Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake
Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo A.; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Rivas, Denny S.; Portocarrero, Cesar; McKinney, Daene C.

doi:10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016

Articles | Volume 20, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2519-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 6

Research article

|

01 Jul 2016

Research article |

| 01 Jul 2016

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Rachel E. Chisolm, Denny S. Rivas, Cesar Portocarrero, and Daene C. McKinney

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2016	50	29	0	79
Feb 2016	42	35	4	81
Mar 2016	29	22	1	52
Apr 2016	16	15	0	31
May 2016	12	7	0	19
Jun 2016	8	8	0	16
Jul 2016	84	37	3	124
Aug 2016	15	13	1	29
Sep 2016	14	14	0	28
Oct 2016	28	36	9	73
Nov 2016	21	34	5	60
Dec 2016	4	17	2	23
Jan 2017	20	48	0	68
Feb 2017	15	44	2	61
Mar 2017	29	55	3	87
Apr 2017	33	31	0	64
May 2017	28	35	1	64
Jun 2017	33	40	3	76
Jul 2017	24	29	1	54
Aug 2017	7	14	0	21
Sep 2017	11	32	0	43
Oct 2017	7	42	0	49
Nov 2017	15	76	4	95
Dec 2017	20	51	11	82
Jan 2018	8	28	14	50
Feb 2018	14	31	4	49
Mar 2018	11	39	11	61
Apr 2018	19	52	0	71
May 2018	15	34	1	50
Jun 2018	13	38	2	53
Jul 2018	14	40	1	55
Aug 2018	18	34	1	53
Sep 2018	19	52	0	71
Oct 2018	21	109	2	132
Nov 2018	19	34	2	55
Dec 2018	16	31	3	50
Jan 2019	13	29	2	44
Feb 2019	15	25	0	40
Mar 2019	9	25	0	34
Apr 2019	13	26	1	40
May 2019	16	28	0	44
Jun 2019	8	29	0	37
Jul 2019	15	34	0	49
Aug 2019	11	27	1	39
Sep 2019	8	50	0	58
Oct 2019	16	29	1	46
Nov 2019	18	9	1	28
Dec 2019	9	12	2	23
Jan 2020	21	13	2	36
Feb 2020	18	8	0	26
Mar 2020	12	19	1	32
Apr 2020	17	16	1	34
May 2020	16	19	0	35
Jun 2020	20	19	0	39
Jul 2020	23	28	5	56
Aug 2020	19	30	4	53
Sep 2020	21	35	0	56
Oct 2020	19	25	2	46
Nov 2020	17	27	0	44
Dec 2020	16	17	0	33
Jan 2021	24	15	0	39
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Apr 2021	28	31	2	61
May 2021	27	30	1	58
Jun 2021	20	24	0	44
Jul 2021	24	29	0	53
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Sep 2021	90	34	2	126
Oct 2021	54	98	0	152
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Jan 2022	33	48	1	82
Feb 2022	26	35	1	62
Mar 2022	32	36	6	74
Apr 2022	31	35	1	67
May 2022	28	39	3	70
Jun 2022	56	21	2	79
Jul 2022	26	22	2	50
Aug 2022	52	28	3	83
Sep 2022	42	42	4	88
Oct 2022	41	33	3	77
Nov 2022	44	26	1	71
Dec 2022	40	47	1	88
Jan 2023	59	39	3	101
Feb 2023	47	30	0	77
Mar 2023	68	60	4	132
Apr 2023	45	27	4	76
May 2023	52	45	5	102
Jun 2023	50	30	2	82
Jul 2023	32	20	3	55
Aug 2023	19	16	1	36
Sep 2023	30	26	2	58
Oct 2023	32	27	1	60
Nov 2023	31	22	0	53
Dec 2023	32	25	4	61
Jan 2024	39	75	1	115
Feb 2024	31	57	1	89
Mar 2024	39	72	4	115
Apr 2024	47	56	10	113
May 2024	40	31	3	74
Jun 2024	37	40	4	81
Jul 2024	26	35	3	64
Aug 2024	54	39	3	96
Sep 2024	50	38	1	89
Oct 2024	29	30	1	60
Nov 2024	26	10	0	36
Dec 2024	41	48	2	91
Jan 2025	45	49	2	96
Feb 2025	49	14	1	64
Mar 2025	187	21	3	211
Apr 2025	123	26	1	150
May 2025	61	19	2	82
Jun 2025	94	50	0	144
Jul 2025	52	40	3	95
Aug 2025	127	53	1	181
Sep 2025	77	56	1	134
Oct 2025	51	38	0	89
Nov 2025	84	59	4	147
Dec 2025	107	87	3	197
Jan 2026	62	66	9	137

