Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jul 2015
Research article |
| 28 Jul 2015
Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF
C. Lavaysse
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra (Va), Italy
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra (Va), Italy
F. Pappenberger
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Predictability of the European heat and cold waves C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4273-5
- An integrated assessment of extreme hydrometeorological events in Bangladesh S. Moghim & A. Takallou https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02404-5
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704
- Experts views on water scarcity and flooding from six countries around the Black Sea region G. Zaimes & C. Kiosses https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2021.26800
- Revisiting interannual to decadal teleconnections influencing seasonal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa during the 20th century T. Bahaga et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5986
- Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System H. Carrão et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020048
- An integrated framework of input determination for ensemble forecasts of monthly estuarine saltwater intrusion P. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126225
- Improving short to medium range GEFS precipitation forecast in India S. Saminathan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126431
- On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
- Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts M. Turco et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7859
- Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation of Sub-Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts at Various Spatiotemporal Scales over China during the Boreal Summer Monsoon Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081049
- Building Capacity for a User-Centred Integrated Early Warning System for Drought in Papua New Guinea J. Bhardwaj et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163307
- Predicting hydrological drought at global scale: an analysis of the CEMS seasonal forecasts V. García-Gamero et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07751-w
- Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach D. Richardson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
- How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe A. Shyrokaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
- Evaluation of a New Precipitation-Based Index for Global Seasonal Forecasting of Unusually Wet and Dry Periods C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0196.1
- Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought R. Biella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026
- Multimodel comparison and assessment of short to medium range precipitation and temperature forecasts over India: Implications towards forecasting of meteorological indices in India S. Saminathan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8409
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Predictability of the European heat and cold waves C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4273-5
- An integrated assessment of extreme hydrometeorological events in Bangladesh S. Moghim & A. Takallou https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02404-5
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704
- Experts views on water scarcity and flooding from six countries around the Black Sea region G. Zaimes & C. Kiosses https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2021.26800
- Revisiting interannual to decadal teleconnections influencing seasonal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa during the 20th century T. Bahaga et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5986
- Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System H. Carrão et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020048
- An integrated framework of input determination for ensemble forecasts of monthly estuarine saltwater intrusion P. Lu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126225
- Improving short to medium range GEFS precipitation forecast in India S. Saminathan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126431
- On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
- Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts M. Turco et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7859
- Deterministic and Probabilistic Evaluation of Sub-Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts at Various Spatiotemporal Scales over China during the Boreal Summer Monsoon Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081049
- Building Capacity for a User-Centred Integrated Early Warning System for Drought in Papua New Guinea J. Bhardwaj et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13163307
- Predicting hydrological drought at global scale: an analysis of the CEMS seasonal forecasts V. García-Gamero et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07751-w
- Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach D. Richardson et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020
- How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe A. Shyrokaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
- Evaluation of a New Precipitation-Based Index for Global Seasonal Forecasting of Unusually Wet and Dry Periods C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0196.1
- Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought R. Biella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026
- Multimodel comparison and assessment of short to medium range precipitation and temperature forecasts over India: Implications towards forecasting of meteorological indices in India S. Saminathan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8409
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Sep 2026
Short summary
This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance using ensemble prediction systems.
It has been shown that, on average and using the most relevant method, 40 % of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted, with less than 25 % false alarms.
This study is a reference for other studies that are motivated to improving the drought forecasting.
This paper assesses the predictability of meteorological droughts over Europe 1 month in advance...
