Articles | Volume 30, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1625-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1625-2026
Research article
 | 
30 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 30 Mar 2026

A highly generalizable data-driven model for spatiotemporal urban flood dynamics real-time forecasting based on coupled CNN and ConvLSTM

Wangqi Lou, Xichao Gao, Joseph Hun Wei Lee, Jiahong Liu, Lirong Dong, and Kai Gao

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Cited articles

Aas, K., Jullum, M., and Løland, A.: Explaining individual predictions when features are dependent: More accurate approximations to Shapley values, Artif. Intell., 298, 103502, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2021.103502, 2021. a
Adadi, A. and Berrada, M.: Peeking inside the black-box: a survey on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), IEEE Access, 6, 52138–52160, https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2870052, 2018. a
Aderyani, F. R., Jafarzadegan, K., and Moradkhani, H.: A surrogate machine learning modeling approach for enhancing the efficiency of urban flood modeling at metropolitan scales, Sustain. Cities Soc., 123, 106277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106277, 2025. a
Ahmad, R., Yang, B., Ettlin, G., Berger, A., and Rodríguez-Bocca, P.: A machine-learning based ConvLSTM architecture for NDVI forecasting, Int. T. Oper. Res., 30, 2025–2048, https://doi.org/10.1111/itor.12887, 2023. a
Altieri, M., Ceci, M., and Corizzo, R.: An end-to-end explainability framework for spatio-temporal predictive modeling, Machine Learning, 114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-024-06733-6, 2025. a
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Short summary
With global warming and urbanization accelerating, urban flooding is becoming more severe. Real-time forecasting plays a key role in disaster mitigation, but traditional hydrodynamic models are too resource-intensive for timely prediction. Machine learning models offer high efficiency but often lack accuracy in simulating spatiotemporal flood dynamics. This study proposes a new data-driven model, which performs well in a flood-prone area of Macao.
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