Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 27 Sep 2021
| 27 Sep 2021
Uncertainties and their interaction in flood hazard assessment with climate change
Hadush Meresa
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of
Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
Conor Murphy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of
Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
Rowan Fealy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of
Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
Saeed Golian
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of
Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The need to reconfigure consistency and variability to best manage changing flood risks in Aotearoa-New Zealand S. Serrao-Neumann et al. 10.1080/03036758.2023.2211777
- Coastal Flood Risk and Smart Resilience Evaluation under a Changing Climate P. Shen et al. 10.34133/olar.0029
- The Cost of Imperfect Knowledge: How Epistemic Uncertainties Influence Flood Hazard Assessments M. Balbi & D. Lallemant 10.1029/2023WR035685
- Climate change impacts on spatial and seasonal meteorological drought characteristics for the island of Ireland H. Meresa & C. Murphy 10.1002/joc.8217
- Climate Gentrification: Valuing Perceived Climate Risks in Property Prices J. Thompson et al. 10.1080/24694452.2022.2156318
- Are open-source hydrodynamic models efficient in quantifying flood risks over mountainous terrains? An exhaustive analysis over the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan region T. Namgyal et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165357
- Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Q. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415
- Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles C. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s11269-023-03458-4
- The New Bias Correction Method for Daily Extremes Precipitation over South Korea using CMIP6 GCMs Y. Song et al. 10.1007/s11269-022-03338-3
- Evaluating the uncertainty of climate model structure and bias correction on the hydrological impact of projected climate change in a Mediterranean catchment A. Senatore et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101120
- Quantifying cascading uncertainty in compound flood modeling with linked process-based and machine learning models D. Muñoz et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024
- Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios J. Boulange et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-06017-7
- Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.3390/w14101556
- Uncertainty analysis of 100-year flood maps under climate change scenarios S. Alipour et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130502
- Evaluating flash flood simulation capability with respect to rainfall temporal variability in a small mountainous catchment X. Wang et al. 10.1007/s11442-023-2188-5
- Assessment of global reanalysis precipitation for hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions: A case study of Kenya M. Wanzala et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101105
- Understanding Flood Vulnerability in Local Communities of Kogi State, Nigeria, Using an Index-Based Approach P. Oyedele et al. 10.3390/w14172746
- Precipitation Bias Correction: A Novel Semi‐parametric Quantile Mapping Method C. Rajulapati & S. Papalexiou 10.1029/2023EA002823
- Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.1029/2022JD038025
- Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data A. Kay 10.1007/s10584-022-03405-z
- Trends in reconstructed monthly, seasonal and annual flows for Irish catchments (1900–2016) P. O'Connor et al. 10.1002/wea.4288
- WITHDRAWN: Mapping the groundwater memory across Ireland: a step towards a groundwater drought susceptibility assessment P. Schuler et al. 10.1016/j.hydroa.2022.100131
- Evaluation of future flood probability in agricultural reservoir watersheds using an integrated flood simulation system J. Kwak et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130463
- Analysing Urban Flooding Risk with CMIP5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections R. Oyelakin et al. 10.3390/w16030474
- Mapping the groundwater memory across Ireland: A step towards a groundwater drought susceptibility assessment P. Schuler et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128277
- Significant contribution of bias correction methods to uncertainty in future runoff projections under CMIP6 climate change S. Chae & E. Chung 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101973
- Implementing Climate Change Adaptation in Territory Spatial Planning Systems: Challenges and Approaches Based on Practices in Guiyang L. Zong et al. 10.3390/ijerph20010490
- The emergence of a climate change signal in long-term Irish meteorological observations C. Murphy et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100608
- An Integrative Framework for Assessment of Urban Flood Response to Changing Climate L. Pal et al. 10.1029/2023WR034466
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The need to reconfigure consistency and variability to best manage changing flood risks in Aotearoa-New Zealand S. Serrao-Neumann et al. 10.1080/03036758.2023.2211777
- Coastal Flood Risk and Smart Resilience Evaluation under a Changing Climate P. Shen et al. 10.34133/olar.0029
- The Cost of Imperfect Knowledge: How Epistemic Uncertainties Influence Flood Hazard Assessments M. Balbi & D. Lallemant 10.1029/2023WR035685
- Climate change impacts on spatial and seasonal meteorological drought characteristics for the island of Ireland H. Meresa & C. Murphy 10.1002/joc.8217
- Climate Gentrification: Valuing Perceived Climate Risks in Property Prices J. Thompson et al. 10.1080/24694452.2022.2156318
- Are open-source hydrodynamic models efficient in quantifying flood risks over mountainous terrains? An exhaustive analysis over the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan region T. Namgyal et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165357
- Assessing uncertainty in hydrological projections arising from local-scale internal variability of climate Q. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129415
- Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles C. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s11269-023-03458-4
- The New Bias Correction Method for Daily Extremes Precipitation over South Korea using CMIP6 GCMs Y. Song et al. 10.1007/s11269-022-03338-3
- Evaluating the uncertainty of climate model structure and bias correction on the hydrological impact of projected climate change in a Mediterranean catchment A. Senatore et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101120
- Quantifying cascading uncertainty in compound flood modeling with linked process-based and machine learning models D. Muñoz et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2531-2024
- Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios J. Boulange et al. 10.1007/s11069-023-06017-7
- Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.3390/w14101556
- Uncertainty analysis of 100-year flood maps under climate change scenarios S. Alipour et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130502
- Evaluating flash flood simulation capability with respect to rainfall temporal variability in a small mountainous catchment X. Wang et al. 10.1007/s11442-023-2188-5
- Assessment of global reanalysis precipitation for hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions: A case study of Kenya M. Wanzala et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101105
- Understanding Flood Vulnerability in Local Communities of Kogi State, Nigeria, Using an Index-Based Approach P. Oyedele et al. 10.3390/w14172746
- Precipitation Bias Correction: A Novel Semi‐parametric Quantile Mapping Method C. Rajulapati & S. Papalexiou 10.1029/2023EA002823
- Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments H. Meresa et al. 10.1029/2022JD038025
- Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data A. Kay 10.1007/s10584-022-03405-z
- Trends in reconstructed monthly, seasonal and annual flows for Irish catchments (1900–2016) P. O'Connor et al. 10.1002/wea.4288
- WITHDRAWN: Mapping the groundwater memory across Ireland: a step towards a groundwater drought susceptibility assessment P. Schuler et al. 10.1016/j.hydroa.2022.100131
- Evaluation of future flood probability in agricultural reservoir watersheds using an integrated flood simulation system J. Kwak et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130463
- Analysing Urban Flooding Risk with CMIP5 and CMIP6 Climate Projections R. Oyelakin et al. 10.3390/w16030474
- Mapping the groundwater memory across Ireland: A step towards a groundwater drought susceptibility assessment P. Schuler et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128277
- Significant contribution of bias correction methods to uncertainty in future runoff projections under CMIP6 climate change S. Chae & E. Chung 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101973
- Implementing Climate Change Adaptation in Territory Spatial Planning Systems: Challenges and Approaches Based on Practices in Guiyang L. Zong et al. 10.3390/ijerph20010490
- The emergence of a climate change signal in long-term Irish meteorological observations C. Murphy et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100608
- An Integrative Framework for Assessment of Urban Flood Response to Changing Climate L. Pal et al. 10.1029/2023WR034466
Latest update: 20 Nov 2024
Short summary
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty...
