Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît; Magand, Claire; Sauquet, Eric; Ducharne, Agnès

doi:10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016

Articles | Volume 20, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

HYPER Droughts (HYdrological Precipitation – Evaporation...

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 9

Research article

|

08 Sep 2016

Research article |

| 08 Sep 2016

Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections

Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Dec 2015	66	126	1	193
Jan 2016	38	26	1	65
Feb 2016	17	9	3	29
Mar 2016	25	14	0	39
Apr 2016	6	7	0	13
May 2016	14	12	0	26
Jun 2016	13	7	0	20
Jul 2016	12	3	2	17
Aug 2016	4	5	1	10
Sep 2016	118	34	3	155
Oct 2016	35	10	1	46
Nov 2016	17	2	0	19
Dec 2016	8	4	0	12
Jan 2017	25	15	1	41
Feb 2017	7	7	0	14
Mar 2017	28	7	4	39
Apr 2017	29	8	2	39
May 2017	38	13	4	55
Jun 2017	31	11	1	43
Jul 2017	29	10	2	41
Aug 2017	8	7	0	15
Sep 2017	16	14	0	30
Oct 2017	6	4	0	10
Nov 2017	6	7	1	14
Dec 2017	16	15	1	32
Jan 2018	5	5	0	10
Feb 2018	13	10	2	25
Mar 2018	27	6	0	33
Apr 2018	7	9	1	17
May 2018	11	8	1	20
Jun 2018	11	9	0	20
Jul 2018	6	5	0	11
Aug 2018	14	8	1	23
Sep 2018	17	12	1	30
Oct 2018	18	10	0	28
Nov 2018	21	14	2	37
Dec 2018	8	9	1	18
Jan 2019	8	5	0	13
Feb 2019	14	9	0	23
Mar 2019	11	7	1	19
Apr 2019	4	4	1	9
May 2019	8	8	1	17
Jun 2019	13	11	0	24
Jul 2019	10	12	0	22
Aug 2019	4	5	2	11
Sep 2019	3	9	0	12
Oct 2019	13	10	1	24
Nov 2019	14	9	0	23
Dec 2019	16	9	2	27
Jan 2020	26	8	4	38
Feb 2020	17	4	0	21
Mar 2020	16	11	0	27
Apr 2020	16	11	0	27
May 2020	6	8	2	16
Jun 2020	25	16	0	41
Jul 2020	24	17	4	45
Aug 2020	17	21	5	43
Sep 2020	22	20	0	42
Oct 2020	18	14	1	33
Nov 2020	12	14	4	30
Dec 2020	17	10	0	27
Jan 2021	33	17	1	51
Feb 2021	19	10	2	31
Mar 2021	17	10	0	27
Apr 2021	21	17	2	40
May 2021	18	15	1	34
Jun 2021	17	20	1	38
Jul 2021	10	24	0	34
Aug 2021	18	7	3	28
Sep 2021	16	27	0	43
Oct 2021	16	32	0	48
Nov 2021	16	27	0	43
Dec 2021	18	13	1	32
Jan 2022	32	24	1	57
Feb 2022	16	8	1	25
Mar 2022	19	12	0	31
Apr 2022	20	13	4	37
May 2022	14	6	0	20
Jun 2022	19	4	4	27
Jul 2022	16	5	1	22
Aug 2022	32	14	0	46
Sep 2022	18	13	0	31
Oct 2022	18	10	1	29
Nov 2022	16	12	0	28
Dec 2022	22	5	0	27
Jan 2023	29	18	1	48
Feb 2023	22	8	1	31
Mar 2023	19	14	2	35
Apr 2023	22	9	2	33
May 2023	32	13	0	45
Jun 2023	36	17	0	53
Jul 2023	24	6	3	33
Aug 2023	25	10	3	38
Sep 2023	11	10	0	21
Oct 2023	101	11	2	114
Nov 2023	144	10	1	155
Dec 2023	26	9	1	36
Jan 2024	14	12	1	27
Feb 2024	16	13	2	31
Mar 2024	17	21	3	41
Apr 2024	25	15	4	44
May 2024	17	13	6	36
Jun 2024	32	7	2	41
Jul 2024	28	8	3	39
Aug 2024	33	7	2	42
Sep 2024	17	13	0	30
Oct 2024	22	2	0	24
Nov 2024	14	4	5	23
Dec 2024	12	2	2	16
Jan 2025	30	10	3	43
Feb 2025	38	8	4	50
Mar 2025	30	10	3	43
Apr 2025	33	14	2	49
May 2025	32	4	0	36
Jun 2025	51	19	0	70
Jul 2025	40	22	3	65
Aug 2025	40	15	4	59
Sep 2025	54	13	2	69
Oct 2025	24	19	3	46
Nov 2025	37	17	5	59

