Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2831-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2831-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 28, issue 13
Research article
 | 
03 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 03 Jul 2024

Using the classical model for structured expert judgment to estimate extremes: a case study of discharges in the Meuse River

Guus Rongen, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, and Matthijs Kok

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Short summary
This study proposes a new method for predicting extreme events such as floods on the river Meuse. The current method was shown to be unreliable as it did not predict a recent flood. We developed a model that includes information from experts and combines this with measurements. We found that this approach gives more accurate predictions, particularly for extreme events. The research is important for predictions of extreme flood levels that are necessary for protecting communities against floods.
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