Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
HESS
Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
Research article
 | 
12 Jul 2016
Research article |  | 12 Jul 2016

Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach

Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, and Antje Weisheimer

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Short summary
Soil moisture memory is a key aspect of seasonal climate predictions, through feedback between the land surface and the atmosphere. Estimates have been made of the length of soil moisture memory; however, we show here how estimates of memory show large variation with uncertain model parameters. Explicit representation of model uncertainty may then improve the realism of simulations and seasonal climate forecasts.
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