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Dec 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Dec 2015	66	126	1	193
Jan 2016	38	26	1	65
Feb 2016	17	9	3	29
Mar 2016	25	14	0	39
Apr 2016	6	7	0	13
May 2016	14	12	0	26
Jun 2016	13	7	0	20
Jul 2016	12	3	2	17
Aug 2016	4	5	1	10
Sep 2016	118	34	3	155
Oct 2016	35	10	1	46
Nov 2016	17	2	0	19
Dec 2016	8	4	0	12
Jan 2017	25	15	1	41
Feb 2017	7	7	0	14
Mar 2017	28	7	4	39
Apr 2017	29	8	2	39
May 2017	38	13	4	55
Jun 2017	31	11	1	43
Jul 2017	29	10	2	41
Aug 2017	8	7	0	15
Sep 2017	16	14	0	30
Oct 2017	6	4	0	10
Nov 2017	6	7	1	14
Dec 2017	16	15	1	32
Jan 2018	5	5	0	10
Feb 2018	13	10	2	25
Mar 2018	27	6	0	33
Apr 2018	7	9	1	17
May 2018	11	8	1	20
Jun 2018	11	9	0	20
Jul 2018	6	5	0	11
Aug 2018	14	8	1	23
Sep 2018	17	12	1	30
Oct 2018	18	10	0	28
Nov 2018	21	14	2	37
Dec 2018	8	9	1	18
Jan 2019	8	5	0	13
Feb 2019	14	9	0	23
Mar 2019	11	7	1	19
Apr 2019	4	4	1	9
May 2019	8	8	1	17
Jun 2019	13	11	0	24
Jul 2019	10	12	0	22
Aug 2019	4	5	2	11
Sep 2019	3	9	0	12
Oct 2019	13	10	1	24
Nov 2019	14	9	0	23
Dec 2019	16	9	2	27
Jan 2020	26	8	4	38
Feb 2020	17	4	0	21
Mar 2020	16	11	0	27
Apr 2020	16	11	0	27
May 2020	6	8	2	16
Jun 2020	25	16	0	41
Jul 2020	24	17	4	45
Aug 2020	17	21	5	43
Sep 2020	22	20	0	42
Oct 2020	18	14	1	33
Nov 2020	12	14	4	30
Dec 2020	17	10	0	27
Jan 2021	33	17	1	51
Feb 2021	19	10	2	31
Mar 2021	17	10	0	27
Apr 2021	21	17	2	40
May 2021	18	15	1	34
Jun 2021	17	20	1	38
Jul 2021	10	24	0	34
Aug 2021	18	7	3	28
Sep 2021	16	27	0	43
Oct 2021	16	32	0	48
Nov 2021	16	27	0	43
Dec 2021	18	13	1	32
Jan 2022	32	24	1	57
Feb 2022	16	8	1	25
Mar 2022	19	12	0	31
Apr 2022	20	13	4	37
May 2022	14	6	0	20
Jun 2022	19	4	4	27
Jul 2022	16	5	1	22
Aug 2022	32	14	0	46
Sep 2022	18	13	0	31
Oct 2022	18	10	1	29
Nov 2022	16	12	0	28
Dec 2022	22	5	0	27
Jan 2023	29	18	1	48
Feb 2023	22	8	1	31
Mar 2023	19	14	2	35
Apr 2023	22	9	2	33
May 2023	32	13	0	45
Jun 2023	36	17	0	53
Jul 2023	24	6	3	33
Aug 2023	25	10	3	38
Sep 2023	11	10	0	21
Oct 2023	101	11	2	114
Nov 2023	144	10	1	155
Dec 2023	26	9	1	36
Jan 2024	14	12	1	27
Feb 2024	16	13	2	31
Mar 2024	17	21	3	41
Apr 2024	25	15	4	44
May 2024	17	13	6	36
Jun 2024	32	7	2	41
Jul 2024	28	8	3	39
Aug 2024	33	7	2	42
Sep 2024	17	13	0	30
Oct 2024	22	2	0	24
Nov 2024	14	4	5	23
Dec 2024	12	2	2	16
Jan 2025	30	10	3	43
Feb 2025	38	8	4	50
Mar 2025	30	10	3	43
Apr 2025	33	14	2	49
May 2025	32	4	0	36
Jun 2025	51	19	0	70
Jul 2025	40	22	3	65
Aug 2025	40	15	4	59
Sep 2025	54	13	2	69
Oct 2025	24	19	3	46
Nov 2025	37	17	5	59

Latest update: 27 Nov 2025

Short summary

Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.