Articles | Volume 19, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2981-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2981-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jul 2015
Research article |
| 01 Jul 2015
Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction
J. P. Rodríguez-Rincón
National Autonomous University of Mexico, Institute of Engineering, D.F., Mexico City, Mexico
A. Pedrozo-Acuña
National Autonomous University of Mexico, Institute of Engineering, D.F., Mexico City, Mexico
J. A. Breña-Naranjo
National Autonomous University of Mexico, Institute of Engineering, D.F., Mexico City, Mexico
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- Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic‐Hydraulic Modeling of Floods S. Grimaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024289
- Hydro‐meteorological approach for the estimation of hurricane‐induced floods D. Fernández‐Rivera et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12454
- Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses A. Zischg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018
- Advances and challenges in predicting wave runup in coastal regions: A scoping review of empirical, numerical, and AI-based approaches E. Amini et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105399
- A multi-scale ensemble-based framework for forecasting compound coastal-riverine flooding: The Hackensack-Passaic watershed and Newark Bay F. Saleh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.10.026
- A systematic review of natural flood management modelling: Approaches, limitations, and potential solutions B. Hill et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12899
- Management of dam discharge to reduce flood risk E. Herrera et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-17-3-7
- Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework S. Gangrade et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130157
- Evaluation of open‐access global digital elevation models (AW3D30, SRTM, and ASTER) for flood modelling purposes L. Courty et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12550
- Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling K. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9
- Runup uncertainty on planar beaches A. Torres-Freyermuth et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-019-01305-y
- Management of dam discharge to reduce flood risk E. Herrera et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2026-03-08
- Understanding the Uncertainty of the Lim River Basin Response to Changing Climate M. Stojkovic & S. Simonovic https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001964
- Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment Y. Umer et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05117-6
- Accounting for the uncertainty of precipitation forecasts and its impacts on probabilistic flood inundation mapping skill F. Gomez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135429
- Extending coupled hydrological-hydraulic model chains with a surrogate model for the estimation of flood losses A. Zischg et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.009
- Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change H. McMillan et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308
- Assessing the impact of AI-based meteorological postprocessing on seasonal hydrological forecasting skill in Mediterranean semi-arid basins D. De León Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103535
- Evaluation of ECMWF's forecasting system for probabilistic urban flood prediction: a case study in Mexico City M. López López et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2021.072
- On the role of uncertainty for the study of wave–structure interaction L. Palemón-Arcos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.09.005
- Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change V. Aich et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.021
- Uncertainty Analysis in Data-Scarce Urban Catchments H. Ballinas-González et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8110524
- Simulación de avenidas mediante un modelo hidráulico/hidrológico distribuido en un tramo urbano del río Ginel (Fuentes de Ebro) J. Fernández-Pato et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23863781.2019.1622473
- Sensitivity Analysis of the Rainfall–Runoff Modeling Parameters in Data-Scarce Urban Catchment H. Ballinas-González et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7040073
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Limits of Predictability of a Global Self-Similar Routing Model in a Local Self-Similar Environment N. Velasquez & R. Mantilla https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080791
- Assessment of CAR and GIDS Methods to Interpolate Rain Values in Mexico City in Flood Event G. Orozco-Aceves et al. https://doi.org/10.46842/ipn.cien.v22n1a05
- Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic‐Hydraulic Modeling of Floods S. Grimaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024289
- Hydro‐meteorological approach for the estimation of hurricane‐induced floods D. Fernández‐Rivera et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12454
- Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses A. Zischg et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018
- Advances and challenges in predicting wave runup in coastal regions: A scoping review of empirical, numerical, and AI-based approaches E. Amini et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105399
- A multi-scale ensemble-based framework for forecasting compound coastal-riverine flooding: The Hackensack-Passaic watershed and Newark Bay F. Saleh et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.10.026
- A systematic review of natural flood management modelling: Approaches, limitations, and potential solutions B. Hill et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12899
- Management of dam discharge to reduce flood risk E. Herrera et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-17-3-7
- Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework S. Gangrade et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130157
- Evaluation of open‐access global digital elevation models (AW3D30, SRTM, and ASTER) for flood modelling purposes L. Courty et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12550
- Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling K. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9
- Runup uncertainty on planar beaches A. Torres-Freyermuth et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-019-01305-y
- Management of dam discharge to reduce flood risk E. Herrera et al. https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2026-03-08
- Understanding the Uncertainty of the Lim River Basin Response to Changing Climate M. Stojkovic & S. Simonovic https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001964
- Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment Y. Umer et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05117-6
- Accounting for the uncertainty of precipitation forecasts and its impacts on probabilistic flood inundation mapping skill F. Gomez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135429
- Extending coupled hydrological-hydraulic model chains with a surrogate model for the estimation of flood losses A. Zischg et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.009
- Panta Rhei 2013–2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change H. McMillan et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308
- Assessing the impact of AI-based meteorological postprocessing on seasonal hydrological forecasting skill in Mediterranean semi-arid basins D. De León Pérez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103535
- Evaluation of ECMWF's forecasting system for probabilistic urban flood prediction: a case study in Mexico City M. López López et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2021.072
- On the role of uncertainty for the study of wave–structure interaction L. Palemón-Arcos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.09.005
- Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change V. Aich et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.021
- Uncertainty Analysis in Data-Scarce Urban Catchments H. Ballinas-González et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8110524
- Simulación de avenidas mediante un modelo hidráulico/hidrológico distribuido en un tramo urbano del río Ginel (Fuentes de Ebro) J. Fernández-Pato et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23863781.2019.1622473
- Sensitivity Analysis of the Rainfall–Runoff Modeling Parameters in Data-Scarce Urban Catchment H. Ballinas-González et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7040073
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Jun 2026
Short summary
The study is an investigation on the propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty within a model cascade applied to flood prediction.
Uncertainty is evaluated at meteorological and hydrological levels in a hindcast scenario, which allows for its generation from the rainfall prediction to its interaction at a catchment level, and propagation to an estimated inundation area and depth.
A complex aggregation of errors is demonstrated with larger effect on inundation depths than flood extents.
The study is an investigation on the propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty within a...
