Loading [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/fonts/TeX/fontdata.js
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-412
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-412
20 Sep 2016
 | 20 Sep 2016
Status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system

Huei-Tau Ouyang and Yi-Chun Chen

Abstract. This study presents a methodology for forecasting the extent of inundation and depth of distribution during typhoons in real-time. The proposed approach involves the construction of ARX and ARMAX models capable of predicting water-levels at the locations of on-site gauging stations and representative points located at the outlets of the sub-areas obtained by terrain analysis using a geographic information system. The models are constructed based on historical typhoon data and the results of numerical simulations related to inundation. A database comprising layers of inundation maps related to water-levels in each sub-area based on the assumption of flat-water and the digital elevation model (DEM) of the area were assembled prior to the typhoon. Water-levels during the typhoon are forecast using the constructed models, whereupon inundation sub-maps associated with the forecasted water-levels are extracted from the database. The resulting inundation map is comparable to that obtained using Synthetic Aperture Radar. Processing can be conducted in real-time and requires very little computational resources. This provides valuable lead time in which to conduct efforts aimed at damage mitigation during a typhoon.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Share
Download

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
A methodology integrating ARX-based models with a GIS for the forecasting of typhoon inundation...
Share