Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-388
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-388
17 Jul 2017
 | 17 Jul 2017
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal HESS. A revision for further review has not been submitted.

Spatio-temporal trends in observed and downscaled precipitation over Ganga Basin

Himanshu Arora, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, Wouter Buytaert, Gujjunadu Suryaprakash Kaushika, and Chetan Sharma

Abstract. This paper focuses on the spatio-temporal trends of precipitation over the Ganga Basin in India for over 2 centuries. Trends in precipitation amounts are detected using observed data for historical period in 20th century and using downscaled precipitation data from 37 GCMs for 21st century. The ranking of 37 GCMs (from CMIP5 archive) is done employing a statistics based skill score. The best ranked GCM output is then bias corrected with observed precipitation prior to further analysis. The direction and magnitude of trend in annual and seasonal precipitation series is determined using Mann Kendall’s test statistic (ZMK) and Thiel Sen’s Slope estimator (β). The plots depicting the spatial variation of ZMK and β are prepared which provides a comprehensive inter-scenario comparison of spatio-temporal trends in precipitation series. Highly non-uniform spatio-temporal trends are detected for observed precipitation series. It is observed that the precipitation for annual and southwest monsoon season is indicating a rising trend for all future emission scenarios in the region adjacent to Himalayas (northeast side of study area) but shows falling trends in the plains away from the Himalayas. Insignificant trends are observed in pre-monsoon and winter season precipitation. An inter-emission-scenario comparison shows that for higher emission scenarios the annual and southwest monsoon precipitation is showing rising trends with increasing spatial dominance i.e. the area under rising trends increases as we observe it from low to high emission scenarios.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Himanshu Arora, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, Wouter Buytaert, Gujjunadu Suryaprakash Kaushika, and Chetan Sharma
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
Status: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Himanshu Arora, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, Wouter Buytaert, Gujjunadu Suryaprakash Kaushika, and Chetan Sharma
Himanshu Arora, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, Wouter Buytaert, Gujjunadu Suryaprakash Kaushika, and Chetan Sharma

Viewed

Total article views: 1,972 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,341 573 58 1,972 71 78
  • HTML: 1,341
  • PDF: 573
  • XML: 58
  • Total: 1,972
  • BibTeX: 71
  • EndNote: 78
Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jul 2017)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jul 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,873 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,861 with geography defined and 12 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 23 May 2024
Download
Short summary
In many agrarian countries (like India), the agricultural practices are usually rainfall dependent. Therefore keeping the water budget into account, precipitation being an important component must be analysed thoroughly for its occurrence and amount. The analysis of trends can provide an insight in understanding the possible impacts in future, which can assist living beings to adapt and cope up with changing climate and hydrological cycle.