Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
Research article
 | 
10 Aug 2017
Research article |  | 10 Aug 2017

Residual uncertainty estimation using instance-based learning with applications to hydrologic forecasting

Omar Wani, Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Dimitri P. Solomatine

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Short summary
We generate uncertainty intervals for hydrologic model predictions using a simple instance-based learning scheme. Errors made by the model in some specific hydrometeorological conditions in the past are used to predict the probability distribution of its errors during forecasting. We test it for two different case studies in England. We find that this technique, even though conceptually simple and easy to implement, performs as well as some other sophisticated uncertainty estimation methods.
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