Articles | Volume 29, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3569-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3569-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Consequences of the Aral Sea restoration for its present physical state: temperature, mixing, and oxygen regime
Georgiy B. Kirillin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Ecohydrology and Biogeochemistry, Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany
Tom Shatwell
Department of Environmental Engineering and Applied Computer Science, Lemgo, Germany, Ostwestfalen-Lippe University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Germany
Alexander S. Izhitskiy
Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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The under-ice water temperature of Ngoring Lake has been rising based on in situ observations. We obtained results showing that strong downward shortwave radiation is the main meteorological factor, and precipitation, wind speed, downward longwave radiation, air temperature, ice albedo, and ice extinction coefficient have an impact on the range and rate of lake temperature rise. Once the ice breaks, the lake body releases more energy than other lakes, whose water temperature remains horizontal.
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Short summary
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Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
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In this study, we have evaluated the importance of the input of energy conveyed by river inflows into lakes and reservoirs when modeling surface water energy fluxes. Our results suggest that there is a strong correlation between water residence time and the surface water temperature prediction error and that the combined use of process-based physical models and machine-learning models will considerably improve the modeling of air–lake heat and moisture fluxes.
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Editorial statement
The Aral Sea represents both an example of large-scale environmental degradation caused by human activity and a message of hope through its partial restoration. This follow-up study emphasizes that while the system appears healthy at present, it lacks resilience and small perturbations could significantly alter the entire ecosystem. The topic of the paper is of broad interest and the results of the analysis are also important for the management of the region.
The Aral Sea represents both an example of large-scale environmental degradation caused by human...
Short summary
The Aral Sea is both an example of large-scale environmental degradation caused by human activity and a message of hope through its partial restoration. Our study shows that the restored part of the Aral Sea is now healthy in terms of vertical mixing and oxygenation. However, small perturbations of water level or transparency could significantly alter the entire ecosystem. The results contribute to understanding the consequences of large-scale lake management worldwide.
The Aral Sea is both an example of large-scale environmental degradation caused by human...