Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1131-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
Research article
 | 
28 Feb 2022
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2022

Temporally resolved coastal hypoxia forecasting and uncertainty assessment via Bayesian mechanistic modeling

Alexey Katin, Dario Del Giudice, and Daniel R. Obenour

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Latest update: 28 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Low oxygen conditions (hypoxia) occur almost every summer in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here, we present a new approach for forecasting hypoxia from June through September, leveraging a process-based model and an advanced statistical framework. We also show how using spring hydrometeorological information can improve forecast accuracy while reducing uncertainties. The proposed forecasting system shows the potential to support the management of threatened coastal ecosystems and fisheries.
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Frontiers in the application of Bayesian approaches in water...