Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 409–422, 2017

Special issue: Observations and modeling of land surface water and energy...

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 409–422, 2017

Research article 24 Jan 2017

Research article | 24 Jan 2017

Land surface albedo and vegetation feedbacks enhanced the millennium drought in south-east Australia

Jason P. Evans1, Xianhong Meng2, and Matthew F. McCabe3 Jason P. Evans et al.
  • 1Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
  • 2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou, China
  • 3Water Desalination and Reuse Center, Division of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Abstract. In this study, we have examined the ability of a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the extended drought that occurred throughout the period of 2002 through 2007 in south-east Australia. In particular, the ability to reproduce the two drought peaks in 2002 and 2006 was investigated. Overall, the RCM was found to reproduce both the temporal and the spatial structure of the drought-related precipitation anomalies quite well, despite using climatological seasonal surface characteristics such as vegetation fraction and albedo. This result concurs with previous studies that found that about two-thirds of the precipitation decline can be attributed to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Simulation experiments that allowed the vegetation fraction and albedo to vary as observed illustrated that the intensity of the drought was underestimated by about 10 % when using climatological surface characteristics. These results suggest that in terms of drought development, capturing the feedbacks related to vegetation and albedo changes may be as important as capturing the soil moisture–precipitation feedback. In order to improve our modelling of multi-year droughts, the challenge is to capture all these related surface changes simultaneously, and provide a comprehensive description of land surface–precipitation feedback during the droughts development.

Short summary
This work demonstrates that changes in surface albedo and vegetation, caused by the millennium drought in south-east Australia, affected the atmosphere in a way that decreased precipitation further. This land–surface feedback increased the severity of the drought by 10 %. This suggests that climate models need to simulate changes in surface characteristics (other than soil moisture) in response to a developing drought if they are to capture this kind of multi-year drought.