Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations

Asadieh, B.; Krakauer, N. Y.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-877-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-877-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-877-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

12 Feb 2015

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 12 Feb 2015

Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations

B. Asadieh and N. Y. Krakauer

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Total article views: 14,093 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
9,040	4,774	279	14,093	307	336

HTML: 9,040
PDF: 4,774
XML: 279
Total: 14,093
BibTeX: 307
EndNote: 336

Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Oct 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2014	174	107	3	284
Nov 2014	53	37	4	94
Dec 2014	38	28	3	69
Jan 2015	16	14	0	30
Feb 2015	417	206	11	634
Mar 2015	125	95	2	222
Apr 2015	100	61	2	163
May 2015	83	72	1	156
Jun 2015	111	106	1	218
Jul 2015	87	91	2	180
Aug 2015	80	85	0	165
Sep 2015	73	158	7	238
Oct 2015	95	85	6	186
Nov 2015	57	69	0	126
Dec 2015	41	65	2	108
Jan 2016	62	74	0	136
Feb 2016	44	55	4	103
Mar 2016	42	58	18	118
Apr 2016	19	46	0	65
May 2016	42	52	1	95
Jun 2016	21	26	1	48
Jul 2016	20	29	3	52
Aug 2016	17	26	0	43
Sep 2016	24	15	5	44
Oct 2016	23	11	6	40
Nov 2016	20	13	7	40
Dec 2016	10	7	1	18
Jan 2017	42	6	3	51
Feb 2017	28	11	1	40
Mar 2017	55	30	4	89
Apr 2017	63	27	5	95
May 2017	51	15	7	73
Jun 2017	53	28	4	85
Jul 2017	30	12	0	42
Aug 2017	23	16	2	41
Sep 2017	21	17	1	39
Oct 2017	16	21	0	37
Nov 2017	29	23	1	53
Dec 2017	27	31	1	59
Jan 2018	28	21	0	49
Feb 2018	46	27	2	75
Mar 2018	29	16	0	45
Apr 2018	20	15	0	35
May 2018	18	21	1	40
Jun 2018	16	26	0	42
Jul 2018	22	35	2	59
Aug 2018	22	20	0	42
Sep 2018	26	20	1	47
Oct 2018	27	26	1	54
Nov 2018	28	30	3	61
Dec 2018	19	32	0	51
Jan 2019	19	17	1	37
Feb 2019	10	12	1	23
Mar 2019	54	17	0	71
Apr 2019	57	37	0	94
May 2019	43	22	0	65
Jun 2019	48	13	1	62
Jul 2019	56	22	1	79
Aug 2019	58	11	0	69
Sep 2019	45	4	1	50
Oct 2019	65	25	2	92
Nov 2019	56	19	1	76
Dec 2019	60	12	1	73
Jan 2020	52	17	1	70
Feb 2020	49	12	0	61
Mar 2020	54	13	4	71
Apr 2020	71	12	0	83
May 2020	83	4	0	87
Jun 2020	72	15	1	88
Jul 2020	75	20	11	106
Aug 2020	78	17	6	101
Sep 2020	74	13	0	87
Oct 2020	52	20	0	72
Nov 2020	46	13	0	59
Dec 2020	93	15	1	109
Jan 2021	96	23	0	119
Feb 2021	80	24	0	104
Mar 2021	88	18	1	107
Apr 2021	61	35	5	101
May 2021	77	26	0	103
Jun 2021	79	38	0	117
Jul 2021	70	26	0	96
Aug 2021	49	21	1	71
Sep 2021	72	30	5	107
Oct 2021	65	52	1	118
Nov 2021	89	68	1	158
Dec 2021	69	18	0	87
Jan 2022	62	31	2	95
Feb 2022	65	44	2	111
Mar 2022	65	37	1	103
Apr 2022	74	30	1	105
May 2022	68	21	0	89
Jun 2022	53	30	4	87
Jul 2022	48	20	0	68
Aug 2022	82	30	2	114
Sep 2022	67	17	1	85
Oct 2022	82	38	2	122
Nov 2022	74	27	0	101
Dec 2022	89	43	2	134
Jan 2023	97	41	7	145
Feb 2023	87	33	3	123
Mar 2023	107	44	7	158
Apr 2023	59	40	1	100
May 2023	77	35	2	114
Jun 2023	63	24	1	88
Jul 2023	77	36	8	121
Aug 2023	78	31	1	110
Sep 2023	135	41	2	178
Oct 2023	273	45	4	322
Nov 2023	298	34	0	332
Dec 2023	64	34	1	99
Jan 2024	71	46	2	119
Feb 2024	68	39	2	109
Mar 2024	59	104	3	166
Apr 2024	67	35	7	109
May 2024	70	67	6	143
Jun 2024	98	32	4	134
Jul 2024	56	34	3	93
Aug 2024	95	32	1	128
Sep 2024	56	20	0	76
Oct 2024	88	61	0	149
Nov 2024	49	20	1	70
Dec 2024	61	28	1	90
Jan 2025	69	24	0	93
Feb 2025	100	41	2	143
Mar 2025	93	28	1	122
Apr 2025	95	36	2	133
May 2025	122	31	0	153
Jun 2025	104	37	2	143
Jul 2025	110	29	2	141
Aug 2025	89	47	1	137
Sep 2025	87	36	1	124
Oct 2025	83	62	3	148
Nov 2025	89	86	3	178
Dec 2025	19	15	2	36

