Linking biogeochemistry to hydro-geometrical variability in tidal estuaries: a generic modeling approach

Abstract. This study applies the Carbon-Generic Estuary Model (C-GEM) modeling platform to simulate the estuarine biogeochemical dynamics – in particular the air–water CO₂ exchange – in three idealized tidal estuaries characterized by increasing riverine influence, from a so-called "marine estuary" to a "riverine estuary". An intermediate case called "mixed estuary" is also considered. C-GEM uses a generic biogeochemical reaction network and a unique set of model parameters extracted from a comprehensive literature survey to perform steady-state simulations representing average conditions for temperate estuaries worldwide. Climate and boundary conditions are extracted from published global databases (e.g., World Ocean Atlas, GLORICH) and catchment model outputs (GlobalNEWS2). The whole-system biogeochemical indicators net ecosystem metabolism (NEM), C and N filtering capacities (FC_TC and FC_TN, respectively) and CO₂ gas exchanges (FCO₂) are calculated across the three idealized systems and are related to their main hydrodynamic and transport characteristics. A sensitivity analysis, which propagates the parameter uncertainties, is also carried out, followed by projections of changes in the biogeochemical indicators for the year 2050.

Results show that the average C filtering capacities for baseline conditions are 40, 30 and 22 % for the marine, mixed and riverine estuary, respectively, while N filtering capacities, calculated in a similar fashion, range from 22 % for the marine estuary to 18 and 15 % for the mixed and the riverine estuaries. Sensitivity analysis performed by varying the rate constants for aerobic degradation, denitrification and nitrification over the range of values reported in the literature significantly widens these ranges for both C and N. Simulations for the year 2050 suggest that all estuaries will remain largely heterotrophic, although a slight improvement of the estuarine trophic status is predicted. In addition, our results suggest that, while the riverine and mixed systems will only marginally be affected by an increase in atmospheric pCO₂, the marine estuary is likely to become a significant CO₂ sink in its downstream section. In the decades to come, such a change in behavior might strengthen the overall CO₂ sink of the estuary–coastal ocean continuum.