Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices

Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; Perrin, Charles

doi:10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017

Articles | Volume 21, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 3

Research article

|

14 Mar 2017

Research article |

| 14 Mar 2017

Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices

Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, and Charles Perrin

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Jun 2016	90	28	1	119
Jul 2016	39	23	0	62
Aug 2016	19	12	1	32
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Oct 2016	14	9	7	30
Nov 2016	8	4	9	21
Dec 2016	7	2	0	9
Jan 2017	15	3	0	18
Feb 2017	16	5	0	21
Mar 2017	476	108	10	594
Apr 2017	225	44	8	277
May 2017	57	37	5	99
Jun 2017	69	41	2	112
Jul 2017	38	27	0	65
Aug 2017	19	19	0	38
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Feb 2018	23	12	1	36
Mar 2018	16	18	0	34
Apr 2018	12	11	0	23
May 2018	15	16	0	31
Jun 2018	13	10	0	23
Jul 2018	5	11	8	24
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Apr 2019	15	2	0	17
May 2019	22	13	0	35
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Jul 2019	32	12	0	44
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Nov 2019	16	5	0	21
Dec 2019	14	9	1	24
Jan 2020	29	15	3	47
Feb 2020	13	17	1	31
Mar 2020	14	19	0	33
Apr 2020	14	13	0	27
May 2020	15	15	0	30
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Aug 2020	16	21	3	40
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Oct 2020	18	16	3	37
Nov 2020	23	25	1	49
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Jan 2021	34	24	0	58
Feb 2021	23	17	0	40
Mar 2021	24	7	0	31
Apr 2021	25	17	0	42
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Dec 2022	18	6	1	25
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Feb 2023	22	10	2	34
Mar 2023	22	11	3	36
Apr 2023	35	11	3	49
May 2023	20	11	0	31
Jun 2023	10	7	1	18
Jul 2023	16	13	5	34
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Jun 2024	24	9	3	36
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Dec 2024	14	11	1	26
Jan 2025	18	9	3	30
Feb 2025	36	6	1	43
Mar 2025	16	18	2	36
Apr 2025	18	18	1	37
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Jun 2025	47	17	0	64
Jul 2025	23	18	3	44
Aug 2025	32	28	1	61
Sep 2025	54	26	2	82
Oct 2025	36	32	2	70
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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jun 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2016	90	28	1	119
Jul 2016	39	23	0	62
Aug 2016	19	12	1	32
Sep 2016	14	5	0	19
Oct 2016	14	9	7	30
Nov 2016	8	4	9	21
Dec 2016	7	2	0	9
Jan 2017	15	3	0	18
Feb 2017	16	5	0	21
Mar 2017	476	108	10	594
Apr 2017	225	44	8	277
May 2017	57	37	5	99
Jun 2017	69	41	2	112
Jul 2017	38	27	0	65
Aug 2017	19	19	0	38
Sep 2017	27	25	0	52
Oct 2017	27	21	1	49
Nov 2017	28	20	1	49
Dec 2017	24	21	0	45
Jan 2018	19	29	0	48
Feb 2018	23	12	1	36
Mar 2018	16	18	0	34
Apr 2018	12	11	0	23
May 2018	15	16	0	31
Jun 2018	13	10	0	23
Jul 2018	5	11	8	24
Aug 2018	22	12	1	35
Sep 2018	15	18	4	37
Oct 2018	19	20	0	39
Nov 2018	24	16	0	40
Dec 2018	18	9	1	28
Jan 2019	25	9	0	34
Feb 2019	18	9	1	28
Mar 2019	19	7	0	26
Apr 2019	15	2	0	17
May 2019	22	13	0	35
Jun 2019	27	14	0	41
Jul 2019	32	12	0	44
Aug 2019	19	9	0	28
Sep 2019	20	6	0	26
Oct 2019	13	10	1	24
Nov 2019	16	5	0	21
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Jan 2020	29	15	3	47
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Apr 2020	14	13	0	27
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Jun 2020	18	19	0	37
Jul 2020	24	17	5	46
Aug 2020	16	21	3	40
Sep 2020	21	11	0	32
Oct 2020	18	16	3	37
Nov 2020	23	25	1	49
Dec 2020	22	21	0	43
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Feb 2021	23	17	0	40
Mar 2021	24	7	0	31
Apr 2021	25	17	0	42
May 2021	17	14	0	31
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Jul 2021	15	10	0	25
Aug 2021	11	11	0	22
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Feb 2022	12	10	2	24
Mar 2022	9	8	0	17
Apr 2022	12	9	1	22
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Jun 2022	8	9	3	20
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Dec 2022	18	6	1	25
Jan 2023	19	18	3	40
Feb 2023	22	10	2	34
Mar 2023	22	11	3	36
Apr 2023	35	11	3	49
May 2023	20	11	0	31
Jun 2023	10	7	1	18
Jul 2023	16	13	5	34
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Oct 2023	18	12	1	31
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Dec 2023	7	4	3	14
Jan 2024	17	18	0	35
Feb 2024	7	8	0	15
Mar 2024	13	16	5	34
Apr 2024	14	11	2	27
May 2024	17	12	6	35
Jun 2024	24	9	3	36
Jul 2024	16	8	3	27
Aug 2024	32	7	2	41
Sep 2024	7	5	0	12
Oct 2024	16	5	0	21
Nov 2024	11	9	1	21
Dec 2024	14	11	1	26
Jan 2025	18	9	3	30
Feb 2025	36	6	1	43
Mar 2025	16	18	2	36
Apr 2025	18	18	1	37
May 2025	29	10	1	40
Jun 2025	47	17	0	64
Jul 2025	23	18	3	44
Aug 2025	32	28	1	61
Sep 2025	54	26	2	82
Oct 2025	36	32	2	70
Nov 2025	30	29	5	64

Latest update: 27 Nov 2025

Short summary

The use of general circulation model outputs for streamflow forecasting has developed in the last decade. In parallel, traditional streamflow forecasting is commonly based on historical data. This study investigates the impact of conditioning historical data based on circulation model precipitation forecasts on seasonal streamflow forecast quality. Results highlighted a trade-off between the sharpness and reliability of forecasts.