Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Floods and their changes in historical times – a European...

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

Research article

|

02 Jun 2015

Research article |

| 02 Jun 2015

Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

M. J. Machado, B. A. Botero, J. López, F. Francés, A. Díez-Herrero, and G. Benito

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Apr 2015	18	30	2	50
May 2015	13	32	3	48
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Jul 2015	65	91	1	157
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Sep 2015	38	56	7	101
Oct 2015	41	64	3	108
Nov 2015	41	73	1	115
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Jul 2016	22	23	5	50
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Oct 2016	17	20	1	38
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Jan 2017	25	23	0	48
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Mar 2017	30	52	4	86
Apr 2017	38	37	4	79
May 2017	38	47	4	89
Jun 2017	37	20	11	68
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Feb 2018	12	34	0	46
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Aug 2019	9	32	1	42
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Jan 2020	16	19	2	37
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Apr 2020	10	19	0	29
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Jan 2023	36	36	3	75
Feb 2023	34	31	4	69
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Apr 2023	19	31	2	52
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Jun 2023	17	24	0	41
Jul 2023	21	14	4	39
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Oct 2023	112	36	2	150
Nov 2023	166	12	1	179
Dec 2023	26	18	2	46
Jan 2024	26	18	0	44
Feb 2024	33	27	0	60
Mar 2024	26	29	3	58
Apr 2024	47	27	7	81
May 2024	53	30	6	89
Jun 2024	40	33	1	74
Jul 2024	42	46	6	94
Aug 2024	63	41	0	104
Sep 2024	29	34	1	64
Oct 2024	35	20	1	56
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Dec 2024	23	29	1	53
Jan 2025	31	31	1	63
Feb 2025	50	13	1	64
Mar 2025	46	23	4	73
Apr 2025	36	33	0	69
May 2025	34	24	0	58
Jun 2025	64	39	1	104
Jul 2025	58	26	0	84
Aug 2025	47	50	5	102
Sep 2025	78	31	3	112
Oct 2025	46	33	3	82
Nov 2025	21	27	0	48

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Jan 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2015	40	32	1	73
Feb 2015	18	40	2	60
Mar 2015	18	30	3	51
Apr 2015	18	30	2	50
May 2015	13	32	3	48
Jun 2015	181	137	7	325
Jul 2015	65	91	1	157
Aug 2015	31	78	1	110
Sep 2015	38	56	7	101
Oct 2015	41	64	3	108
Nov 2015	41	73	1	115
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Jan 2023	36	36	3	75
Feb 2023	34	31	4	69
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Apr 2023	19	31	2	52
May 2023	27	25	1	53
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Jul 2023	21	14	4	39
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Nov 2023	166	12	1	179
Dec 2023	26	18	2	46
Jan 2024	26	18	0	44
Feb 2024	33	27	0	60
Mar 2024	26	29	3	58
Apr 2024	47	27	7	81
May 2024	53	30	6	89
Jun 2024	40	33	1	74
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Aug 2024	63	41	0	104
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Oct 2024	35	20	1	56
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Dec 2024	23	29	1	53
Jan 2025	31	31	1	63
Feb 2025	50	13	1	64
Mar 2025	46	23	4	73
Apr 2025	36	33	0	69
May 2025	34	24	0	58
Jun 2025	64	39	1	104
Jul 2025	58	26	0	84
Aug 2025	47	50	5	102
Sep 2025	78	31	3	112
Oct 2025	46	33	3	82
Nov 2025	21	27	0	48

Latest update: 18 Nov 2025

Short summary

A flood frequency analysis using a 400-year historical flood record was carried out using a stationary model (based on maximum likelihood estimators) and a non-stationary model that incorporates external covariates (climatic and environmental). The stationary model was successful in providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time.