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Oct 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2014	174	107	3	284
Nov 2014	53	37	4	94
Dec 2014	38	28	3	69
Jan 2015	16	14	0	30
Feb 2015	417	206	11	634
Mar 2015	125	95	2	222
Apr 2015	100	61	2	163
May 2015	83	72	1	156
Jun 2015	111	106	1	218
Jul 2015	87	91	2	180
Aug 2015	80	85	0	165
Sep 2015	73	158	7	238
Oct 2015	95	85	6	186
Nov 2015	57	69	0	126
Dec 2015	41	65	2	108
Jan 2016	62	74	0	136
Feb 2016	44	55	4	103
Mar 2016	42	58	18	118
Apr 2016	19	46	0	65
May 2016	42	52	1	95
Jun 2016	21	26	1	48
Jul 2016	20	29	3	52
Aug 2016	17	26	0	43
Sep 2016	24	15	5	44
Oct 2016	23	11	6	40
Nov 2016	20	13	7	40
Dec 2016	10	7	1	18
Jan 2017	42	6	3	51
Feb 2017	28	11	1	40
Mar 2017	55	30	4	89
Apr 2017	63	27	5	95
May 2017	51	15	7	73
Jun 2017	53	28	4	85
Jul 2017	30	12	0	42
Aug 2017	23	16	2	41
Sep 2017	21	17	1	39
Oct 2017	16	21	0	37
Nov 2017	29	23	1	53
Dec 2017	27	31	1	59
Jan 2018	28	21	0	49
Feb 2018	46	27	2	75
Mar 2018	29	16	0	45
Apr 2018	20	15	0	35
May 2018	18	21	1	40
Jun 2018	16	26	0	42
Jul 2018	22	35	2	59
Aug 2018	22	20	0	42
Sep 2018	26	20	1	47
Oct 2018	27	26	1	54
Nov 2018	28	30	3	61
Dec 2018	19	32	0	51
Jan 2019	19	17	1	37
Feb 2019	10	12	1	23
Mar 2019	54	17	0	71
Apr 2019	57	37	0	94
May 2019	43	22	0	65
Jun 2019	48	13	1	62
Jul 2019	56	22	1	79
Aug 2019	58	11	0	69
Sep 2019	45	4	1	50
Oct 2019	65	25	2	92
Nov 2019	56	19	1	76
Dec 2019	60	12	1	73
Jan 2020	52	17	1	70
Feb 2020	49	12	0	61
Mar 2020	54	13	4	71
Apr 2020	71	12	0	83
May 2020	83	4	0	87
Jun 2020	72	15	1	88
Jul 2020	75	20	11	106
Aug 2020	78	17	6	101
Sep 2020	74	13	0	87
Oct 2020	52	20	0	72
Nov 2020	46	13	0	59
Dec 2020	93	15	1	109
Jan 2021	96	23	0	119
Feb 2021	80	24	0	104
Mar 2021	88	18	1	107
Apr 2021	61	35	5	101
May 2021	77	26	0	103
Jun 2021	79	38	0	117
Jul 2021	70	26	0	96
Aug 2021	49	21	1	71
Sep 2021	72	30	5	107
Oct 2021	65	52	1	118
Nov 2021	89	68	1	158
Dec 2021	69	18	0	87
Jan 2022	62	31	2	95
Feb 2022	65	44	2	111
Mar 2022	65	37	1	103
Apr 2022	74	30	1	105
May 2022	68	21	0	89
Jun 2022	53	30	4	87
Jul 2022	48	20	0	68
Aug 2022	82	30	2	114
Sep 2022	67	17	1	85
Oct 2022	82	38	2	122
Nov 2022	74	27	0	101
Dec 2022	89	43	2	134
Jan 2023	97	41	7	145
Feb 2023	87	33	3	123
Mar 2023	107	44	7	158
Apr 2023	59	40	1	100
May 2023	77	35	2	114
Jun 2023	63	24	1	88
Jul 2023	77	36	8	121
Aug 2023	78	31	1	110
Sep 2023	135	41	2	178
Oct 2023	273	45	4	322
Nov 2023	298	34	0	332
Dec 2023	64	34	1	99
Jan 2024	71	46	2	119
Feb 2024	68	39	2	109
Mar 2024	59	104	3	166
Apr 2024	67	35	7	109
May 2024	70	67	6	143
Jun 2024	98	32	4	134
Jul 2024	56	34	3	93
Aug 2024	95	32	1	128
Sep 2024	56	20	0	76
Oct 2024	88	61	0	149
Nov 2024	49	20	1	70
Dec 2024	61	28	1	90
Jan 2025	69	24	0	93
Feb 2025	100	41	2	143
Mar 2025	93	28	1	122
Apr 2025	95	36	2	133
May 2025	122	31	0	153
Jun 2025	104	37	2	143
Jul 2025	110	29	2	141
Aug 2025	89	47	1	137
Sep 2025	87	36	1	124
Oct 2025	83	62	3	148
Nov 2025	89	86	3	178
Dec 2025	19	15	2	36

Latest update: 06 Dec 2025

Short summary

We present a systematic comparison of changes in historical extreme precipitation in station observations (HadEX2) and 15 climate models from the CMIP5 (as the largest and most recent sets of available observational and modeled data sets), on global and continental scales for 1901-2010, using both parametric (linear regression) and non-parametric (the Mann-Kendall as well as Sen’s slope estimator) methods, taking care to sample observations and models spatially and temporally in comparable ways.