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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HESSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HESSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1812-2116</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hess-2016-412</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ouyang</surname>
<given-names>Huei-Tau</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Yi-Chun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering, National Ilan University, Yilan city, Yilan County 260, Taiwan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>First River Management Office, Water Resources Agency, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan</addr-line>
</aff>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan</funding-source>
<award-id>105-2625-M-197-001</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2016</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2016 Huei-Tau Ouyang</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2016</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2016-412/">This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2016-412/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2016-412/hess-2016-412.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/preprints/hess-2016-412/hess-2016-412.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>This study presents a methodology for forecasting the extent of inundation and depth of distribution during typhoons in real-time. The proposed approach involves the construction of ARX and ARMAX models capable of predicting water-levels at the locations of on-site gauging stations and representative points located at the outlets of the sub-areas obtained by terrain analysis using a geographic information system. The models are constructed based on historical typhoon data and the results of numerical simulations related to inundation. A database comprising layers of inundation maps related to water-levels in each sub-area based on the assumption of flat-water and the digital elevation model (DEM) of the area were assembled prior to the typhoon. Water-levels during the typhoon are forecast using the constructed models, whereupon inundation sub-maps associated with the forecasted water-levels are extracted from the database. The resulting inundation map is comparable to that obtained using Synthetic Aperture Radar. Processing can be conducted in real-time and requires very little computational resources. This provides valuable lead time in which to conduct efforts aimed at damage mitigation during a typhoon.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
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