Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jul 2014
Research article |
| 24 Jul 2014
Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
Group on Earth Observations, Geneva, Switzerland
F. Wetterhall
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
F. Di Giuseppe
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
L. Magnusson
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
G. Naumann
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
P. Barbosa
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
F. Pappenberger
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
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47 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems J. Madrigal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.046
- Predicting the U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part II: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts D. Lorenz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0067.1
- Evaluation of a New Precipitation-Based Index for Global Seasonal Forecasting of Unusually Wet and Dry Periods C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0196.1
- Flash drought monitoring using diurnal-provided evaporative demand drought index H. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130961
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- Do CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts Help Improve the Forecast of Meteorological Drought over Mainland China? Y. Lang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12072010
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000549
- SEAS5 skilfully predicts late wet‐season precipitation in Central American Dry Corridor excelling in Costa Rica and Nicaragua K. Kowal et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7514
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- Efficiency of monsoon mission climate forecast system (CFSv2-T382) to predict the large-scale and regional short-term drought over India during boreal summer and its possible controlling factors G. Lekshmi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07284-1
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- Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain) T. Van Hateren et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105206
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- Characterizing Inter-Seasonal Meteorological Drought Using Random Effect Logistic Regression A. Hussain et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16198433
- Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil V. Pereira et al. https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4499.2017007
- Probabilistic predictions for meteorological droughts based on multi-initial conditions M. Torres-Vázquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131662
- Drought Prediction System for Central Europe and Its Validation P. Štěpánek et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040104
- Assessment of Seasonal Soil Moisture Forecasts over Southern South America with Emphasis on Dry and Wet Events P. Spennemann et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0015.1
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- A review on climate‐model‐based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development X. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1088
- Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources N. Krakauer & D. Cohan https://doi.org/10.3390/resources6030029
- The Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Global Seasonal Droughts H. Yin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101673
- Sparse Canonical Correlation Analysis Postprocessing Algorithms for GCM Daily Rainfall Forecasts C. Lima et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0233.1
- A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti B. Monteleone et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-471-2020
- Monitoring and Predicting Drought Based on Multiple Indicators in an Arid Area, China Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12142298
- Enhancing long-lead rainfall forecasting in data-scarce large watersheds using multi-model fusion A. Tadayon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102936
- Will drought evolution accelerate under future climate? J. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132552
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b
- Development of a Hydrological Drought Forecasting Model Using Weather Forecasting Data from GloSea5 J. So et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102785
- Hydro-meteorological drought predictions and trend analysis for ungauged watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, under future climate change impact scenarios M. Wubneh et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.306
47 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System H. Carrão et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020048
- Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services S. Brands et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
- Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107028
- The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models M. Demirel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
- Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015
- Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems J. Madrigal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.046
- Predicting the U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part II: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts D. Lorenz et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0067.1
- Evaluation of a New Precipitation-Based Index for Global Seasonal Forecasting of Unusually Wet and Dry Periods C. Lavaysse et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0196.1
- Flash drought monitoring using diurnal-provided evaporative demand drought index H. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130961
- Catchment memory explains hydrological drought forecast performance S. Sutanto & H. Van Lanen https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06553-5
- Do CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts Help Improve the Forecast of Meteorological Drought over Mainland China? Y. Lang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12072010
- Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects Z. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000549
- SEAS5 skilfully predicts late wet‐season precipitation in Central American Dry Corridor excelling in Costa Rica and Nicaragua K. Kowal et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7514
- Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity J. Spinoni et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013
- Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa P. Trambauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1695-2015
- Enhancing seasonal fire predictions with hybrid dynamical and random forest models M. Torres-Vázquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00069-4
- Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems A. Scaife et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5855
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices L. Crochemore et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017
- Efficiency of monsoon mission climate forecast system (CFSv2-T382) to predict the large-scale and regional short-term drought over India during boreal summer and its possible controlling factors G. Lekshmi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07284-1
- Skill of ECMWF system‐4 ensemble seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa G. Ogutu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4876
- Evaluating skill and robustness of seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought forecasts at the catchment scale – Case Catalonia (Spain) T. Van Hateren et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105206
- Potential Predictability of North China Summer Drought L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0682.1
- A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts S. Bachmair et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016
- Potential of Pan-European Seasonal Hydrometeorological Drought Forecasts Obtained from a Multihazard Early Warning System S. Sutanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0196.1
- Characterizing Inter-Seasonal Meteorological Drought Using Random Effect Logistic Regression A. Hussain et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16198433
- Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil V. Pereira et al. https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-4499.2017007
- Probabilistic predictions for meteorological droughts based on multi-initial conditions M. Torres-Vázquez et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131662
- Drought Prediction System for Central Europe and Its Validation P. Štěpánek et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040104
- Assessment of Seasonal Soil Moisture Forecasts over Southern South America with Emphasis on Dry and Wet Events P. Spennemann et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0015.1
- Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting S. Sutanto & H. Van Lanen https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021
- A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China Z. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-529-2018
- Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts M. Turco et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7859
- Space and time variability of meteorological drought in Syria S. Mohammed et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00501-5
- SPI Drought Class Predictions Driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index Using Log-Linear Modeling E. Moreira et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8020043
- The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe F. Wetterhall & F. Di Giuseppe https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3409-2018
- Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards M. Allen-Dumas et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.562304
- A review on climate‐model‐based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development X. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1088
- Interannual Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Wind and Solar Resources N. Krakauer & D. Cohan https://doi.org/10.3390/resources6030029
- The Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Global Seasonal Droughts H. Yin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101673
- Sparse Canonical Correlation Analysis Postprocessing Algorithms for GCM Daily Rainfall Forecasts C. Lima et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0233.1
- A joint probabilistic index for objective drought identification: the case study of Haiti B. Monteleone et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-471-2020
- Monitoring and Predicting Drought Based on Multiple Indicators in an Arid Area, China Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12142298
- Enhancing long-lead rainfall forecasting in data-scarce large watersheds using multi-model fusion A. Tadayon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102936
- Will drought evolution accelerate under future climate? J. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132552
- Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions J. Acosta Navarro et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b
- Development of a Hydrological Drought Forecasting Model Using Weather Forecasting Data from GloSea5 J. So et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102785
- Hydro-meteorological drought predictions and trend analysis for ungauged watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, under future climate change impact scenarios M. Wubneh et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.306
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