Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system

Abstract. This study presents a methodology for forecasting the extent of inundation and depth of distribution during typhoons in real-time. The proposed approach involves the construction of ARX and ARMAX models capable of predicting water-levels at the locations of on-site gauging stations and representative points located at the outlets of the sub-areas obtained by terrain analysis using a geographic information system. The models are constructed based on historical typhoon data and the results of numerical simulations related to inundation. A database comprising layers of inundation maps related to water-levels in each sub-area based on the assumption of flat-water and the digital elevation model (DEM) of the area were assembled prior to the typhoon. Water-levels during the typhoon are forecast using the constructed models, whereupon inundation sub-maps associated with the forecasted water-levels are extracted from the database. The resulting inundation map is comparable to that obtained using Synthetic Aperture Radar. Processing can be conducted in real-time and requires very little computational resources. This provides valuable lead time in which to conduct efforts aimed at damage mitigation during a typhoon.