Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Mar 2022
Research article |
| 14 Mar 2022
| 14 Mar 2022
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Leah A. Jackson-Blake
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0349 Oslo, Norway
François Clayer
Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA), 0349 Oslo, Norway
Elvira de Eyto
Fisheries Ecosystem Advisory Services, Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, County Mayo F28 PF65, Ireland
Andrew S. French
Fisheries Ecosystem Advisory Services, Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, County Mayo F28 PF65, Ireland
current address: School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork T23 N63K, Ireland
María Dolores Frías
Grupo de Meteorología, Dpto. de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Daniel Mercado-Bettín
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), 17003 Girona, Spain
Universitat de Girona, 17004 Girona, Spain
Tadhg Moore
Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk Institute of Technology, A91 K584 Dundalk, Ireland
current address: Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
Laura Puértolas
Albirem Sustainability, Ltd., 08014 Barcelona, Spain
Russell Poole
Fisheries Ecosystem Advisory Services, Marine Institute, Furnace, Newport, County Mayo F28 PF65, Ireland
Karsten Rinke
Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany
Muhammed Shikhani
Department of Lake Research, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany
Leon van der Linden
SA Water, Adelaide SA 5000, Australia
Rafael Marcé
Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), 17003 Girona, Spain
Universitat de Girona, 17004 Girona, Spain
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Cited
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network L. Jackson-Blake et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022
- Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation P. Le et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-39463-9
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- Machine learning-based anomaly detection of groundwater microdynamics: case study of Chengdu, China H. Shi et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-38447-5
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students' understanding of ecological uncertainty W. Woelmer et al. 10.1002/ecs2.4628
- Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools F. Clayer et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
- Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality M. Lofton et al. 10.1111/gcb.16590
- Application of the Observation‐Oriented CNOP‐P Sensitivity Analysis Method in Evapotranspiration Simulation and Prediction Over the Tibetan Plateau G. Sun et al. 10.1029/2022WR033216
- Modeling the effect of soil fertility management options on maize yield stability under variable climate in a sub-humid zone in Ghana D. MacCarthy et al. 10.3389/fsufs.2023.1132732
10 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network L. Jackson-Blake et al. 10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022
- Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation P. Le et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-39463-9
- Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes Y. Du et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acf678
- Machine learning-based anomaly detection of groundwater microdynamics: case study of Chengdu, China H. Shi et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-38447-5
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students' understanding of ecological uncertainty W. Woelmer et al. 10.1002/ecs2.4628
- Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools F. Clayer et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023
- Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality M. Lofton et al. 10.1111/gcb.16590
- Application of the Observation‐Oriented CNOP‐P Sensitivity Analysis Method in Evapotranspiration Simulation and Prediction Over the Tibetan Plateau G. Sun et al. 10.1029/2022WR033216
- Modeling the effect of soil fertility management options on maize yield stability under variable climate in a sub-humid zone in Ghana D. MacCarthy et al. 10.3389/fsufs.2023.1132732
Latest update: 18 Apr 2024
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality,...
