Articles | Volume 28, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-117-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 08 Jan 2024
| 08 Jan 2024
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Celray James Chawanda
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Blackland Research & Extension Center, Temple, TX 76502, USA
Albert Nkwasa
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Wim Thiery
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Ann van Griensven
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, the Netherlands
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41 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Assessing climate change's impacts on hydrology using the SWAT model: a literature review W. El Harraki & M. Zemzami https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.665
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- Critical zones, disaster risk science, and education for sustainable development in Africa W. Lunga et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2025.1635554
- Streamflow variability under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios using QSWAT plus for Subansiri River Basin in Arunachal Pradesh, India G. Goswami et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05496-x
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- River flow and sediment concentration changes in the Wu-Xi River, central Taiwan, under CMIP6 scenarios Y. Su & Y. Chen https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2026.299
- Catchment-based water resources modelling and planning of the transboundary Inkisi River in the Congo Basin L. Nkaba et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2025.2511806
- Unravelling the hydrologic impact of climate change in the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania E. Mukama et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae1ed9
- Forecasting Groundwater Storage Dynamics in an Arid Region Using Hybrid Machine Learning Under Climate and Land-Use Change: Al-Arish Basin, Sinai A. M.Raslan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2026.104249
- Extreme climate and hydroclimatic modelling of water stress: Implications for livelihoods in Rajshahi, Bangladesh M. Ullah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clwat.2026.100255
- Stakeholder-informed mapping of climate change impacts on the water-energy-food-environment nexus in the Lake Victoria basin J. Teran et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/ae6e69
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- Effects of Long-Term Vegetation Restoration on Green Water Utilization Heterogeneity in the Loess Plateau Based on Field Experiments and Modeling L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14050644
- Impacts of different land and water management interventions on runoff and sediment yield under climate change: a case study from the Bale Eco-Region, Ethiopia T. Tarkegn et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2025.2561854
- Multi-gauge calibration comparison for simulating streamflow across the Major River Basins in Madagascar: SWAT + Toolbox, R-SWAT, and SWAT + Editor Hard calibration R. Harifidy et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2024.188
- Alterations in Hydrological Responses under Changing Climate and Land Use/Land Cover across Contrasting Agroecological Environments: A Case Study on the Chemoga Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia T. Meshesha et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16071037
- Effect of land use change and soil depth on physico-chemical soil properties in Fagita Lekoma district, Northwestern Ethiopia S. Yenesew et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44378-025-00106-8
- Modeling climate and land use land cover changes impact on water balance in the Rift Valley Lake Basin, Ethiopia Y. Woldemariam et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05834-z
- A supply-flow-demand network framework for unraveling the compounded impacts of future climate and functional space on urban water-soil ecosystem services Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2026.107144
- Assessing future intra-basin water availability in madagascar: Accounting for climate change, population growth, and land use change R. Harifidy et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.121711
- Rethinking energy planning to mitigate the impacts of African hydropower A. Carlino et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01367-x
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- Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective F. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177901
- One third of African rivers fail to meet the ’good ambient water quality’ nutrient targets A. Nkwasa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112544
- Forty-year data analysis of droughts and drought-flood dynamics: impacts of cascading reservoirs Y. Ning et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134957
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- Interactive driven force analysis of blue and green water for Yalong River Basin of southwest China based on a hybrid modeling approach Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103133
- Repercussions of rainfall and river flow trends under a changing climate on local communities’ livelihood strategies in Southern Tanzania H. Myeya et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2025.2582905
- A coupled land use change-ecohydrological model for multi-seasonal arid agricultural systems: an Egyptian case study A. Sattar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106845
- Modeling future streamflow under climate and land use scenarios in the lower Okavango River basin K. Negussie et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsrma.2026.1773448
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- Impact of global change on water availability in Madagascar: evaluation of ISIMIP3b GCM performance and comparison with Soil and Water Assessment Tool modeling with Inter- and Intra-basin approaches Z. Rakotoarimanana et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-04003-5
- Evaluation and projection of CMIP6 simulations of climate variables for the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia Y. Woldemariam et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05356-8
- A global water database for the energy transition S. Sterl https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00517-5
- Water supply securing in Bouregreg Basin under a changing climate W. El Harraki et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202670801003
- Hydrology and Climate Change in Africa: Contemporary Challenges, and Future Resilience Pathways O. Adeyeri https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152247
- The importance of monitoring land use/land cover changes for assessment of sediment yield impacts: A multi-criteria decision making approach in a subbasin Ş. Güvel & M. Akgül https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1773971
- Crossing Borders: Climate Change and the Policy Implications for Regional Security Cooperation in Africa S. Nkwe https://doi.org/10.1080/18186874.2025.2511643
41 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeling impacts of climate change on blue and green water, and crop yield using SWAT + in Lake Tana sub-basin (Ethiopia) T. Tarkegn et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02641-3
- Assessing climate change's impacts on hydrology using the SWAT model: a literature review W. El Harraki & M. Zemzami https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.665
- How do global soil databases influence streamflow simulation? A SWAT+ study in the Lake Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia T. Tarkegn et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103455
- Critical zones, disaster risk science, and education for sustainable development in Africa W. Lunga et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2025.1635554
