Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration

Peiris, Thedini Asali; Döll, Petra

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023

Articles | Volume 27, issue 20

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 27, issue 20

Research article

|

19 Oct 2023

Research article |

| 19 Oct 2023

Improving the quantification of climate change hazards by hydrological models: a simple ensemble approach for considering the uncertain effect of vegetation response to climate change on potential evapotranspiration

Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3663-2023-supplement

Data sets

WaterGAP2.2d model derived Potential evapotranspiration and Renewable water resources variables with standard and modified PET calculation methods Thedini Asali Peiris and Petra Döll https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6593136

Short summary

Hydrological models often overlook vegetation's response to CO₂ and climate, impairing their ability to forecast impacts on evapotranspiration and water resources. To address this, we suggest involving two model variants: (1) the standard method and (2) a modified approach (proposed here) based on the Priestley–Taylor equation (PT-MA). While not universally applicable, a dual approach helps consider uncertainties related to vegetation responses to climate change, enhancing model representation.