Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices
Louise Crochemore
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
IRSTEA, Catchment Hydrology Research Group, UR HBAN, Antony, France
now at: Hydrology Research Unit, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI),
Norrköping, Sweden
Maria-Helena Ramos
IRSTEA, Catchment Hydrology Research Group, UR HBAN, Antony, France
Florian Pappenberger
ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield
Park, Reading, UK
Charles Perrin
IRSTEA, Catchment Hydrology Research Group, UR HBAN, Antony, France
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Cited
39 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/2016RG000549
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Enhancing the Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow With a Statistical‐Dynamical Approach L. Slater & G. Villarini 10.1029/2018GL077945
- Hydrological drought class early warning using support vector machines and rough sets R. Kolachian & B. Saghafian 10.1007/s12665-021-09536-3
- PREMHYCE: An operational tool for low-flow forecasting P. Nicolle et al. 10.5194/piahs-383-381-2020
- Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach S. Monhart et al. 10.5194/hess-23-493-2019
- A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments A. Schepen et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018
- Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management H. Apel et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes K. Sene et al. 10.5194/hess-22-127-2018
- Droughts Prediction: a Methodology Based on Climate Seasonal Forecasts E. Arnone et al. 10.1007/s11269-020-02623-3
- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. 10.1029/2022WR033655
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Monthly streamflow forecasting by machine learning methods using dynamic weather prediction model outputs over Iran M. Akbarian et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129480
- A dynamic classification-based long short-term memory network model for daily streamflow forecasting in different climate regions H. Chu et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110092
- Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America V. Siqueira et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125430
- Predictability of daily streamflow for the great rivers of South America based on a simple metric I. Petry et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2139620
- Skill Assessment of Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts over Iran M. Nobakht et al. 10.1007/s00376-020-0025-7
- Hydropower System Operation and the Quality of Short-Term Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts M. Osina Torres et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5608
- Application of Postprocessing to Watershed-Scale Subseasonal Climate Forecasts over the Contiguous United States S. Baker et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0155.1
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Monthly precipitation modeling using Bayesian Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain Y. Long et al. 10.2166/nh.2018.077
- From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment M. Giuliani et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
- Exploring hydrologic post-processing of ensemble streamflow forecasts based on affine kernel dressing and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II J. Xu et al. 10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022
- Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area A. Francipane et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2189521
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods S. Charles et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018
- Southern Hemisphere baroclinic activity in seasonal forecasts L. Trentini et al. 10.1007/s42865-024-00074-x
- Seasonal Streamflow Forecast in the Tocantins River Basin, Brazil: An Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 with Multiple Conceptual Hydrological Models L. Ávila et al. 10.3390/w15091695
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100905
- Probabilistic predictions for meteorological droughts based on multi-initial conditions M. Torres-Vázquez et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131662
- Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK S. Harrigan et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018
- Improving the Reliability of Sub‐Seasonal Forecasts of High and Low Flows by Using a Flow‐Dependent Nonparametric Model D. McInerney et al. 10.1029/2020WR029317
- PREMHYCE : un outil opérationnel pour la prévision des étiages F. Tilmant et al. 10.1051/lhb/2020043
- Suivi en temps réel des sécheresses : de l'analyse à la prévision saisonnière F. Besson et al. 10.1051/lhb/2020042
- Calibration of ECMWF SEAS5 based streamflow forecast in Seasonal hydrological forecasting for Citarum river basin, West Java, Indonesia D. Ratri et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101305
- Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts in Europe: Effect of Bias Correction and Downscaling Using Surface Observations S. Monhart et al. 10.1029/2017JD027923
- The drought-alert decision support system for water resources management E. Arnone et al. 10.5004/dwt.2020.26033
- Using Hybrid Wavelet‐Exponential Smoothing Approach for Streamflow Modeling V. Nourani et al. 10.1155/2021/6611848
- The Value of Distributed High-Resolution UAV-Borne Observations of Water Surface Elevation for River Management and Hydrodynamic Modeling L. Jiang et al. 10.3390/rs12071171
39 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/2016RG000549
- Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Enhancing the Predictability of Seasonal Streamflow With a Statistical‐Dynamical Approach L. Slater & G. Villarini 10.1029/2018GL077945
- Hydrological drought class early warning using support vector machines and rough sets R. Kolachian & B. Saghafian 10.1007/s12665-021-09536-3
- PREMHYCE: An operational tool for low-flow forecasting P. Nicolle et al. 10.5194/piahs-383-381-2020
- Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach S. Monhart et al. 10.5194/hess-23-493-2019
- A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments A. Schepen et al. 10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018
- Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management H. Apel et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
- Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
- Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes K. Sene et al. 10.5194/hess-22-127-2018
- Droughts Prediction: a Methodology Based on Climate Seasonal Forecasts E. Arnone et al. 10.1007/s11269-020-02623-3
- Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting J. Musuuza et al. 10.1029/2022WR033655
- Predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts: Verification metrics, diagnostic plots and forecast attributes Z. Huang & T. Zhao 10.1002/wat2.1580
- Monthly streamflow forecasting by machine learning methods using dynamic weather prediction model outputs over Iran M. Akbarian et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129480
- A dynamic classification-based long short-term memory network model for daily streamflow forecasting in different climate regions H. Chu et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110092
- Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America V. Siqueira et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125430
- Predictability of daily streamflow for the great rivers of South America based on a simple metric I. Petry et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2139620
- Skill Assessment of Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts over Iran M. Nobakht et al. 10.1007/s00376-020-0025-7
- Hydropower System Operation and the Quality of Short-Term Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts M. Osina Torres et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5608
- Application of Postprocessing to Watershed-Scale Subseasonal Climate Forecasts over the Contiguous United States S. Baker et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0155.1
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Monthly precipitation modeling using Bayesian Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain Y. Long et al. 10.2166/nh.2018.077
- From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment M. Giuliani et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020
- Exploring hydrologic post-processing of ensemble streamflow forecasts based on affine kernel dressing and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II J. Xu et al. 10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022
- Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area A. Francipane et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2189521
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods S. Charles et al. 10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018
- Southern Hemisphere baroclinic activity in seasonal forecasts L. Trentini et al. 10.1007/s42865-024-00074-x
- Seasonal Streamflow Forecast in the Tocantins River Basin, Brazil: An Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 with Multiple Conceptual Hydrological Models L. Ávila et al. 10.3390/w15091695
- Seasonal discharge forecasting for the Upper Danube I. Martin Santos et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100905
- Probabilistic predictions for meteorological droughts based on multi-initial conditions M. Torres-Vázquez et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131662
- Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK S. Harrigan et al. 10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018
- Improving the Reliability of Sub‐Seasonal Forecasts of High and Low Flows by Using a Flow‐Dependent Nonparametric Model D. McInerney et al. 10.1029/2020WR029317
- PREMHYCE : un outil opérationnel pour la prévision des étiages F. Tilmant et al. 10.1051/lhb/2020043
- Suivi en temps réel des sécheresses : de l'analyse à la prévision saisonnière F. Besson et al. 10.1051/lhb/2020042
- Calibration of ECMWF SEAS5 based streamflow forecast in Seasonal hydrological forecasting for Citarum river basin, West Java, Indonesia D. Ratri et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101305
- Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts in Europe: Effect of Bias Correction and Downscaling Using Surface Observations S. Monhart et al. 10.1029/2017JD027923
- The drought-alert decision support system for water resources management E. Arnone et al. 10.5004/dwt.2020.26033
- Using Hybrid Wavelet‐Exponential Smoothing Approach for Streamflow Modeling V. Nourani et al. 10.1155/2021/6611848
- The Value of Distributed High-Resolution UAV-Borne Observations of Water Surface Elevation for River Management and Hydrodynamic Modeling L. Jiang et al. 10.3390/rs12071171
Latest update: 02 Nov 2024
Short summary
The use of general circulation model outputs for streamflow forecasting has developed in the last decade. In parallel, traditional streamflow forecasting is commonly based on historical data. This study investigates the impact of conditioning historical data based on circulation model precipitation forecasts on seasonal streamflow forecast quality. Results highlighted a trade-off between the sharpness and reliability of forecasts.
The use of general circulation model outputs for streamflow forecasting has developed in the...
Special issue