des débits massiques dans le Gandiolais S. NIANG
- Quantifying Sahel Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Variability, Soil Moisture and Vegetation Changes Using Analytical Methods E. Nkiaka et al.
- Conceptual Model Modification and the Millennium Drought of Southeastern Australia J. Hughes et al.
- Drought-induced regime shift and resilience of a Sahelian ecohydrosystem V. Wendling et al.
- Unraveling the hydrology and sediment balance of an ungauged lake in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa using remote sensing S. Ragettli et al.
- Analysis of Suspended Particulate Matter and Its Drivers in Sahelian Ponds and Lakes by Remote Sensing (Landsat and MODIS): Gourma Region, Mali E. Robert et al.
- Detecting grassland cover changes through spatiotemporal outlier analysis using remotely sensed time-series data: a case study from Xilingol, China Z. Sha & Y. Wang
- Impacts of climate and environmental changes on water resources: A multi-scale study based on Nakanbé nested watersheds in West African Sahel Y. Gbohoui et al.
- The water resources of tropical West Africa: problems, progress, and prospects C. Ndehedehe
- Evolution of Surface Hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian Strip: An Updated Review L. Descroix et al.
- Coupling Remote Sensing and GIS with KINEROS2 Model for Spatially Distributed Runoff Modeling in a Himalayan Watershed S. Saran et al.
- Identifying the footprints of global climate modes in time-variable gravity hydrological signals C. Ndehedehe & V. Ferreira
- Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model S. Tafasca et al.
- An Interdisciplinary Approach to Understand the Resilience of Agrosystems in the Sahel and West Africa L. Descroix et al.
- Experimental and modelling evidence of short-term effect of raindrop impact on hydraulic conductivity and overland flow intensity C. Mügler et al.
- Adapting pastoral breeding to global changes in West and Central tropical Africa: Review of ecological views P. Hiernaux & M. Assouma
- Is terrestrial water storage a useful indicator in assessing the impacts of climate variability on crop yield in semi-arid ecosystems? C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Potential of SWOT for Monitoring Water Volumes in Sahelian Ponds and Lakes M. Grippa et al.
- Evaluation of the Drivers Responsible for Flooding in Africa Y. Tramblay et al.
- Understanding global groundwater-climate interactions C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Unravelling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Runoff in the Mouhoun River Catchment (West Africa) C. Zouré et al.
- Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and Niger Rivers C. Wilcox et al.
- Hydrological regime shifts in Sahelian watersheds: an investigation with a simple dynamical model driven by annual precipitation E. Le Roux et al.
39 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape R. Yonaba et al.
- Analysing rainfall and runoff patterns over the Niger River in Mali, West Africa A. Toure et al.
- Geomorphometric soil erosion modelling in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review of model applicability, validation gaps, and policy integration K. Boroko et al.
- Effects of vegetation composition changes on surface runoff and land degradation in Sahelian Watersheds E. Nkiaka et al.
- A dynamic land use/land cover input helps in picturing the Sahelian paradox: Assessing variability and attribution of changes in surface runoff in a Sahelian watershed R. Yonaba et al.
- Réflexion sur la nature des eaux-ressources à partir de la notion de zone critique. Illustrations en Afrique de l’Ouest F. Gangneron
- Rainfall-discharge relationship and water balance over the past 60 years within the Chari-Logone sub-basins, Lake Chad basin A. Mahamat Nour et al.
- Distinct and combined impacts of climate and land use scenarios on water availability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco F. Choukri et al.
- What if the rains do not come? C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Spatio-temporal dynamics of suspended particulate matter in the middle Niger River using in-situ and satellite radiometric measurements M. Boubacar Moussa et al.
- Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams: Perspectives for critical zone science and research on socio‐ecosystems O. Fovet et al.
- Identifying drivers of streamflow extremes in West Africa to inform a nonstationary prediction model K. Chun et al.
- Tipping points in climate-driven variables of ecosystem resilience across Africa's Niger River Basin C. Ogbue et al.
- Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013–2017 M. Cissoko et al.
- From meteorological to hydrological drought: a case study using standardized indices in the Nakanbe River Basin, Burkina Faso T. Fowé et al.
- Trend and variability in a new, reconstructed streamflow dataset for West and Central Africa, and climatic interactions, 1950–2005 M. Sidibe et al.
- Sécheresse climatique et dynamique éolienne sur la côte nord du Sénégal. Sensibilité dunaire et estimation des débits massiques dans le Gandiolais S. NIANG
- Quantifying Sahel Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Variability, Soil Moisture and Vegetation Changes Using Analytical Methods E. Nkiaka et al.
- Conceptual Model Modification and the Millennium Drought of Southeastern Australia J. Hughes et al.
- Drought-induced regime shift and resilience of a Sahelian ecohydrosystem V. Wendling et al.
- Unraveling the hydrology and sediment balance of an ungauged lake in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa using remote sensing S. Ragettli et al.
- Analysis of Suspended Particulate Matter and Its Drivers in Sahelian Ponds and Lakes by Remote Sensing (Landsat and MODIS): Gourma Region, Mali E. Robert et al.
- Detecting grassland cover changes through spatiotemporal outlier analysis using remotely sensed time-series data: a case study from Xilingol, China Z. Sha & Y. Wang
- Impacts of climate and environmental changes on water resources: A multi-scale study based on Nakanbé nested watersheds in West African Sahel Y. Gbohoui et al.
- The water resources of tropical West Africa: problems, progress, and prospects C. Ndehedehe
- Evolution of Surface Hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian Strip: An Updated Review L. Descroix et al.
- Coupling Remote Sensing and GIS with KINEROS2 Model for Spatially Distributed Runoff Modeling in a Himalayan Watershed S. Saran et al.
- Identifying the footprints of global climate modes in time-variable gravity hydrological signals C. Ndehedehe & V. Ferreira
- Weak sensitivity of the terrestrial water budget to global soil texture maps in the ORCHIDEE land surface model S. Tafasca et al.
- An Interdisciplinary Approach to Understand the Resilience of Agrosystems in the Sahel and West Africa L. Descroix et al.
- Experimental and modelling evidence of short-term effect of raindrop impact on hydraulic conductivity and overland flow intensity C. Mügler et al.
- Adapting pastoral breeding to global changes in West and Central tropical Africa: Review of ecological views P. Hiernaux & M. Assouma
- Is terrestrial water storage a useful indicator in assessing the impacts of climate variability on crop yield in semi-arid ecosystems? C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Potential of SWOT for Monitoring Water Volumes in Sahelian Ponds and Lakes M. Grippa et al.
- Evaluation of the Drivers Responsible for Flooding in Africa Y. Tramblay et al.
- Understanding global groundwater-climate interactions C. Ndehedehe et al.
- Unravelling the Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Runoff in the Mouhoun River Catchment (West Africa) C. Zouré et al.
- Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and Niger Rivers C. Wilcox et al.
- Hydrological regime shifts in Sahelian watersheds: an investigation with a simple dynamical model driven by annual precipitation E. Le Roux et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 May 2026
Short summary
The intense, prolonged Sahel drought has caused a widespread increase in surface runoff and surface waters like lakes or rivers, against all expectations. Using long-term observations and the Kineros2 hydrological model, we show that the runoff coefficient of the Agoufou watershed increased from ~ 0 to 5.5 % in 1950–2011. We attribute this phenomenon to a change in vegetation and soil surface properties, in response to the drought, rather than land–use change or rainfall regime intensification.
The intense, prolonged Sahel drought has caused a widespread increase in surface runoff and...