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Jan 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2016	50	29	0	79
Feb 2016	42	35	4	81
Mar 2016	29	22	1	52
Apr 2016	16	15	0	31
May 2016	12	7	0	19
Jun 2016	8	8	0	16
Jul 2016	84	37	3	124
Aug 2016	15	13	1	29
Sep 2016	14	14	0	28
Oct 2016	28	36	9	73
Nov 2016	21	34	5	60
Dec 2016	4	17	2	23
Jan 2017	20	48	0	68
Feb 2017	15	44	2	61
Mar 2017	29	55	3	87
Apr 2017	33	31	0	64
May 2017	28	35	1	64
Jun 2017	33	40	3	76
Jul 2017	24	29	1	54
Aug 2017	7	14	0	21
Sep 2017	11	32	0	43
Oct 2017	7	42	0	49
Nov 2017	15	76	4	95
Dec 2017	20	51	11	82
Jan 2018	8	28	14	50
Feb 2018	14	31	4	49
Mar 2018	11	39	11	61
Apr 2018	19	52	0	71
May 2018	15	34	1	50
Jun 2018	13	38	2	53
Jul 2018	14	40	1	55
Aug 2018	18	34	1	53
Sep 2018	19	52	0	71
Oct 2018	21	109	2	132
Nov 2018	19	34	2	55
Dec 2018	16	31	3	50
Jan 2019	13	29	2	44
Feb 2019	15	25	0	40
Mar 2019	9	25	0	34
Apr 2019	13	26	1	40
May 2019	16	28	0	44
Jun 2019	8	29	0	37
Jul 2019	15	34	0	49
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Apr 2020	17	16	1	34
May 2020	16	19	0	35
Jun 2020	20	19	0	39
Jul 2020	23	28	5	56
Aug 2020	19	30	4	53
Sep 2020	21	35	0	56
Oct 2020	19	25	2	46
Nov 2020	17	27	0	44
Dec 2020	16	17	0	33
Jan 2021	24	15	0	39
Feb 2021	61	24	3	88
Mar 2021	43	33	2	78
Apr 2021	28	31	2	61
May 2021	27	30	1	58
Jun 2021	20	24	0	44
Jul 2021	24	29	0	53
Aug 2021	21	42	0	63
Sep 2021	90	34	2	126
Oct 2021	54	98	0	152
Nov 2021	26	66	0	92
Dec 2021	31	34	0	65
Jan 2022	33	48	1	82
Feb 2022	26	35	1	62
Mar 2022	32	36	6	74
Apr 2022	31	35	1	67
May 2022	28	39	3	70
Jun 2022	56	21	2	79
Jul 2022	26	22	2	50
Aug 2022	52	28	3	83
Sep 2022	42	42	4	88
Oct 2022	41	33	3	77
Nov 2022	44	26	1	71
Dec 2022	40	47	1	88
Jan 2023	59	39	3	101
Feb 2023	47	30	0	77
Mar 2023	68	60	4	132
Apr 2023	45	27	4	76
May 2023	52	45	5	102
Jun 2023	50	30	2	82
Jul 2023	32	20	3	55
Aug 2023	19	16	1	36
Sep 2023	30	26	2	58
Oct 2023	32	27	1	60
Nov 2023	31	22	0	53
Dec 2023	32	25	4	61
Jan 2024	39	75	1	115
Feb 2024	31	57	1	89
Mar 2024	39	72	4	115
Apr 2024	47	56	10	113
May 2024	40	31	3	74
Jun 2024	37	40	4	81
Jul 2024	26	35	3	64
Aug 2024	54	39	3	96
Sep 2024	50	38	1	89
Oct 2024	29	30	1	60
Nov 2024	26	10	0	36
Dec 2024	41	48	2	91
Jan 2025	45	49	2	96
Feb 2025	49	14	1	64
Mar 2025	187	21	3	211
Apr 2025	123	26	1	150
May 2025	61	19	2	82
Jun 2025	94	50	0	144
Jul 2025	52	40	3	95
Aug 2025	127	53	1	181
Sep 2025	77	56	1	134
Oct 2025	51	38	0	89
Nov 2025	84	59	4	147
Dec 2025	107	87	3	197
Jan 2026	62	66	9	137

Latest update: 17 Jan 2026

Short summary

This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha above the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes starting form an avalanche falling into the lake and leading to a possible GLOF are simulated and converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine.