Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jan 2017
Research article |
| 25 Jan 2017
Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jakob Zscheischler
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Martin Heimann
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Holger Lange
Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
Miguel D. Mahecha
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, Germany
Michael Stifel Center Jena for Data-Driven and Simulation Science, Jena, Germany
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Weather and Climate Modeling, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Friederike E. L. Otto
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK
Markus Reichstein
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, Germany
Michael Stifel Center Jena for Data-Driven and Simulation Science, Jena, Germany
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Latest update: 14 Jul 2025
Short summary
The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals...
