Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015
Research article
 | 
28 Jul 2015
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2015

Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF

C. Lavaysse, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger

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Short summary
This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance using ensemble prediction systems. It has been shown that, on average and using the most relevant method, 40 % of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted, with less than 25 % false alarms. This study is a reference for other studies that are motivated to improving the drought forecasting.