Articles | Volume 28, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 May 2024
Research article |
| 23 May 2024
| 23 May 2024
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Santa Fe, Argentina
Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas (FICH), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL), Santa Fe, Argentina
Patrick C. McGuire
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Pier Luigi Vidale
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Ed Hawkins
Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133414
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- Human dimension of urban flood risk and informal resilience in Peshawar, Pakistan M. Jan et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2025.1725174
- Su Ekosistemleri ve İklim Değişikliği: Entegre Bir Yaklaşımla Etkilerin Değerlendirilmesi Z. Reçber & M. Safa https://doi.org/10.53433/yyufbed.1747095
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- Emerging hotspots of agricultural drought under climate change E. Black et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01898-8
- Betting the farm while irrigation supplies dwindle B. Richter https://doi.org/10.1007/s44279-025-00175-x
- Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Small Catchment: The Krapina River near Kupljenovo O. Bonacci et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17091403
- Unravelling the hydrologic impact of climate change in the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania E. Mukama et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae1ed9
- Assessment of Water Balance and Future Runoff in the Nitra River Basin, Slovakia P. Pekárová et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18020208
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- A comparison of hydrological impacts from two ensembles of regional climate projections with a range of climate sensitivities A. Kay https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02426-5
- Climate variability conceals emerging hydrological trends across Great Britain W. Chan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133414
- A Global Assessment of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Effects on Changes in Streamflow R. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04448-4
- Assessing Climate Change and Reservoir Impacts on Upper Miño River Flow (NW Iberian Peninsula) Using Neural Networks H. Barreiro-Fonta & D. Fernández-Nóvoa https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243514
- Assessing the effects of climate change on the streamflow of the major river basins of central India M. Kavya et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103219
- Past and future change in global river flows L. Gudmundsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00745-z
- Non-stationary flood frequency analysis by a new decomposition-based method considering external forcing and internal variability of the climate system Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133560
- Determination of pollution indices of narmada river: an integrated approach using remote sensing and geochemical analysis H. Neha et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10751-026-02549-z
- From low flows to ecosystem stress: Temporal patterns of ecological risk driven by emerging contaminants R. Duda et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2026.128463
- Extreme climate events, profitability, and risk of commercial banks in Asia-Pacific countries: empirical evidence and the capital buffer effect H. Do et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2026.2687955
- Hydrological response to glacier peak water in the largest inland river basin of China H. Lyu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695
- Effects of climate change on river and groundwater nutrient inputs to the coastal ocean C. Richardson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02594-6
- River discharge impacts coastal southeastern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and circulation: a model-based analysis L. Aroucha et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-661-2025
- Two decades of river discharge from multi-mission multispectral data P. Filippucci et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.114919
- Variability of flowing stream network length across the US J. Prancevic et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ado2860
- Dynamically downscaled future projections of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean across low to high emissions scenarios D. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1987-2026
- Persistence and connectivity of in-channel waterholes in the Darling (Baaka) River – An analysis using satellite imagery and graph theory K. O'Mara et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124152
- The overlooked impacts of freshwater scarcity on oceans as evidenced by the Mediterranean Sea D. Macias et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54979-4
- Assessing and optimizing high-resolution global river streamflow estimates with triple collocation analysis M. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135122
- Flooding, nonlinear scaling and Jensen’s inequality: Analyzing changes in inundation extent with river discharge nonstationarity A. Baruah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105170
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 19 Jul 2026
Short summary
This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent past in the context of a warming world. We show that important rivers of the world will notably change their flows, mainly during peaks, exceeding the variations that rivers used to exhibit. Such large changes may produce more frequent floods, alter hydropower generation, and potentially affect the ocean's circulation.
This work evaluates how rivers are projected to change in the near future compared to the recent...