- Streamflow variability under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios using QSWAT plus for Subansiri River Basin in Arunachal Pradesh, India G. Goswami et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05496-x
- Future Cropland Exposure to Drought Frequency Under Climate Change and Land-Use Scenarios in Nigeria D. Awhari et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-01015-0
- River flow and sediment concentration changes in the Wu-Xi River, central Taiwan, under CMIP6 scenarios Y. Su & Y. Chen https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2026.299
- Catchment-based water resources modelling and planning of the transboundary Inkisi River in the Congo Basin L. Nkaba et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2025.2511806
- Unravelling the hydrologic impact of climate change in the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania E. Mukama et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae1ed9
- Forecasting Groundwater Storage Dynamics in an Arid Region Using Hybrid Machine Learning Under Climate and Land-Use Change: Al-Arish Basin, Sinai A. M.Raslan et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2026.104249
- Extreme climate and hydroclimatic modelling of water stress: Implications for livelihoods in Rajshahi, Bangladesh M. Ullah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clwat.2026.100255
- Stakeholder-informed mapping of climate change impacts on the water-energy-food-environment nexus in the Lake Victoria basin J. Teran et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/3033-4942/ae6e69
- Spatiotemporal land use land cover dynamics and rainfall-runoff responses in the urbanizing Gdynia, Poland A. Galata et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39241-9
- Estimation of Incoming Sediments and Useful Life of Haditha Reservoir with Limited Measurements Using Hydrological Modeling A. Ajaaj et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11080128
- Effects of Long-Term Vegetation Restoration on Green Water Utilization Heterogeneity in the Loess Plateau Based on Field Experiments and Modeling L. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14050644
- Impacts of different land and water management interventions on runoff and sediment yield under climate change: a case study from the Bale Eco-Region, Ethiopia T. Tarkegn et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2025.2561854
- Multi-gauge calibration comparison for simulating streamflow across the Major River Basins in Madagascar: SWAT + Toolbox, R-SWAT, and SWAT + Editor Hard calibration R. Harifidy et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2024.188
- Alterations in Hydrological Responses under Changing Climate and Land Use/Land Cover across Contrasting Agroecological Environments: A Case Study on the Chemoga Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia T. Meshesha et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16071037
- Effect of land use change and soil depth on physico-chemical soil properties in Fagita Lekoma district, Northwestern Ethiopia S. Yenesew et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44378-025-00106-8
- Modeling climate and land use land cover changes impact on water balance in the Rift Valley Lake Basin, Ethiopia Y. Woldemariam et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05834-z
- A supply-flow-demand network framework for unraveling the compounded impacts of future climate and functional space on urban water-soil ecosystem services Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2026.107144
- Assessing future intra-basin water availability in madagascar: Accounting for climate change, population growth, and land use change R. Harifidy et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.121711
- Rethinking energy planning to mitigate the impacts of African hydropower A. Carlino et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01367-x
- Evaluating anthropogenic influences on watershed hydrological dynamics in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands A. Mitiku et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2026.1818498
- Hydrological modelling for water resource assessment in drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa under climate and land use change: a systematic review E. Meresa et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2026.2678674
- Integrated Assessment of Climate-Driven Streamflow Changes in a Transboundary Lake Basin Using CMIP6-SWAT+-BMA: A Sustainability Perspective F. Xiao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17177901
- One third of African rivers fail to meet the ’good ambient water quality’ nutrient targets A. Nkwasa et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112544
- Forty-year data analysis of droughts and drought-flood dynamics: impacts of cascading reservoirs Y. Ning et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134957
- CoSWAT Model v1: A high-resolution global SWAT+ hydrological model C. Chawanda et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6901-2025
- Interactive driven force analysis of blue and green water for Yalong River Basin of southwest China based on a hybrid modeling approach Y. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103133
- Repercussions of rainfall and river flow trends under a changing climate on local communities’ livelihood strategies in Southern Tanzania H. Myeya et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2025.2582905
- A coupled land use change-ecohydrological model for multi-seasonal arid agricultural systems: an Egyptian case study A. Sattar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106845
- Modeling future streamflow under climate and land use scenarios in the lower Okavango River basin K. Negussie et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsrma.2026.1773448
- Multimodel analysis of climate-induced flow variability in transboundary tropical basins B. Ernest et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2026.407
- Impact of global change on water availability in Madagascar: evaluation of ISIMIP3b GCM performance and comparison with Soil and Water Assessment Tool modeling with Inter- and Intra-basin approaches Z. Rakotoarimanana et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-04003-5
- Evaluation and projection of CMIP6 simulations of climate variables for the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia Y. Woldemariam et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05356-8
- A global water database for the energy transition S. Sterl https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00517-5
- Water supply securing in Bouregreg Basin under a changing climate W. El Harraki et al. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202670801003
- Hydrology and Climate Change in Africa: Contemporary Challenges, and Future Resilience Pathways O. Adeyeri https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152247
- The importance of monitoring land use/land cover changes for assessment of sediment yield impacts: A multi-criteria decision making approach in a subbasin Ş. Güvel & M. Akgül https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1773971
- Crossing Borders: Climate Change and the Policy Implications for Regional Security Cooperation in Africa S. Nkwe https://doi.org/10.1080/18186874.2025.2511643
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 25 Jun 2026
Short summary
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change. The SWAT+ hydrological model was used to simulate the hydrological cycle in Africa, and results show likely decreases in river flows in the Zambezi and Congo rivers and highest flows in the Niger River basins due to climate change. Land cover change had the biggest impact in the Congo River basin, emphasizing the importance of including land-use change in studies.
Africa's water resources are being negatively impacted by climate change and land-use change....
